The good news for me is that I'm not you brother.
It takes little to zero genius to read between the lines and recognize that neither Russia or China are going to agree to tough sanctions against Iran. Just like you were duped into believing "Mushroom clouds in 45 minutes" .. you've been duped again .. easily duped.
Can the US-Iran Talks Succeed?
... Robert Gates, the secretary of defense, did his part yesterday to lower the temperature of the rhetoric by stating explicitly that the US does not have a military option to deal with Iran's nuclear program. He didn't exactly take the military option "off the table," as the unfortunate phrase goes, but he did say:
"The reality is, there is no military option that does nothing more than buy time. The only way you end up not having a nuclear-capable Iran is for the Iranian government to decide that their security is diminished by having those weapons, as opposed to strengthened."
The reality is, of course, that it's highly unlikely that truly tough sanctions will get the support of the Russians and Chinese, and so the UN Security Council is likely to pass far more milder sanctions than the "crippling" ones, such as a cutoff of Iran's gasoline supply or a shutdown of Iran's access to international finance, that Hillary Clinton wants. The more likely result, if the talks don't go anywhere by the end of the year -- and it's almost impossible to imagine some breakthrough by then -- is that the UNSC might agree to far more mild, targeted sanctions that focus on Iran's nuclear program itself. But sanctions are the "sticks" in the US arsenal, and it's unclear what the "carrots" are -- or whether the US intends to offer the key "carrot," i.e., international acceptance of Iran's inherent right to enrich uranium.
Howard Berman, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee
and a close ally of AIPAC, has introduced legislation in support of Clinton's "crippling sanctions." Writing in the Washington Post, Berman warns that his bill targets both Iran's gasoline imports and its financial dealings
Tough, yes, but as Berman points out, the bill only provides Obama with a "mandate" to impose those draconian measures. It doesn't force him to do so. And so far, Berman, in spite of pressure from AIPAC, has refused to push his bill through Congress all year. And he isn't thrilled about the idea of doing anything that might disrupt the president's ongoing diplomatic effort. It's an enabling measure only, although its passage by Congress would hurt, not help, by inflaming passions on both sides and providing Iranian hawks with yet more leverage to sabotage the talks.
Speaking for the neoconservative alliance of hawks, Israeli hardliners, and outright kooks is Eliot Cohen, writing in the Wall Street Journal today. Cohen argues that neither diplomacy nor sanctions will dissuade Iran from pursuing the bomb:
"The U.S. government has hoped for a middle course of sanctions, negotiations and bargaining that would remove the problem without the ugly consequences. This is self-delusion."
And he adds:
"Pressure, be it gentle or severe, will not erase that nuclear program. The choices are now what they ever were: an American or an Israeli strike, which would probably cause a substantial war, or living in a world with Iranian nuclear weapons, which may also result in war, perhaps nuclear, over a longer period of time."
Like many neocons, Cohen seems to feel that the military option is unworkable. Israel, he says, isn't capable of dealing a knockout blow to the Iranian program, and an American strike would "probably lead to real warfare in the Persian Gulf, disrupting oil supplies and producing global responses." So Cohen falls back on the tired old regime-change strategy:
"It is, therefore, in the American interest to break with past policy and actively seek the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. Not by invasion, which this administration would not contemplate and could not execute, but through every instrument of U.S. power, soft more than hard."
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/dreyfuss/478079/can_the_us_iran_talks_succeed
So lets send in the CIA .. AGAIN .. to overthrow their government .. since it worked so well last time we did it.
wow
If you believe that Russia will go along with tough sanctions on Iran .. good luck with that.
I'll just settle for the good news.
