I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th

Into the Night said:
The United States isn't Japan, Wally; and Japan has not had deflation since they went to fiat currency.
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Japan had a 30 year period of deflation and zero inflation that they simply could not break out of. That went from the early 1990's to recently. It was well into their fiat currency period.

During the Great Recession, the USA had several months of deflation, and a few years of near zero inflation. Slipping below 2% a little is not the end of the world, but this was well below zero, and persistent.

Deflation is a terrible economy killer, so it has been very upsetting when we even get close to it.

Into the Night said:
Inflation is not a target, Wally.
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The Fed, and most economists have a target of 2% inflation.

Into the Night said:
Interest rates are not money.
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Interest rates are the price that has to be paid to get money on loan. The lower the interest rates are, the more money will be created through loans, and the faster that money will move.
 
Walt said:
"Smart money" sees where things are going. Even a lot of retail investors see where things are going. The limited number of retail investors betting that "Nothing Ever Happens!!!" gives me hope that they will run out of money by Sept 30th.


The EU is such a good idea that it seems to survive any level of silly mismanagement.

They are debating a budget that will be 7 years long, and will not come into effect for 2 years. They are trying to budget 9 years in advance. They need the approval of all 27 member states. That is crazy.

And yet they have a better chance of getting a budget on time than the USA. That is just weird.
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If you like Europe so much, Wally. Go move there.
 
Walt said:
What number would you go with?
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I said I wouldn't give any advice to dipshit, lol. Besides, what if I was wrong and it impacted his quality of life, I'd be crushed. I assume you actually know better, but I suppose it could be a sincere question.
 
EdwinA said:
Yes, prices on some staples are already falling. Good news is always bad for you sociopaths and deviants.
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They have fallen more since this post, though some are still higher than they were before; avocadoes are still 10 cents higher than before. But that is still considerably less than they tried to gouge consumers for; people just let them rot and just bought guacamole, which didn't go up in price, which was suspicious itself, given what guacamole is made of.
 
Walt said:
Interest rates are the price that has to be paid to get money on loan. The lower the interest rates are, the more money will be created through loans, and the faster that money will move.
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They're called 'Bubbles', Wally, and they always pop. Lowering interest rates is just govt. subsidy for big borrowers; few 'little people' borrow at Fed rates, dumbass.
 
EdwinA said:
They're called 'Bubbles'
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Increasing rates to keep the economy from overheating and creating inflation is the opposite of a bubble.

EdwinA said:
and they always pop.
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You would think, but I read a study that bubbles do not always pop. Apparently, sometimes there is a soft landing. I do not have a link to the study, and cannot even remember where I read it... But I still trust it more than you.
 
Walt said:
Increasing rates to keep the economy from overheating and creating inflation is the opposite of a bubble.


You would think, but I read a study that bubbles do not always pop. Apparently, sometimes there is a soft landing. I do not have a link to the study, and cannot even remember where I read it... But I still trust it more than you.
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We're told QE is an attempt at a soft landing but throwing money at the problem never works.
 
goat said:
We're told QE is an attempt at a soft landing but throwing money at the problem never works.
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QE2 is not about softening landings. It is about trying to escape a liquidity trap. It is about escaping a Great Depression level collapse by causing real damage.
 
Walt said:
QE2 is not about softening landings. It is about trying to escape a liquidity trap. It is about escaping a Great Depression level collapse by causing real damage.
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I've been following this since the S&L scam. A soft-landing means too big to fail/jail. We've been at Great Depression numbers since 2008. You're only starting to figure that out now.
 
goat said:
I've been following this since the S&L scam. A soft-landing means too big to fail/jail. We've been at Great Depression numbers since 2008. You're only starting to figure that out now.
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The idiots still claim they' defeated inflation', which of course is utter rubbish; they merely slowed down the rate of inflation. If they had really'defeated inflation', prices would be at 1910 levels. lol
 
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