Afghanistan could become a future terrorist haven when the U.S. withdraws unless a larger and more expensive Afghan security force is planned, a study has warned. The report sketched a scenario in which the Taliban would seek to capitalize on the absence of foreign combat forces and press its campaign to regain political power in Kabul. 'History suggests that the Taliban will use sanctuaries in Pakistan to regenerate their capabilities as military pressure on the movement declines,' the report said.
As a first step, in 2015-16, the Taliban may put additional pressure on Afghan security forces in rural areas, expand their control and influence in areas vacated this year by coalition forces, encircle key cities and conduct high-profile attacks in urban areas, the report said. By 2016-18, after recovering from the military pounding it has taken in recent years from U.S. and coalition forces, the Taliban may be in position to press a more aggressive and intense military campaign. The report also says the U.S. will need to keep pressure on what remains of al-Qaida inside of Afghanistan in order to prevent it from becoming a significant future threat. It said small numbers of al-Qaida members are still active in the remote valleys of northeastern Afghanistan — an assessment shared by U.S. intelligence agencies.
