Into the Night
Verified User
The same candidates running in the same format two and a half months later. There is little difference here.
There is no such thing as "false equivocation fallacy." You might be thinking of "equivocation fallacy", but their are not ambiguous terms being used. You might be thinking "false equivalence fallacy", but the two elections are very, very similar, and I am noting the one difference.
The one difference is two and a half months. That difference means that it will be a November election next time, and so should have a higher turnout. That means more moderate voters, and moderate voters hate Palin... So Palin will probably do a bit worse.
False equivalence fallacy. Not the same election, not the same format. Your insistence that the election has somehow already occurred, and that you can get away with making up numbers is truly bizarre.