Democrats Are Favored to Take Back the Senate

I don’t like counting chickens before they are hatched. There are still 99 days till the election, just think what’s happened in the last 99 days.
 
Hello floridafan,

floridafan said:
With just over 100 days until Election Day, the political climate appears dire for Republicans across the board. President Trump is the decided underdog against former Vice President Joe Biden in our Electoral College ratings and Democrats could end up expanding their House majority.

That leaves the Senate as Republicans' firewall—the final barrier to unified control for Democrats in 2021. While GOP incumbents are trying to run races independent of the president, if Trump’s polling numbers remain this dismal come November, that’s an unenviable and likely unsuccessful strategy, according to several top party strategists. As of now, Democrats are a slight favorite to win the Senate majority.

“Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November,” remarked one GOP pollster. “It’s grim. There’s just so many places where Democrats either have the upper hand or are competitive in states that six months ago we wouldn’t have considered at risk.”

“If you’re an incumbent in a bad environment sitting at 44 percent, you should be pretty damn scared,” another alarmed Republican strategist said. “The expanding map has made it really hard, and there’s just a lot of Democratic momentum right now."

We wrote four months ago that the worsening pandemic, along with Biden emerging as the Democratic nominee instead of Bernie Sanders, was the “perfect storm” Republicans feared. Now, with the death toll nearing 150,000, the environment has gotten even worse for the GOP, prodded along by Trump’s missteps. Racial injustice protests after the deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and Ahmaud Arbery in early June further galvanized the nation, leading to rapid cultural shifts against Confederate monuments and even the long pushed for change of the Mississippi state flag, which still bore the Confederate battle flag emblem.

Taken together, that’s not just a perfect storm for Democrats, but perhaps a perfect tsunami. “The bottom fell out for us at the end of May and June,” with worsening numbers continuing into July now, one national GOP strategist looking at polls across the map bemoaned.

Ultimately, every day that Trump stubbornly refuses to change course is another day that it becomes increasingly likely he may not only tank his own re-election bid but could be on a kamikaze mission to take the Republican-held Senate down with him. At this point, a net gain of five to seven seats for Democrats looks far more probable than the one to three seat gain that would leave them shy of a majority.
https://cookpolitical.com/index.php...ys-out-democrats-are-favored-take-back-senate
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The Cook Political Report is the definitive go-to for understanding how things stand.
 
Republican Senators, with the possible exception of Mitt Romney, will be unable in the future to win an election for dog catcher. They are moral cowards with no integrity. They are traitors to the Constitution. Period, end of story.

In 2018, Democratic Senate candidates received 11 million more votes than Republicans. This year, that will translate to the end of McConnell as Senate Majority leader. Hell, he may not even be in the Senate come January. Gee, what a shame.
 
Phantasmal said:
I don’t like counting chickens before they are hatched. There are still 99 days till the election, just think what’s happened in the last 99 days.
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In mid-July of 2016 Clinton had a 12% lead over Trump. I have no clue who will win but that illustrates a lot can change in 4 months.
 
CFM said:
We choose the winner by electoral votes. Get back to me when you have an understanding of how that system works and why it was put in place.
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FFS. I know how the system works and I knew you would reply this way. This is how the conversation always goes:

Trumper: "The polls predicted Hillary would win. The polls were wrong."

Me: "The polls weren't wrong. They predicted she would win the popular vote and she did."

Trumper: "The popular vote doesn't matter. Only the electoral college matters."

Me: "Ok, but that's not what we were talking about. We were talking about whether or not the polls are accurate."
 
Michael_Panetta said:
FFS. I know how the system works and I knew you would reply this way. This is how the conversation always goes:

Trumper: "The polls predicted Hillary would win. The polls were wrong."

Me: "The polls weren't wrong. They predicted she would win the popular vote and she did."

Trumper: "The popular vote doesn't matter. Only the electoral college matters."

Me: "Ok, but that's not what we were talking about. We were talking about whether or not the polls are accurate."
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you: I suck cock.
 
polls don't properly factor in the districts. votes need to be spread out in the districts. being overly represented in mismanaged ghetto cities is not a winning strategy.
 
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