Kamala Trump
Verified User
King. You're an idiot.
Quick Logic Problem
- Thread starter KingCondanomation
- Start date
Again, it doesn't matter to the math who you ask about their personal anecdotal experience. It does matter to the math at all.
You skew your own results because you take sets that were unnecessary and poll them on results not on probability. The is absolutely a matter of applying incorrect mathematical and logic principles and using them to create a skewed result in a survey.
It would be as valid as a push-poll.
You skew your own results because you take sets that were unnecessary and poll them on results not on probability. The is absolutely a matter of applying incorrect mathematical and logic principles and using them to create a skewed result in a survey.
It would be as valid as a push-poll.
KingCondanomation
New member
I care little for personal anecdotal experience, but 18000 people's anecdotal experience combined is a more than reasonable reflection of what exists.
Of course she was polling for results and not probability, the probability was already shown with deductive reasoning with the only valid options left being boy-girl, girl-boy, boy-boy. All the survey does is get real world results that VALIDATE the probability she explained.
It doesn't matter, if the original assumption to the survey was incorrect as in this case, how many anecdotal stories you get the answer is flawed because the method was flawed.
KingCondanomation
New member
What assumption?
The one we've been speaking about for about a billion posts.
The math was simply done incorrectly, using the incorrect assumption they created flawed methodology for the survey.
The plain and simple fact is, it doesn't matter which position the child was born in.
As I showed.
When you name the child you get four possibilities that equal 50% probability. The placement of birth is superfluous to the math and should not have been added to the methodology of the "survey".
Seriously, this is getting stupid. I fricking have a degree in this.
It's like arguing with an idiot about the "missing dollar". You just aren't this stupid.
There are reasons some "surveys" are flawed, one is working toward the result you want to see. Another is spurious assumption from the beginning. I believe that both took part in fooling you into flawed reasoning.
KingCondanomation
New member
Damo try naming all of them. So instead of:
John - Girl
John - Boy
Boy - John
Girl - John
we would have (as we know there is a boy, there is also a possible other boy and a possible other girl) say John, James and Jill:
John - Jill
John - James
James - John
Jill - John
Jill - James
James - Jill
It's still a 1 in 3 chance of having 2 boys.
You can tout your degree and I respect that but I'm sure the algebra teacher in the tale has a degree as well and the smartest woman basically does problem solving in her column for years as her living.
BUT I didn't want to see that result in the survey, I mentioned previously that I, like you, thought this lady was wrong and it was 1 in 2 for the person with one boy.
And the assumption was that mothers with children where at least 1 is a boy should tell her what sex both children are. The results backed up the logic.
Thorn
Member
I still do from time to time. Also I know that your degree is in mathematics and you probably took your share of stats courses. I also taught statistics at the undergraduate level.
Kamala Trump
Verified User
King. You're an imbecile.
KingCondanomation
New member
I still do from time to time. Also I know that your degree is in mathematics and you probably took your share of stats courses. I also taught statistics at the undergraduate level.
I also used to do lots of Logic Problems, though not in a while, now when I have time I do something called Trigons. I once also created a couple of Crosssum puzzles, now sometimes called karuku.
KingCondanomation
New member
Rooster bait, I got a secret for you, even when you are right, no one cares or wants anything to do with you, because you are just some jew-hating Nazi.
You're somewhere floating in between being a hater, troll and conspiracy theorist. Yet you're not really any good at any of those, to sum it up, there is no point to your life.
Kamala Trump
Verified User
At least I understand the basic math of probability questions.
Excellent. Maybe you can figure a way to explain it to him then. I give up.I still do from time to time. Also I know that your degree is in mathematics and you probably took your share of stats courses. I also taught statistics at the undergraduate level.
(grins merrily, rubbing his hands together, laughing slightly hysterically)...
Only one of them is known, the known quantity cannot be both James and John. Your assumption, and hers, is spurious. And she may have a degree, but she somehow got it without understanding basic statistics.
The known quantity, regardless of birth order would be named "John" for easy access.
John - Girl
John - Boy
Girl - John
Boy - John...
The name of the unknown quantity doesn't make it capable of being the known quantity, it is irrelevant to the procedure.
Thorn
Member
I tried, I tried! I'd only have said exactly what you did (and I said some of it). At one point I even confused myself. Then had to leave for our lesson.
BTW if we ever end up competing in Denver I'll let you know. People who've watched us in practice have been encouraging.
Very cool. That would be awesome.I tried, I tried! I'd only have said exactly what you did (and I said some of it). At one point I even confused myself. Then had to leave for our lesson.
BTW if we ever end up competing in Denver I'll let you know. People who've watched us in practice have been encouraging.
KingCondanomation
New member
Alright, this settles it once and for all.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox
I even found your (common) mistake in there regarding your naming:
John - Girl
John - Boy
Girl - John
Boy - John
You might think that the probability returns to 1/2 for having 2 boys. But this is wrong because it doesn't take into account different frequencies of each of these answers. The likelihood of a boy being named John and a boy not being named John are not equal.
Read through that link, it says it's a well known example in probability theory so presumably has been examined by thousands of scholars.
If that can't convince you then I give up.
It doesn't matter what name I picked.
The name of the "known" is "John" we know he could be either first or second born. Therefore we put the 'known' into the chart then fill in the variables with the variable symbol, in this case it is either "boy" or "girl".
Basically, we know that Momma has one boy, for the sake of this explanation I named this known quantity "john".
In a well written logic assignment you would place him into the chart as the "given".
It does not matter one iota if John was born first or second, his sibling is equally probable to be a boy or a girl.
KingCondanomation
New member
Damo, this is nuts, the example is well-known in probability theory, read it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox
Bayesian approach
Consider the sample space of 2-child families.
Let X be the event that the family has one boy and one girl.
Let Y be the event that the family has at least one boy.
Then:
Or, the set {GB, BG, BB}, in which two out of the three possibilities includes a girl.
Therefore the probability is 2/3.
Ok, done, over. There is a 2 in 3 chance of a woman with one boy having a girl and thus a 1 in 3 chance of having 2 boys.