Inverted Yield Curve

Earl said:
Yes, Jack.

Minor surgery-surgery on you.

Major surgery-surgery on me.
Click to expand...


I agree with your immigration position. I see that as a problem going forward. The US doesn't need MORE people. 'Automation' is reducing the need for Human Labor. So ... feeding MORE people that have NO JOB will be an economic strain. Strictly speaking as a Capitalist, you want Consumers that SPEND money to buy shit, ... not Consumers that are broke.
 
Poor Richard Saunders said:
I knew all about the inverted yield curve years ago. It will supposedly result in a recession anytime in the next 6-36 months. Gosh. Recessions happen about every 5-7 years. That means that any yield curve inversion has about an 80% chance of seeing a recession within that 36 months. Factor in what actually causes a yield curve inversion to only occur long after a recession and you get close to a 100% chance that a recession will occur within 36 months.

Markets fluctuate. Recessions happen. Trying to tie the two together is a fool's game. The markets are filled with professionals that are nothing more than fools that are selling their expertise. You should watch the yearly predictions from those professionals and then see how they did at the end of the year.
Click to expand...

They all seem to be making money. So they must know something.
 
Jack said:
They all seem to be making money. So they must know something.
Click to expand...

Everyone would make money if they followed the Oracle of Omaha's advice which was basically,
Put money in an index fund and leave it there.

There is no 20 year period in the history of the market that the market as a whole has lost money.
 
cawacko said:
The 2yr/10yr yield curve briefly inverted yesterday. Since 1955 the yield curve has inverted before every recession. Doesn't necessarily mean a recession is imminent, I read the medium lag is around 20 months. Nor does it mean a recession is guaranteed, there has a been a false positive previously and there are some people arguing "this time it's different." But for followers of the economy and the market the inverted yield curve is big news.
Click to expand...
Congress needs to be able to command our economy through policies public that provide automatic stabilization.

All laws of a general nature shall have uniform operation.
Click to expand...
 
danielpalos said:
Congress needs to be able to command our economy through policies public that provide automatic stabilization.
Click to expand...

So, you want at a minimum Statist Capitalism, or its more virulent cousin, Socialism running the economy? The problem is that these systems have actually proven inefficient and destabilizing, the exact opposite of what they claim to want.
 
Poor Richard Saunders said:
Everyone would make money if they followed the Oracle of Omaha's advice which was basically,
Put money in an index fund and leave it there.

There is no 20 year period in the history of the market that the market as a whole has lost money.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure if that is what he said but I can't disagree with that.

I think the OP has just opened up a fun discussion on 'what's next in the Market?'. When the Market is on an UP projectory, it doesn't matter what you do, you're going to make money. When things go South, you have to be more strategic. Bonds? Commodities? Cash? So, since none of of know, it's just a fun discussion of speculating about the Market.
 
Jack said:
I'm not sure if that is what he said but I can't disagree with that.

I think the OP has just opened up a fun discussion on 'what's next in the Market?'. When the Market is on an UP projectory, it doesn't matter what you do, you're going to make money. When things go South, you have to be more strategic. Bonds? Commodities? Cash? So, since none of of know, it's just a fun discussion of speculating about the Market.
Click to expand...

To me, the inverted yield curve is more about the economy than the market (will equities go up or down).
 
cawacko said:
The 2yr/10yr yield curve briefly inverted yesterday. Since 1955 the yield curve has inverted before every recession. Doesn't necessarily mean a recession is imminent, I read the medium lag is around 20 months. Nor does it mean a recession is guaranteed, there has a been a false positive previously and there are some people arguing "this time it's different." But for followers of the economy and the market the inverted yield curve is big news.
Click to expand...

What they cannot do is to continue whistling past the graveyard now that you are watching the grave diggers digging.

Recession is coming and the Fed's actions especially over the last 12 months or so guarantee it will be worse than usual.
 
T. A. Gardner said:
So, you want at a minimum Statist Capitalism, or its more virulent cousin, Socialism running the economy? The problem is that these systems have actually proven inefficient and destabilizing, the exact opposite of what they claim to want.
Click to expand...
Only because of unequal application of the laws. Otherwise, the capital dilemma has a relatively simple financial engineering solution.
 
PoliTalker said:
There is always a recession coming. It is only a matter of time.
Click to expand...

While this is true, the circumstances are unique this go round and that uniqueness makes this time decidedly different and not in a good way. When the Fed has to sell off the US debt its been gobbling up for years the US will no longer be able to pay its debt service and as inflation will already have made this happen, we will be in uncharted territory.

Since China is in the same boat thats why we need a global catastrophe to blame it al on (can you say Ukraine boys and girls ? I knew that you could).

Buckle up, its going to be a bumpy ride...
 
cawacko said:
To me, the inverted yield curve is more about the economy than the market (will equities go up or down).
Click to expand...

:) I thought the Market was a reflection of the Economy?

Anyway, if there is a 'recession' and people do less buying/consuming, then it would mean 'Earnings' of whatever you are invested in will go down, meaning it's share value will go down.
I'm an average 'retail investor' like most others here, but I'm a Believer in the adage about 'Never exit the Market'.
Low Cost Index Funds that are Well Diversified ... like someone else mentioned, are pretty safe investments in my mind.
At this point, the Stash of Cash you have for deployment, might be better held on the sidelines for a better/lower Entry Point. (?)

Personally, I can't believe we are still at 35,000 Dow. Some guy on TV said look to see if we break through S&P 4200. Then .... it's downhill to 2400. :shock:
 
Congress merely needs command and control through equal protection of our own laws to solve this simple financial engineering problem. It does not require rocket science and we have already been to the Moon and back.
 
cawacko said:
The 2yr/10yr yield curve briefly inverted yesterday. Since 1955 the yield curve has inverted before every recession. Doesn't necessarily mean a recession is imminent, I read the medium lag is around 20 months. Nor does it mean a recession is guaranteed, there has a been a false positive previously and there are some people arguing "this time it's different." But for followers of the economy and the market the inverted yield curve is big news.
Click to expand...

Interesting how for years now critics were all over the Fed for pumping money into the economy, and now that they are cutting back, some of the same circles are predicting dire consequences. Pretty obvious there will be a slow done, that is the point of pulling money out, but if it evolves into a full recession is yet to be seen

And as a side note, after admitting credibility on West Coast basketball, I lost my NCAA survivor pools and brackets banking on the return of PAC 12 basketball
 
We already know Government may need to use the social power to correct for Capitalism's boom and bust cycles.

All laws of a general nature shall have uniform operation.
 
cawacko said:
The 2yr/10yr yield curve briefly inverted yesterday. Since 1955 the yield curve has inverted before every recession. Doesn't necessarily mean a recession is imminent, I read the medium lag is around 20 months. Nor does it mean a recession is guaranteed, there has a been a false positive previously and there are some people arguing "this time it's different." But for followers of the economy and the market the inverted yield curve is big news.
Click to expand...

Nothing to argue about here from my limited knowledge of markets perspective!

I would just like to ad that when you mention "THE MARKET" there are a lot of markets- the Commodities Market- The Stock Market- The Bond Market- and others that are all uniquely different in who invests in those markets and the way they measure indicators and make predictions etc.

The Yield Curve is mainly dealing with the Bond Market and their longer term yield predictions and Indicators.
 
Last edited:
archives said:
Interesting how for years now critics were all over the Fed for pumping money into the economy, and now that they are cutting back, some of the same circles are predicting dire consequences. Pretty obvious there will be a slow done, that is the point of pulling money out, but if it evolves into a full recession is yet to be seen

And as a side note, after admitting credibility on West Coast basketball, I lost my NCAA survivor pools and brackets banking on the return of PAC 12 basketball
Click to expand...

I don't think that an inconsistent position at all. We've had massive monetary (and fiscal) stimulus for close to two years now. If there were no negative repercussions we would just do it forever right? I'm not sure who you follow or read when it comes to economic issues but I've not seen anyone predicting dire consequences. I have seen people say that depending on how the Fed handles this that it could lead to recession. I don't believe too many people would disagree with that.

I had Gonzaga beating Arizona in the Finals. Needless to say my bracket will not be among the winners.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top