Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
I was driving across the state the other day to go visit my brother and I listened to right wing radio just to hear what new propaganda they were spewing. Little did I realize that they are in full blown panic mode about the polls and the significant bounce Obama recieved after the Democratic convention. It was hillareous. They were rolling out one conspiracy theory after the other. I hope everyone realizes that there was no bounce for Obama. It's just a conspiracy by the leftist media. Mitt is actually kicking his ass. 
Now the tracking polls are showing that in the swing States Obama recieved such a large bounce in michigan that it's no longer considered a toss up State. That puts Obama dangerously close to the 270 electoral votes he needs. Not only that but the polls are showing Obama recieved significant bounces in both Ohio and Florida. If Mitt loses either of those States the fat lady can start singing. It's all over for him.
So how does this spell the end of the Southern Strategy? Because demographics have changed.
From 1968 the Republicans have brilliantly exploited the racial and cultural resentments of southern whites. Republican control of the White House for 28 of the last 44 years and Congress for 16 of the last 18 years is firmly rooted in the overwhelming support from southern whites. The southern strategy has been premised on the souths unique identity of a more rural, less educated, more militaristic, more religious, less tolerant and more racially bigoted white population. It has worked brilliantly in southern regions where backwardness has not changed.
The problem for the GOP is that modernity has invaded the south. Standards of education there are creeping upwards. Immigration of better educated whites and middle class racial minorities from northern States have changed the demographics, particularly in key southern States (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and to a lesser extent Georgia).
It gets worse for the GOP. The southern strategy has alienated large segments of the population across the nation. Considering the declining population growth of whites in our country that's a serious problem. Over 90% of blacks vote Democrat. Two thirds of Latin Americans vote democratic. Over 90% of the GLBT community vote Democratic. Over 60% of women vote Democratic. Over 60% of those under 25 vote Democratic. The southern strategy is doomed by the numbers. There simply isn't enough angry white men to go around. To win election using the southern strategy the GOP will require white voter turnout of 74% with 60% of those whites voting for Romney. Considering declining white demographics, that's not likely to happen.
So it's do or die time for the Southern Strategy. If Mitt looses and it's looking pretty good that he will, this will probably be the end of the southern strategy for the Presidency as they will no longer be able to build a ruling coalition using it. It can probably exist for a few more election cycles for congressional elections but when that dies, then so does the GOP's southern strategy at the State level.
So if President Obama wins re-election the historical significance will be the end of the political over representation of the southern states. It will be interesting to see what direction the GOP will take from there.
Now the tracking polls are showing that in the swing States Obama recieved such a large bounce in michigan that it's no longer considered a toss up State. That puts Obama dangerously close to the 270 electoral votes he needs. Not only that but the polls are showing Obama recieved significant bounces in both Ohio and Florida. If Mitt loses either of those States the fat lady can start singing. It's all over for him.
So how does this spell the end of the Southern Strategy? Because demographics have changed.
From 1968 the Republicans have brilliantly exploited the racial and cultural resentments of southern whites. Republican control of the White House for 28 of the last 44 years and Congress for 16 of the last 18 years is firmly rooted in the overwhelming support from southern whites. The southern strategy has been premised on the souths unique identity of a more rural, less educated, more militaristic, more religious, less tolerant and more racially bigoted white population. It has worked brilliantly in southern regions where backwardness has not changed.
The problem for the GOP is that modernity has invaded the south. Standards of education there are creeping upwards. Immigration of better educated whites and middle class racial minorities from northern States have changed the demographics, particularly in key southern States (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and to a lesser extent Georgia).
It gets worse for the GOP. The southern strategy has alienated large segments of the population across the nation. Considering the declining population growth of whites in our country that's a serious problem. Over 90% of blacks vote Democrat. Two thirds of Latin Americans vote democratic. Over 90% of the GLBT community vote Democratic. Over 60% of women vote Democratic. Over 60% of those under 25 vote Democratic. The southern strategy is doomed by the numbers. There simply isn't enough angry white men to go around. To win election using the southern strategy the GOP will require white voter turnout of 74% with 60% of those whites voting for Romney. Considering declining white demographics, that's not likely to happen.
So it's do or die time for the Southern Strategy. If Mitt looses and it's looking pretty good that he will, this will probably be the end of the southern strategy for the Presidency as they will no longer be able to build a ruling coalition using it. It can probably exist for a few more election cycles for congressional elections but when that dies, then so does the GOP's southern strategy at the State level.
So if President Obama wins re-election the historical significance will be the end of the political over representation of the southern states. It will be interesting to see what direction the GOP will take from there.
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(sorry...I ca't resist softballs)