Here are the first vote returns in his race against Greg Laughlin who was a democrat that switched parties ...
Laughlin   14,721   42 percent 
Paul            11,080   32 percent 
Deats          8,453     24 percent 
Because the south has runoffs if a candidate doesn't get 50%, there was a runoff. In the runoff, Deats threw his support to Paul because of personal issues with Laughlin. It's a small district and it has changed since then. At that time 75% of the district was white, 26% hispanic,  and 12% black. Today, 40% of the district is hispanic, and 18% is black.
He beat his last opponent, Shane Sklar, a democrat, 60-40.
Only 7% of his campaign funds come from within the district, the other 93% from outside the district.
He most certainly can be beaten.