Just so everyone is clear on what a recession is

Socrtease said:
My concern is he is right. That productivity and GDP growth are no longer as strongly tied to income growth. And that the economists that use that for measure will get blindsided when the US economy takes a downturn. They will say "but productivity was high! GDP was high!" This guy makes some gloomy predictions but it seems that he and Charles McMillion are in the minority.
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well i dont think its all doom and gloom. in fact in 08 or 09 we may have massive bull market... when they start re-inflating dollar.
 
Chapdog said:
oh im definitely baffled by the market. i have 30% off the table right now. not touching till end of December at least. had a horrid November so far lost tons of money so i cut my losses for now.

but still we are not at risk for recession per current CBO forecasts. if said forecasts change then its a different story.
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You are going to trust the CBO? Over the market itself? To each their own. But that is a bad call in my opinion.
 
The fed says no
and so do the consensus of economist, no recession

the holiday season got off to a way better than expected start which should lower the 33% ish probabilities of a recession.
 
Topspin said:
The fed says no
and so do the consensus of economist, no recession

the holiday season got off to a way better than expected start which should lower the 33% ish probabilities of a recession.
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1) There is most certainly NOT a consensus either way by economists

2) The Fed is very much concerned over the odds of a recession.... why exactly do you think they are lowering rates and pumping billions into the market? Out of a "lack of concern"????

3) You should stick to calling people gerbers or trying to insult their level of education. You clearly do not have any understanding of economics.
 
well if we do have one it will be basically over before we even realize it. like i said i got money off table right now. ill buy in during recession.. then when we bull back ill have more then ever.

in terms of overall economic health.. all i know is that i can
1) refi my house at less then 6%
2) search monster or career builder and get like 1000plus jobs for my experience in my area.
3) continue to buy what i need (tho little tighter then normal with dollar loosing value) by just cutting out some of fat in my budget.

so if this is a recession its not very bad.
 
superfread do you read
the fed just came out with their estimate for next year 2% GDP.
and their most certainly is a consesus if you look for it.
Don't be so quick to name call yourself, I didn't say no concern I said they aren't predicting one. Now rethink how WRONG YOU WERE
 
HillaryGirl has been wrong all year on his little "predictions." It's amazing he can still debate this with a straight face.

I actually wasted time with him at the beginning of the year trying to argue his contention that housing is an isolated segment of the marketplace, and wouldn't have an affect on the overall economy. Big "oops" on that one for topsy....
 
Topspin said:
superfread do you read
the fed just came out with their estimate for next year 2% GDP.
and their most certainly is a consesus if you look for it.
Don't be so quick to name call yourself, I didn't say no concern I said they aren't predicting one. Now rethink how WRONG YOU WERE
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and the Fed is also saying that inflation is tame at under 3.5% (does anyone here actually believe that?).... they are trying not to spook the public. That is why professionals have to "read between the lines" when the Fed makes a statement. Notice they are slowly revising growth DOWNWARDS.... they are pumping billions into the market.... they are lowering rates. They are trying to curb this downturn in a controlled manner, which is what they should be doing.

"their most certainly is a consesus if you look for it"

Ignoring the errors in spelling.... that is still a very ignorant thing to say. If there was a consensus, you would not have to "look for it". It would be obvious. There would be very little (if any) dissent. There would be very few economic indicators pointing downwards.... yet....

1) The dollar is declining and should continue to do so
2) Grain, energy, building materials have all escalated in price
3) The mortgage problem is far from over as many of the mortgages issued in 2005-2006 will be re-setting rates next year.
4) The current account deficit is atrocious
5) The national debt is ever increasing
6) Other countries are lining up to oppose the dollar as the reserve currency
7) from a technical charting, the Dow has now followed the Transports and Wilshire into a technical breakdown.
 
LORI, are you retarded
the third quarter GDP was 4%, how was I wrong
No wonder you sell software and don't invest
superfreak, whatever
 
Topspin said:
LORI, are you retarded
the third quarter GDP was 4%, how was I wrong
No wonder you sell software and don't invest
superfreak, whatever
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Yeah, and in the same report you posted a few months back, the expecatations were for a downturn because of HOUSING. And that's pretty much what everyone is confirming today.

Do you want me to find & bump that embarassing thread of yours, where you were unable to make the connection that it didn't yet figure in the effects of the housing drop?

You wouldn't want that, would you tops?
 
Please do moron, I never said housing was zero impact.
I said no recession.
NOw quit while your just behind instead of way behind 4% is very good.
 
Topspin said:
LORI, are you retarded
the third quarter GDP was 4%, how was I wrong
No wonder you sell software and don't invest
superfreak, whatever
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I didn't see him buying anything this weekend either.

I am starting to think he's not even an American.
 
Considering how big Freddie and Fannie are and their credit/cash crisis and a housing slump that hasn't even found the bottom yet a chance for a recession is a fairly high in my opinion. I work at a bank that deals in short term notes for construction and land development and things have been on decline for nearly 2 years but the worst is the next 18 months as forclosures and builder inventory need to be discounted and liquidated and we can't stabalize until then.
 
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Chapdog said:
A Recession is a decline in GDP for two or more successive quarters of a year.

Just so you know the forecast shows we are currently not at risk for a recession
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so, by that definition, there was no 'recession' in 2001; only a slowdown.
 
its like false advertising.. cnnmoney last night had top headline with words recession in it. How can news outlets be talking about recessions when we have not had a negative quarter yet. Q4 will not be negative.. and by all current forecasts there is not negativity for 08.

believe the hype if you want to. im sticking to fundamentals of economics. when we have a negative gdp quarter then i will admit risk of recession.
 
Chapdog said:
its like false advertising.. cnnmoney last night had top headline with words recession in it. How can news outlets be talking about recessions when we have not had a negative quarter yet. Q4 will not be negative.. and by all current forecasts there is not negativity for 08.

believe the hype if you want to. im sticking to fundamentals of economics. when we have a negative gdp quarter then i will admit risk of recession.
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It helps the other party if people feel a "recession".
 
well its a load of crap. i see the stock market is correcting and there is some pretty dismal forecasts for housing and a few other sectors.. but overall GDP is hanging in their. perhaps not robust 4% anymore but 1-2%.. this is not a recession at this point.
 
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