I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th
- Thread starter Walt
- Start date
IBDaMann
Well-known member
I am not overly impressed with the current crop of self-proclaimed Libertarians. What was once the party of economics has become the party of "I suck at economics."it seems there are only palantire bitcoin libertarians around.
IBDaMann
Well-known member
Question for the board: Is it just me or did the S&P 500 close at a new record high ... again? It seems like this has become so commonplace that no one even bothers to mention it?
S&P 500, Tuesday, 12 August, closed at a record high of 6,445.76, gaining 1.1% on the day
US tariff revenue for just July 2025: $30 billion
US wages are up 0.6% since May 1st.
US GDP for 2025 (Jan 1 through Aug 12) is $660 billion higher than US GDP for the same period in 2024 ($330 billion in each of Q1 and Q2).
Would one of JPP's leftists refresh my memory as to how Donald Trump has "fucked up" the US economy?
S&P 500, Tuesday, 12 August, closed at a record high of 6,445.76, gaining 1.1% on the day
US tariff revenue for just July 2025: $30 billion
US wages are up 0.6% since May 1st.
US GDP for 2025 (Jan 1 through Aug 12) is $660 billion higher than US GDP for the same period in 2024 ($330 billion in each of Q1 and Q2).
Would one of JPP's leftists refresh my memory as to how Donald Trump has "fucked up" the US economy?
Trump and his billionaire friends are threatening tariffs to manipulate the markets. They make more money in a volatile market.
Phyllis Diller
Was it me?
guaranteeing zero tariffs forever is also a market manipulation.
so in the end you are a globalist armpit after-all.
go suck a Chinese dick then, fake libertarian patriot.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
Closing Tuesday (12 August 2025): 6,445.76 USD
Currently (as of this post): 6,453.91 USD
It's gonna take A LOT to bring this sucker "well under 5,000" by Sept 30th...
I'm LOVIN' IT!!!
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
Ahhhhhhh, so all of the good news is simply "a ruse" for "Trump and his rich friends" to make money via the markets?
TOO FUNNY! Maybe you'd have more money if you didn't pull it all out of the stock market back in Feb/Mar in fear of "Orange Man gonna crash the economy"...
IBDaMann
Well-known member
Trump, and no one else, is applying tariffs
to protect one particular market, i.e. the domestic one.
The amount of money brought in by tariffs is the same regardless of the price volatility of the products to which they are applied.
IBDaMann
Well-known member
I turned my head to look away only for a brief moment, and suddenly the S&P 500 closes out at a record high for the 3rd consecutive day. I know what you're thinking, i.e. "Ho - Hum, this is the new normal for the S&P 500". That's what I thought as well, but then I noticed that all three of the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all reached record highs today, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high.Closing Tuesday (12 August 2025): 6,445.76 USD
Currently (as of this post): 6,453.91 USD
Well, Democrats and leftists all insisted, nay demanded, red-faced no less, that we Trump supporters own it completely when it happens, and that they were completely disavowing having anything to do with what is transpiring, and that we conservatives were obviously going to try to hold Biden responsible ... so I'm owning up. I am publicly stating that I will not hold Biden responsible for any of America's economic successes as America rises to greatness. I will not point to any Democrat or leftist and say "this is because of you." Instead, I will say "this is in spite of you" and that Donald Trump gets full credit for kicking your asses at every turn, up and down the square.
Democrats and leftists, you've been owned, by Trump. You should probably start picking up your teeth from the floor from that King-Kong bitch-slap that smacked you down.
14 August 2025 Market Close:
S&P 500: 6,468.54
Nasdaq Composite: 21,710.67
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44,911.26
Estimated US Tariff Revenue for August 1 - 14: $4.5 Billion
IBDaMann
Well-known member
You felt the liftoff too, I presume? My clue was the clouds flying by.
Phyllis Diller
Was it me?
maybe someone hacked your system and turned your electric butt plug up to ten.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
The large part of your post that I removed was BRILLIANT reading, but I just wanted to question this final part of it. There's no way that there was only $4.5 Billion in tariff revenue for the first two weeks of August (especially when you noted a $6.12B tariff revenue for the prior week).Estimated US Tariff Revenue for August 1 - 14: $4.5 Billion
I suspect that you made a typo here and that you meant to type August 11 - 14 instead of August 1 - 14. Don't cut the USA's tariff revenue short, man!
IBDaMann
Well-known member
I don't have one anymore. I used to have one of those powered renewables, but I got rid of it once I learned that solar doesn't work where the sun don't shine, and farting was insufficiently intermittant to provide reliable wind generation.
IBDaMann
Well-known member
I promise, I won't ever lowball the republic for which We the People stand. My estimate was for the two weeks stated. Please remember that boatloads of products (mega-pun intended) were rushed in at the end of July that would have otherwiseThe large part of your post that I removed was BRILLIANT reading, but I just wanted to question this final part of it. There's no way that there was only $4.5 Billion in tariff revenue for the first two weeks of August (especially when you noted a $6.12B tariff revenue for the prior week).
I suspect that you made a typo here and that you meant to type August 11 - 14 instead of August 1 - 14. Don't cut the USA's tariff revenue short, man!
Think of it as establishing a minimum baseline ... and setting that baseline at $4.5 billion! ... but yes, it's accurate.
Phyllis Diller
Was it me?
yeah and the whales kept running into it.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
$6,465.94... maybe Walter's got a shot after all...
IBDaMann
Well-known member
I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th, and I put my money where my mouth is. I have bought a bunch of SPY puts centering around a strike price of $500, all expiring on September 30th. If the S&P goes down to around 4,000, I will make quite a bit of money.
If the S&P 500 stays above 5,000, then you can laugh at me
Well, it's September 9th, and all of the Big 3 (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones Industrials) reached their all-time highs today ... again ... obviously due to all the damage that Trump is doing to the economy.
September 9, 2025
S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 6,512.61
DJIA closed at an all-time high of 45,711.34
NASDAQ closed at an all-time high of 21,879.49
So, your prediction is that all will go to pot in three weeks, yes?
Also, Trump's tariffs have brought in over $196 billion in revenue vs $84 billion garnered over the same time frame by Biden's handlers in 2024.
Also, Trump's trade negotiations under Potential Tariff Adjustments for Aligned Partners reduced/eliminated foreign tariffs paid by American exporters, which listed goods eligible for favorable treatment upon reciprocal trade agreements. Items included aircraft parts, generic pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, and agricultural products not produced in sufficient U.S. quantities., e.g.
* The United Kingdom eliminated tariffs on U.S. medical devices, aircraft components, and certain agricultural exports. They also agreed to most-favored-nation treatment for U.S. pharmaceuticals.
* The European Union reduced tariffs on U.S. semiconductors, soybeans, and liquefied natural gas. They suspended retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum.
* Japan eliminated tariffs on U.S. beef and automotive software systems, and reduced duties on aerospace-grade aluminum.
* Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines signed a regional tariff alignment deal that removed tariffs on U.S. agricultural machinery and diagnostic equipment. They also committed to phased reductions on synthetic resin and silicone imports.
* China reached a temporary tariff truce in May 2025. They suspended retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans, pork, and liquefied natural gas
* many others too numerous to list individually
So, Walt's American Economic Apocolypse countdown begins. T-3 weeks. Doom & Gloom. Zombies and everything. Stock up on toilet paper.