Should Biden run again?

cawacko said:
Hard to beat the power of incumbency. But if the Democrats lose the midterms and his poll numbers don’t improve in those following months it’s definitely not unreasonable to think there will be a call for him to not run again.
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And how would that help Democrats? Biden’s failures would still be attached to the Democratic candidate and they lose the power of the incumbency and the inevitable primary challenge as to who would replace him would hurt Democrats as much as losing the power of the incumbency.

If the election were to occur next month I feel fairly confident Biden would win. He has a few major strikes against but he would need even more strikes against him than he currently has.

Losing the midterms is certainly a blow against Biden but it’s not as big a blow as losing the incumbency which is twice as bad because of the contested primary that would almost inevitably result.

The polls are almost meaningless as predictors due to small sample sizes and inherent bias and confirmation bias. So it wouldn’t be logical to base his decision on poll results unless they are very lopsided. Which is unlikely to happen given that Biden’s opponent would be Trump or a Trump sycophant.

So as of right now Biden is sitting in a pretty good position to get re-elected. Even assuming Democrats lose the midterms, as many are currently predicting, the only other real strike against Biden currently is he’s as charismatic as a bowl of cold porridge. The GOP isn’t exactly better in that department.

Inflation alone isn’t going to hurt Biden’s chances as last long as we’re seeing significant real economic growth, which we are. Unless that changes, and it could, but it hasn’t yet and all Biden needs to do to win on the economic front is to not let the economy fall into recession while maintaining modest economic growth and he wins on the economic front.

In addition if before his term is up there is a resolution to the Ukrainian/Russian situation that is successful for NATO and the economy stabilizes then Biden would almost certainly be re-elected.

So as the situation currently is Biden would probably win. A lot of things would have to change before Biden would be at a disadvantage so, health permitting, why wouldn’t he run with the significant advantages he currently has in addition to his incumbency?

Don’t get me wrong. Those changes could happen but until they do Biden would be crazy not to run unless he has a serious health issue.
 
Inflation alone isn’t going to hurt Biden’s chances as last long as we’re seeing significant real economic growth, which we are. Unless that changes, and it could, but it hasn’t yet and all Biden needs to do to win on the economic front is to not let the economy fall into recession while maintaining modest economic growth and he wins on the economic front.
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absolutely incorrect.
Nobody votes on a GDP number - they vote their pocketbooks, and that means inflation
Wealthy might be happy to write off debts with inflated dollars, but the voters just see their standard of living deteriorate
 
anatta said:
absolutely incorrect.
Nobody votes on a GDP number - they vote their pocketbooks, and that means inflation
Wealthy might be happy to write off debts with inflated dollars, but the voters just see their standard of living deteriorate
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Do you even understand what the term “Real Economic Growth” means? It means economic growth when adjusted for inflation.

I’m just stating a “Thank you Captain Obvious” fact. If left unaddressed the inflation could lead to a decline in “real economic growth”. Then you would have a point. Until that actually happens you don’t.
 
evince said:
No other DOJ head ever did anything like he did


He will be remembered for that shit over everything he did in his life
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To be fair, the Hildebeast could have run a better campaign. She will never be able to make that connection with people that Obama or even Biden has. Some people just don't have "it".
 
ExpressLane said:
Dear idiot, Comey was overstepping his authority to say Clinton would not be indicted. That was the USAG's job you know the same AG that was having a secret meeting with Bill Clinton on the tarmac of an airport. The classified documents laws don't require proof of intend .
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Would you like to talk about secret meetings? How about the hundreds of contacts the trump campaign had with Russian agents and the secret trips Jerod, took to Saudi Arabia to line his own pockets?

You guys don't think before you post.

Stupid Nazi.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53830374

Trump campaign Russia contacts were 'grave threat', says Senate report
 
Mott the Hoople said:
And how would that help Democrats? Biden’s failures would still be attached to the Democratic candidate and they lose the power of the incumbency and the inevitable primary challenge as to who would replace him would hurt Democrats as much as losing the power of the incumbency.

If the election were to occur next month I feel fairly confident Biden would win. He has a few major strikes against but he would need even more strikes against him than he currently has.

Losing the midterms is certainly a blow against Biden but it’s not as big a blow as losing the incumbency which is twice as bad because of the contested primary that would almost inevitably result.

The polls are almost meaningless as predictors due to small sample sizes and inherent bias and confirmation bias. So it wouldn’t be logical to base his decision on poll results unless they are very lopsided. Which is unlikely to happen given that Biden’s opponent would be Trump or a Trump sycophant.

So as of right now Biden is sitting in a pretty good position to get re-elected. Even assuming Democrats lose the midterms, as many are currently predicting, the only other real strike against Biden currently is he’s as charismatic as a bowl of cold porridge. The GOP isn’t exactly better in that department.

Inflation alone isn’t going to hurt Biden’s chances as last long as we’re seeing significant real economic growth, which we are. Unless that changes, and it could, but it hasn’t yet and all Biden needs to do to win on the economic front is to not let the economy fall into recession while maintaining modest economic growth and he wins on the economic front.

In addition if before his term is up there is a resolution to the Ukrainian/Russian situation that is successful for NATO and the economy stabilizes then Biden would almost certainly be re-elected.

So as the situation currently is Biden would probably win. A lot of things would have to change before Biden would be at a disadvantage so, health permitting, why wouldn’t he run with the significant advantages he currently has in addition to his incumbency?

Don’t get me wrong. Those changes could happen but until they do Biden would be crazy not to run unless he has a serious health issue.
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Strong economic growth? We just had negative GDP growth in the 1st qtr, the stock market almost hit bear market territory and we have the highest inflation in 40 years. Those conditions are not usually correlated with strong growth.

The job market has been very good but that’s not going to continue at near the same pace. The Fed increasing rates as they are is going to slow the economy by design along with quantitative tightening we are going to see companies institute hiring freezes, reduce hours and then lay folks off. We’re already seeing it happening in the tech world.

And there is lots of talk about falling into recession. The Fed is of course trying to engineer a soft landing but that is easier said than done. Inflation is brutal and Powell has indicated he will do what he can to go after it. He’s no Paul Volker but he seems like he’s determined.

These are just economic realities.
 
ExpressLane said:
Actually they tried to prevent filming. Have you ever seen a video of Clinton entering or exiting Lynch's jet ? Was the meeting on anyone's schedule?
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Did Clinton deny he had the meeting? Because the twump team sure lied about their hundreds of contacts with Russian agents.

You poor, ignorantl Nazi.
 
Primavera said:
Continue to live in cloud cuckoo land, reality will give you a good arse kicking come November

Biden’s unpopularity is set to hit the Democrats in the crucial mid-term elections in November where the Republicans are set to win both Houses of Congress

The poll suggests a 50 percent to 41 percent vote in favour of the Republicans for the House of Representatives, giving them 264 seats to 171.

In the Senate race, the Republicans come out on top 48 percent to 42 percent giving them control of the upper House by 54 to 46.

This heightens the chances of impeachment proceedings starting against Biden over allegations surrounding the business activities of his son Hunter.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...p-voters-2020-elections-white-house-poll-news
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There can be no comparison to the unpopularity of today's GOP. You guys are going down in November.
 
Primavera said:
Continue to live in cloud cuckoo land, reality will give you a good arse kicking come November

Biden’s unpopularity is set to hit the Democrats in the crucial mid-term elections in November where the Republicans are set to win both Houses of Congress

The poll suggests a 50 percent to 41 percent vote in favour of the Republicans for the House of Representatives, giving them 264 seats to 171.

In the Senate race, the Republicans come out on top 48 percent to 42 percent giving them control of the upper House by 54 to 46.

This heightens the chances of impeachment proceedings starting against Biden over allegations surrounding the business activities of his son Hunter.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...p-voters-2020-elections-white-house-poll-news
Click to expand...

How am I living in a cloud? I agree that’s likely!
 
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