2016 Election electoral vote predictions

PostmodernProphet said:
why?......is it because you haven't seen the polls I linked in the previous post from RCP?......

I'm pretty sure if Clinton was up by 3 in all the polls, RCP wouldn't say the average of all the polls is 1.6......
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

or if you're still just talking Florida, 1.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html
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I generally throw out the LATimes and whoever has the highest number for Clinton in my averages, I also include more polls than real clear politics does.
 
Jarod said:
I generally throw out the LATimes and whoever has the highest number for Clinton in my averages, I also include more polls than real clear politics does.
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At this point you should be looking at state polls

Look at recent CBS polls for Florida and Ohio. Very bad news inside for Crooked Hillary.

In Florida among those who have voted, they are tied. But among those voting on Election Day, Trump is up 16.

Same scenario in Ohio, but Trump is up 8

Those are landslide numbers that if true would have reverberations on Tuesday. If Trump wins Ohio by more than 5 than Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are in play.
 
Jarod said:
I generally throw out the LATimes and whoever has the highest number for Clinton in my averages, I also include more polls than real clear politics does.
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???.....show me polls RCP doesn't include.......are you referring to your daily poll of your office staff?.....
 
Time to put up or shut up...

If you are not brave enough to put a state by state prediction on here, you have no right to call someone out if they made an incorrect prediction!

Come on, do it, I want to see if Trumpovites feel solid enough about how he is going to pull a 270 to publicly hash it out here with a state by state!
 
Jarod said:
Time to put up or shut up...

If you are not brave enough to put a state by state prediction on here, you have no right to call someone out if they made an incorrect prediction!

Come on, do it, I want to see if Trumpovites feel solid enough about how he is going to pull a 270 to publicly hash it out here with a state by state!
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See APP

Also why do you not apply the same standard to your fellow libs
 
Teflon Don said:
See APP

Also why do you not apply the same standard to your fellow libs
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Good question, I guess I think that the current Republicans on this board are less in touch with reality. One thing I enjoy about trials and elections is that it often whacks delusional people with a healthy dose of reality.
 
Jarod said:
Did you do a state by state in APP?
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its hard because 270towin requires a caphcha that will not let me thru :(

newhoo crooked is coming into florida election day with a 1.4% early voting lead. Obama had a 3% lead on robmoney last time.
 
Okay then just give me what you think about the tossups... If you leave a state out, we can assume you figured it would go the way it went for Obama.
 
Maybe this will make it easy, its a list of states that are generally separated by how strong of a chance Trump has... Put an "x" next to the ones you think Trump will get.


Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
Tennessee (11)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
Montana (3)
Indiana (11)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
South Carolina (9)
Texas (38)
Georgia (16)
Arizona (11)
Missouri (10)
Utah (6)
Ohio (18)
Iowa (6)
Minnesota (10)
Virginia (13)
Connecticut (7)
North Carolina (15)
Florida (29)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Pennsylvania (20)
Maine (4)
Michigan (16)
New Jersey (14)
Oregon (7)
Washington (12)
Wisconsin (10)
California (55)
Delaware (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
New York (29)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Colorado (9)
D.C.
 
Jarod said:
Do you have any polling to back up your Michigan and Pennsylvania predictions?
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nope. Im going by the fact that the clintons are spending a lot of time there and we are seeing a surge of voters who have not voted and voters who have voted once in last three elections.

Could be hispanics rising up to vote out trump or the monster vote trump is talking about.

I predict a realignment election like I have since the start.
 
oh also campaign stops. I would characterize these last two days as all offense for trump and defense for clinton.
 
tsuke said:
oh also campaign stops. I would characterize these last two days as all offense for trump and defense for clinton.
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But you're ignoring the strategy there.

All Clinton has to do is protect the blue wall. Trump is the one who needs the inside straight & then some. He HAS to pick off a blue state. Hillary doesn't need to pick off a red state.
 
Thing1 said:
But you're ignoring the strategy there.

All Clinton has to do is protect the blue wall. Trump is the one who needs the inside straight & then some. He HAS to pick off a blue state. Hillary doesn't need to pick off a red state.
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if clinton really thought she was winning she would be campaigning in georgia not just to get the w but to get more legitimacy in the eyes of the country.

btw i dont see any of you guys predictions ;/
 
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