Hit Bottom?

it wouldn't be the first time I got my butt whipped, somehow I think this nazi republican is more like the small guy driving the giant pickup truck.
 
I predicted a while back (and SuperFreak didn't know where i pulled the number from) that we would hit bottom at around 6500. Let me see if i can find that... because i sure hope i was right.
 
I am not an expert on economics, and I dont belive we will know it for another 3 -6 months, but when its all over, I belive they will say March of 09' was when the economy hit bottom and started its long slow recovery.

It's predicted that we won't reach the bottom until the end of 2010 and an "L" shaped recovery will begin.

It's going to get real ugly before this is over.

The Coming Economic Storm

We know that every optimistic prediction by every public and private figure of note these past two years has been wrong. The scary part is that every worst-case scenario envisioned so far has come to pass.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090323/howl?rel=hp_currently
 
I predicted a while back (and SuperFreak didn't know where i pulled the number from) that we would hit bottom at around 6500. Let me see if i can find that... because i sure hope i was right.

That is because it is between technical breakpoints at 7470 and 6280. Not saying that it cannot happen, just that it was an odd number given the technical impliplications of breaking 7470.
 
That is because it is between technical breakpoints at 7470 and 6280. Not saying that it cannot happen, just that it was an odd number given the technical impliplications of breaking 7470.

Yep, it was odd, but I wasn't basing it on technicals, since they are fucked right now anyways. I did better with my gut on that.
 
Yep, it was odd, but I wasn't basing it on technicals, since they are fucked right now anyways. I did better with my gut on that.

actually the technicals have been pretty accurate. They are not perfect by any means, but they have helped avoid the bulk of the downturn.
 
actually the technicals have been pretty accurate. They are not perfect by any means, but they have helped avoid the bulk of the downturn.

I don't know why you think that. the market has been based on emotion for about 6 months, with technicals causeing some of that emotion. If your technicals are right, we'll hit 5000 soon.
 
I don't know why you think that. the market has been based on emotion for about 6 months, with technicals causeing some of that emotion. If your technicals are right, we'll hit 5000 soon.

That is just it... technicals are driven not by fundamentals, but by direction or trends (which is often driven by emotion).

As for the 5000... yes, there is a small amount of support around 6300 and then modest support around 5200.
 
Was I right???

way too early to tell....

During the great Depression, there were two seperate instances where the market rebounded over 100% only to turn back around and give it all back and fall further.

Still major concerns....

1) Credit card debt... will defaults here send us back down the spiral?

2) Government spending.... will they pull it back once economy picks up? If not, get ready for some significant inflationary pressures.
 
I am not an expert on economics, and I dont belive we will know it for another 3 -6 months, but when its all over, I belive they will say March of 09' was when the economy hit bottom and started its long slow recovery.

I'm just checking your accuracy here, Yurt. Here is a thread from April of 2009 - well into Obama's admin - and Jarod is saying that March of 2009 is the bottom.

So I'm not sure how he could be trumpeting good economic #'s prior to that...
 
way too early to tell....

During the great Depression, there were two seperate instances where the market rebounded over 100% only to turn back around and give it all back and fall further.

Still major concerns....

1) Credit card debt... will defaults here send us back down the spiral?

2) Government spending.... will they pull it back once economy picks up? If not, get ready for some significant inflationary pressures.
Don't forget the resurgence in Foreclosures. We've got 7 notices for the HOA in just the past month. It's looking ugly for the home values in my area if that keeps up.
 
I'm just checking your accuracy here, Yurt. Here is a thread from April of 2009 - well into Obama's admin - and Jarod is saying that March of 2009 is the bottom.

So I'm not sure how he could be trumpeting good economic #'s prior to that...

Thanks!
 
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