COVID is the big unknown here because if there's a fifth and sixth wave of COVID this winter, it could wipe out as many as 300,000 more people before the November 2022 elections.
And I think we can all safely say that almost every single one of those inevitable 300,000 deaths will be unvaccinated morons who listened to propagandists like Anatta; that is certainly going to make a difference in at least 1 election next year, and probably dozens, if not hundreds of others.
In all, by November 2022, COVID will have probably claimed about 1,000,000 lives in the US, and probably close to 3/4 of them are hardcore, right-wing, "very fine people" that the GOP needs to survive.
That's why I said before that Conservatives will start pretending the vaccination effort was a secret push to discourage Conservatives from getting vaccinated.