Yup, that is how things stand. Not sure I completely agree that the situation cannot change, but I agree that it will be a very steep hill to climb.
This next presidential election will tell us a lot about that question. I was having dinner with my sister in New York on Tuesday...and we started discussing this issue. I asked her about her favorites. She is a Democrat (I am an Independent) and she will vote in the primary. The one thing we finally agreed on was that there was no Republican front-runner with whom we could feel comfortable. Unfortunately, there were not many Democrats that we loved...and those that I find reasonable are almost sure to lose. Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg both seem to me to be competent, but both are almost sure to lose if nominated. (I doubt either will be.) Gonna be a trudge.