Insider trading
A report that
Iran and the
US were inching closer to a peace deal sent oil prices plunging and stock indexes soaring, as some traders claimed that the false starts were starting to smell of market manipulation.
A report by Axios published on Wednesday claimed the two countries were closing in on “a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations”, amid the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Brent crude dropped from $108 per barrel to $97 after the report, before regaining some ground. The international benchmark was still down around seven percent at roughly $102 per barrel.
Just 70 minutes before the Axios report dropped, nearly $920m was wagered on crude oil short positions.
"When is everyone going to start realizing that the manic on again off again war/peace rhetoric is really just insider trading? And sprinkle in some murder,” Marjorie Taylor Greene
wrote on X.
Traders clashed over whether investors should buy into a rally sparked by the Axios report, which was later repeated by Reuters and Bloomberg.
“These fake timed peace deal reports by Axios with the selling and buying that accompanies them, followed by the president then doing the inverse and Iran saying it’s a lie has been happening for weeks now,” one user
wrote on X.
“I’ve never seen such in your face insider trading. Market is a casino,” they added.
One person shared a
meme on X with a mother and her children in a poverty-stricken kitchen backdrop:
“Mom, how did we get so poor?” the children ask.
“Your dad fought TACO and shorted into the daily Axios pump,” the mother replied, using an acronym to describe Trump’s pattern of reversing policy decisions that cause equity prices to go down. Taco was coined by a Financial Times columnist for “Trump Always Chicken’s Out”.
Axios reported previously that Iran and the US were inching closer to a nuclear deal just before the US and Israel attacked the Islamic Republic on 28 February. That story turned out to be false, as well.
Some noted that the reports of de-escalation appeared to coincide with rising 10-year bond yields.
Rising bond yields make US government borrowing more expensive and filter down into consumer loans, such as mortgages. Bond yields rise when prices fall.
Yields have spiked amid the war on Iran due to concerns that rising oil prices will drive inflation.