Spotify Needs Joe Rogan
Disappointing margins and subscriber forecasts sink stocks and show why streaming platforms need podcast listeners.
It is unclear if Spotify Technology is feeling any business impact from the Joe Rogan controversy so far. It is clear why the streaming platform is unlikely to pull the plug on him.
The streaming platform’s outlook that was included with its fourth-quarter results late Wednesday left the question of the controversy’s impact unanswered.
Spotify’s projection of adding 3 million paid subscribers in the current quarter was 1 million shy of Wall Street’s forecasts. But it was identical to the 3 million added in last year’s first quarter, and in line with long-term trends showing the first quarter of the year to be the company’s weakest seasonal period for growth. The company’s revenue projection for the period was in line with analysts’ forecasts.
An unforgiving market mood didn’t help. Facebook parent Meta Platforms shed one-quarter of its massive market value after reporting its first-ever decline in daily active users.
Spotify executives said on the company’s earnings call that they expect a “favorable gross-margin trend” this year similar to 2021, when that key metric grew to 26.8% from 25.6% the previous year.
Indeed, Wall Street expects Spotify’s gross margin line to keep expanding, hitting close to 30% in 2024. And that reflects why the company’s sharp pivot to podcasts that began in 2020 is so important.
Unlike recorded music—which is controlled by three large labels with a lot of leverage over royalty rates—podcasts live in an unstructured market that still has a lot of untapped advertising potential.
Spotify’s business needs all the podcasters it can get. Especially ones like Rogan, who draws listeners by the millions.
Facebook has now shown a stark example of how investors treat technology platforms with shrinking user bases.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/spotify-needs-joe-rogan-and-music-fans-11643912174