Libya News and Interests

A Minister, a General, & the Militias: Libya’s Shifting Balance of Power
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Members of the Tripoli Protection Force, an alliance of militias, inspecting a compound used by the rival Seventh Brigade group in an area south of the Libyan capital, January 18, 2019
https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2019/...al-militias-libyas-shifting-balance-of-power/
*long article -very good bakground*
 
US pledges half a million dollars in non-lethal assistance to Libya
https://www.libyaobserver.ly/news/us-pledges-half-million-dollars-non-lethal-assistance-libya
The US embassy said this new assistance complements the United States’ $30 million USD in ongoing security assistance in support of "Government of National Accord" priorities, including projects to provide training to the Tripoli Security Directorate, help implement international standards at key airports, improve Libya’s border security management capability, clear unexploded ordinance in Sirte, bolster security sector reform, and build coordination between relevant actors ahead of elections.
 
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Tunisia- #ISIS release first ever photo set from #Tunisia, showing the daily life in the Western mountains, showing a handful of fighters, here on patrol (in a surprisingly open area). Note Steyr AUG acquired from security forces (some even reached as far as Sinai)
 
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Oded Berkowitz
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#Tripoli: a pair of V-22 Osprey carrying @USAfricaCommand CO Gen Waldhauser & US ambassador to Libya @AmbPeterBodde landing at Abu Sitta Naval Base to meet with #GNA PM al-Sarraj
 
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The conundrum Libya poses for policymakers is that the root of its wave of migration does not come from a single source. Like a flood of tributaries streaming to the mouth of a river, migrants are fleeing en masse from at least a dozen different countries.

Shutting off the flow would mean addressing the needs of migrants spanning half of an entire continent.
 
Gaddafi once proudly served as protector to his country's maritime border, promising that, for a sizable compensation from Europe, makeshift loads of human cargo would not suddenly arrive in search of refuge on Italian shores.
he European Union in 2008 cut a deal with the dictator, agreeing to pay $500 million in exchange for keeping migrants away. Italy later redoubled that deal. Gaddafi received an additional $5 billion over 20 years, a financial package intended to right the wrongs of colonialism, on the condition that he kept a tight grip on the border.

Suddenly, it wasn't just migrants arriving in Italy by the thousands. A disturbing number of corpses were washing up on shore.

Those deals dissolved along with Gaddafi's iron-clad rule over Libya. Clinging to the European money that helped finance his dictatorship, Gaddafi in 2010 did little to hide the racial subtext in his threats to Western leaders: Without him, their countries would be flooded with unwanted foreigners.

"Europe runs the risk of turning black from illegal immigration," Gaddafi warned. "It could turn into Africa."
Click to expand...
http://www.msnbc.com/specials/migrant-crisis/libya
^ detailed report
 
While You Weren’t Looking, General Haftar Has Been Taking Over Libya
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/0...as-been-taking-over-libya-oil-united-nations/
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Forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar patrol in the southern Libyan city of Sabha, on February 9.

In 2019, the spread of Haftar’s self-declared Libyan National Army (LNA) through southern Libya has been surprisingly rapid. Under a media campaign promoting the operation as an effort to expel foreign forces and terrorists from southern Libya, the LNA (which uses foreign militias) moved quickly in February to secure Libya’s el-Sharara and el-Feel oil fields, which together produce close to 400,000 barrels per day. Just as he did when he won control of eastern Libya’s oil facilities in September 2016, Haftar subsumed strategically placed local forces (including those guarding the oil fields) into the LNA with the promise of a uniform and a salary.

Perhaps most revealing was the accompanying distribution of a parallel Libyan currency (which Russia has supplied in order to keep Haftar and eastern Libya’s parallel government liquid over the last few years) along with flour, gas, and petroleum to the long-neglected local population. Haftar’s seizure of the oil fields advertises to Libya’s general populace that he can supply what Tripoli’s feckless Government of National Accord cannot.

This recent move south was bold and significant. But this operation—slick as it was—will not be sufficient to break the status quo. Haftar has held the majority of Libya’s oil production since 2016, not to mention his de facto control of Libya’s elected legislature and its self-appointed government, which has been administering the east in opposition to the Government of National Accord in Tripoli (which was itself created by the Libyan Political Agreement).

But Haftar has failed to translate his factual control on the ground into real political currency—namely, a leadership position in the internationally recognized government. His attempt to independently sell oil in June 2018, which could have been a game changer, was met with concerted international resistance that ultimately forced him to back down. Since that blunt power grab was stifled, Haftar and his backers have made a subtler attempt at generating influence where it matters, amongst Tripoli’s de facto power holders and the international community driving Libya’s political process.

This year’s diplomatic efforts have focused on manufacturing a deal between Haftar and the Government of National Accord’s Sarraj—essentially sidelining Libya’s two legislative houses in a track aimed at formalizing Haftar’s national role. It was only once these negotiations stalled that Haftar and the LNA made good on a long-standing threat to launch the southern operation, which was toasted in the United Arab Emirates, one of Haftar’s main supporters. This was quickly followed by a fresh round of diplomacy. First the chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corporation was convinced to lift force majeure on the captured southern oil fields, essentially ceding control to Haftar in a recognition of his invasion as an “extraordinary event,” thus legitimizing Haftar’s presence there and cementing his control over Libya’s oil. In late February, Sarraj and Haftar were brought together by the United Arab Emirates and the United Nations special envoy to Libya for fresh negotiations aimed at finalizing a political deal—now with Haftar bringing even more weight to the table. But Haftar still left Abu Dhabi without anything solid, suggesting that Sarraj did what he does best, stalling negotiations in an attempt to buy time. He is, however, negotiating with an increasingly weak hand.

Haftar now realistically has two ways of exchanging his recent gains for an official seat at the table: an official deal or a military imposition of the new de facto reality.

The former is the easier, and likely preferred, option. Despite the LNA’s bluster, a full-on invasion of western Libya would be arduous and uncertain to result in any kind of victory, let alone a quick one. The move south has left Haftar stretched and made him responsible for keeping the peace in a tribal, conflict-ridden, and deprived part of the country, which is already witnessing a resurgence of criminality. He has also isolated the region’s sizable Tebu population, who feel persecuted by the new order, and he’ll inevitably have to keep spending to maintain the loyalty of other tribes and groups which he has bought over to his side.

Instead, Haftar is likely to keep negotiations open with Sarraj. A few mechanisms that could inject the LNA into the Libyan Political Agreement structure without requiring legislative approval are at the center of current negotiations. The cabinet could be reshuffled, providing Haftar the necessary political influence to be declared supreme commander of the Libyan army. Or Abdullah al-Thinni, currently prime minister of Haftar’s eastern government, would be made prime minister of a unified government while Sarraj retains an increasingly ceremonial presidential role and Haftar once again becomes supreme commander. With international pressure building to force a deal, it seems Sarraj is the likely loser in any scenario.

It appears that Haftar-supporting states have managed to convince others that Haftar should be welcomed as the sole actor capable of breaking the political deadlock. This shift has become clear from the widespread push for a Sarraj-Haftar deal, which has also gotten backing from the United States. While his weightiest backers in France and the United Arab Emirates have long argued that Haftar is the strongman to stabilize Libya’s post-revolutionary chaos, others, like Italy, were previously wary of Haftar’s volatility and of legitimizing a power grab
 
Libyan militias capture Hifter's forces marching on Tripoli
Militias in western Libya fought forces under rival army commander Khalifa Hifter on Friday, capturing 100 of his soldiers and waging an airstrike on one of his positions a day after he declared an offensive to seize Tripoli, the capital of the oil-rich nation.

The violence came as the U.N. chief wrapped up his visit Friday aimed at avoiding an expanded conflict and said he left with a "heavy heart and deep concern."

The escalation comes after forces commanded by Hifter, who runs the self-styled Libya National Army based in the country's east, pushed westward. He brought his troops closer to Tripoli, which is controlled by the U.N.-backed Presidential Council and Government of National Accord and supporting militias.

A well-informed U.N. diplomat said late Friday that Hifter's forces were reported to be on the outskirts of Tripoli. So were militias from the western city of Misrata who now control everything from the eastern edges of the capital to Libya's western border, the diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

A showdown between Hifter's army and the militias could plunge Libya into another spasm of violence, possibly the worst since the 2011 civil war that toppled and later killed longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi.

It would also put at risk upcoming peace talks between rivals brokered by the U.N. and aimed at drawing a roadmap for new elections. Those talks are scheduled for April 14-16.

The U.N. Security Council held an emergency closed-door meeting Friday at Britain's request and called on Hifter's forces to halt all military movements. It also urged all Libya forces "to de-escalate and halt military activity."

After a briefing by the U.N. envoy for Libya, Ghassan Salame, the council said there can be no military solution to the conflict. Council members "called on all parties to resume dialogue and deliver on their commitments to engage constructively with the U.N. political process."

Hifter's troops on Thursday captured the town of Gharyan, some 50 kilometers (31 miles) south of Tripoli without a fight, putting them closer to the militias than ever before.

Hifter then ordered his forces to march on the capital, saying in an audio recording posted online: "We are coming Tripoli, we are coming." He also urged his forces to enter the city peacefully and only raise their weapons "in the face of those who seek injustice and prefer confrontation and fighting."

The march appeared to have faced a set-back on Friday, however.

Militias from the western cities of Zawiya and Misrata, which control Tripoli, said they had mobilized to confront Hifter.

"We are the revolutionaries and the elders ... we declare we are in full mobilization and war," they said in a video statement posted online.

A group of allied militias called the Joint Tripoli Protection Force based in the area around the Libyan capital announced they would also deploy to repel Hifter's offensive.

Over 100 of Hifter's soldiers were captured by Zawiya militias, said army spokesman Ahmed al-Mesmari. He said the soldiers' commander was being investigated.

Anti-Hifter activists on social media posted pictures of what they described as militiamen from Zawiya capturing dozens of Hifter's forces and armored vehicles carrying stickers reading "106th Battalion." The unit is known to be commanded by Hifter's son, Khaled. It's one of the largest units Hifter has deployed to march on Tripoli.

Also, Misrata militias launched an airstrike targeting Hifter's position at the foot of the mountains of Nafusa, he said. He didn't elaborate on the number of casualties.

In Tripoli, council member Mohammed al-Ammari spoke from the city center saying that Libya will not become a "hostage in hands of a military dictator once again."

There were conflicting reports during the day as to how much and where exactly Hifter's fighters were advancing in areas such as Souk al-Khamis.

Clashes erupted at night in the western district of Qasr Bani Ghashir, close to Tripoli International airport, which was destroyed in 2014 fighting. Former lawmaker Abdel-Raouf al-Manaei said the forces fighting under the umbrella of the Government of National Accord will not permit "a replica of el-Sissi military rule in Libya," in reference to the authoritarian Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, who is an army chief turned president.
 
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Rebel army on the doorstep of Tripoli: Libya is on brink of civil war as anti-government troops surround capital and 'gun battles' break out in suburbs. Hifter ordered his forces to march on the capital, saying in an audio recording posted online: 'We are coming Tripoli, we are coming.' He also urged his forces to enter the city peacefully and only raise their weapons 'in the face of those who seek injustice and prefer confrontation and fighting.'

Russia has spoken of their deep concern with the escalation after denying support for the Libyan general when questions were raised over Moscow's intentions in north Africa on Friday. The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he hoped the crisis would not lead to 'renewed bloodshed', adding that Moscow did not support Hiftar. Asked if Russia considered supporting Libya militarily, Peskov said: 'No, Moscow is not taking part in this in any way.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...s-surround-capital-gun-battles-break-out.html
 
How far can Haftar get with his Tripoli offensive?
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Libyan General Khalifa Haftar announced an offensive on Tripoli against the UN-backed Government of National Accord on April 4, 2019 [

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/haftar-tripoli-offensive-190407155352767.html
On April 4, Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar announced in a voice recording circulated online that he was launching a military campaign to take over the capital, Tripoli. His media office then released a video purporting to show tens of armoured vehicles bearing the emblems of Haftar's "Libyan National Army" (LNA) heading towards the Libyan capital. Tripoli would fall in 48 hours, his forces declared.

The Tripoli-based and UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) seemed taken by surprise. It scrambled to mobilise various militias backing it to defend the capital and eventually launched airs attacks against Haftar's forces.

Despite the severity of the situation and the risk of another bloody escalation in the years-long Libyan conflict, the response of the international community was rather weak. The United Kingdom called an emergency Security Council meeting on Friday night, which resulted in a statement calling on Haftar to "halt all military advances", after Russia and France insisted on minimal pressure on the LNA. Meanwhile, the US pulled out some of its troops stationed in Libya.

As the GNA announced a "counteroffensive" on Sunday, the situation in the country remains tense. With conflicting reports coming from both sides, and what appears to be a massive battle of misinformation raging on, it is very difficult to judge what is really going on on the ground.

At this point, what is clear is that Haftar has received enough international backing to press on with his operation and its outcome will be determined by what happens in the coming weeks.
Why did Hafter attack now?

An LNA operation to take over Tripoli was always just a question of time. After securing full control over Benghazi in eastern Libya in 2017, over the past year, Haftar has steadily pressed on to expand the territories under his control, while also engaging in talks with the GNA sponsored by various foreign actors.

In January, his forces launched an operation to take over major oilfields in the south and by the end of the month were able to enter Sabha, the largest city in southern Libya. Having established control, at least nominally, over two-thirds of Libya, Haftar turned his gaze on Tripolitania (western Libya) and the capital Tripoli.

With a UN-led national conference scheduled for mid-April, Haftar hastened to maximise his territorial gains and hence his leverage over his opponents at the GNA. At the same time, the ongoing civil unrest in Algeria gave him a rare window of opportunity to launch a military operation.

Worried about the Libyan conflict spilling over into its territory, the Algerian leadership has been pressing for a political solution in Libya and has hosted several meetings between Libyan actors. For Algiers, the GNA and the Islamist forces in Libya have to be included in any conflict settlement to ensure the stability of the country. It has perceived Haftar's zero-sum games as dangerous and potentially destabilising. Moreover, in its status of North Africa’s hegemon, Algiers sees his Arab allies - Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia - as geopolitical foes.

Given Algeria's political and military clout in the region, Haftar had avoided moving close to Algerian borders and kept open communication channels with the Algerian leadership until a few months ago. The purge that Algeria's security and military apparatus went through in mid-2018 and the uprising which erupted in February 2019 against President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's rule gave Haftar a unique opportunity to launch his expansionist military campaign, without much backlash from Algiers.

Haftar probably also received the green light from his foreign backers. It is no secret that Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and increasingly Russia and France, have been providing the LNA with military and political support.

In late March, Haftar travelled to Riyadh to meet Saudi King Salman, which roughly coincided with a visit Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed paid to Egypt, where he met Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. It is quite unlikely that Haftar's closest allies were not informed about the planned operation.

The timid response by the international community to his offensive on Tripoli - which was launched as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was visiting the Libyan capital - shows that many countries consider Haftar as the solution for Libya, not just the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Haftar is also hoping to capitalise on the increasing discontent among the civilian population in western Libya. The situation inside Tripoli - as in other Libyan cities - has been steadily deteriorating. Crime, insecurity and corruption have been on the rise, while living conditions have markedly worsened as the local economy has struggled and the provision of social and health services has nearly collapsed.

The capital is divided between different militias, and the GNA is itself weak and corrupt. As nostalgia for the Gaddafi era has crept in, Haftar has tried to project himself as a military strongman who could unite the country and bring back stability and order. This self-styled image as Libya's saviour has been promoted by a massive propaganda machine largely backed by the UAE.
What happens next?

The situation on the ground is changing rapidly and is rather unpredictable, but at this point, there are at least three possible scenarios for what happens next in Libya.

First, the Tripoli offensive can become a protracted conflict similar to the one that Benghazi witnessed, which lasted three years. This would take a heavy toll on the civilian population and infrastructure, and would spoil Haftar's hopes to enter the capital as a popular and much-awaited saviour.

Second, a quick victory is also not out of the question and it would very much depend on whether Haftar is able to win over enough militias that would join his forces and help him take control of Tripoli without a fierce fight. He has been conducting negotiations with a number of militia leaders already - a strategy that had helped him make quick territorial gains in his campaign in southern Libya.

Striking a deal with armed groups, however, would mean that he will have to guarantee their military and economic interests. This means that the lawlessness which is currently plaguing Libya's west would persist. And if Haftar decides to crack down on militias in the future - as he has promised - he might face a widespread rebellion.

Third, a retreat or a consolidation of the new status quo could also take place, where the LNA forces cut their offensive short but retain strategic positions in order to keep the pressure on Tripoli. This may be followed by another round of negotiations, with or without the UN, in which Haftar would have the upper hand.

Whatever scenario unrolls in the following weeks, one thing is for sure: Libya will continue to be an epicentre of the crisis in North Africa and a major source of concern beyond its borders.
 
Tripoli's only functional airport hit by air raid as clashes rage
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019...it-air-raid-clashes-rage-190408133455465.html
Services temporarily suspended at Mitiga airport as battles between forces loyal to Haftar
and UN-backed gov't continue.

Haftar, a 75-year-old general who once served under Qaddafi, returned to Libya in 2011 to aid in the revolution against the dictator.

After Qaddafi was deposed, Haftar eventually became the leader of militia forces controlling the country’s eastern region. He’s a staunch anti-Islamist general backed by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Haftar has also received aid from Russia and from France, which partnered with the general in hopes he could help slow African immigration.
Despite this support, there are lingering worries that Haftar could turn out to be little more than a Gaddafi 2.0.

The Washington Post’s Fahmi Hussein and Sudarsan Raghavan filed a dispatch from the city of Misurata on Saturday, where militia forces who say Haftar reminds them of Qaddafi claimed to have deployed hundreds of truckloads of fighters to help in the fight against Haftar.
 
Biden on the 2012 Obama-backed overthrow in Libya: "NATO got it right. Gaddafi was a brutal dictator who had to go." October 21, 2011, at a Plymouth, New Hampshire Town Hall forum

The New York Times quoted Foreign Policy writer Thomas Ricks. “When was the last time Biden was right about anything?”
 
Thousands of residents have fled homes in Tripoli as fighters battle on outskirts of the city.

he Libyan National Army (LNA) forces of eastern commander Khalifa Haftar had taken up positions in the suburbs about 11 km (7 miles) south of the centre, with steel containers and pickups with mounted machine-guns blocking their way into the city.

Residents reported LNA planes buzzing Tripoli and the sound of clashes in outskirts of the city.

In central Tripoli, there were no signs of military and security vehicles or personnel on the streets. But shops and cafes have been closing earlier than usual in the evening and residents were apprehensive about the prospect of violence.

"War is war: I am not afraid of the Libyan National Army, but I am afraid of the destruction that will never be reconstructed," said Mohamed Salem al-Sharwe, a taxi driver in Tripoli.

The United Nations said that at least 4,500 Tripoli residents had been displaced with most moving away from conflict areas to safer districts of the city.
 
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019...es-advance-libya-capital-190410105539506.html

Many others remain trapped in their homes, UNOCHA added, with more than 500,000 children deemed to be at "immediate threat".

At least 47 people, including nine civilians, have so far been killed, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday.

As fighting continued on Wednesday, Haftar's self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) took up positions some 11km south of the centre of the capital, which is protected by an array of militias and other groups loyal to the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). Battle-hardened forces from the city of Misrata have also arrived in Tripoli to help in the fighting against the LNA.

Al Jazeera's Mahmoud Abdelwahed, reporting from Tripoli, said the situation in the southern suburbs of the capital remained very tense, with the warring sides vying to take control of the city's disused international airport.

"The situation in and around Tripoli's international airport is very tense after Haftar's forces managed to recapture the airport last night," Abdelwahed said on Wednesday.

The facility on Tripoli southern's edge has been abandoned since 2014 after being damaged during heavy clashes between rival armed groups. Meanwhile, the runway of the capital's only working airport - Mitiga, on the eastern outskirts of Tripoli - was targeted by Haftar's fighter jets on Monday.
 
Haftar, Libya’s strongest warlord, makes a push for Tripoli
But he faces stiff opposition and risks losing the territory he already holds
https://www.economist.com/middle-ea...as-strongest-warlord-makes-a-push-for-tripoli

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At times his self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) has reached within 10km or so of Tripoli’s centre. Dozens have been killed. Flights were suspended after General Haftar’s jets bombed the city’s only functioning airport. The conference has been cancelled. “The UN is deeply engaged in negotiations for peace,” Mr Guterres said later. “We’re not always successful, I must confess.”

The general had long threatened to take Tripoli. Until now he was posturing. No one is quite sure why he chose this moment to move on the capital.

Whatever his reasons, his offensive is starting to look like a big miscalculation. He would have entered the conference in an enviable position, holding most of Libya’s land and oil wells. Instead the LNA is now bogged down on several fronts. The general risks losing not only the battle for Tripoli but many of his other gains as well.
 
CosmicRocker said:
The warlord hailed by the west and Arab autocrats as a potential unifier of Libya has just declared war on the country’s UN-backed interim leader, issuing a warrant for his arrest on “terrorism” charges as well as hammering the country’s capital with airstrikes.

For years, Khalifa Haftar – a self-declared field marshal leading an army of young fighters – had the blessing of France, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia as he fought against Islamist militias in the country’s east.

But he stunned many of his backers earlier this month when he launched a surprise assault on Tripoli, vowing to seize control of the city, and upending plans for peace talks.

Late on Thursday, the Libyan National Army’s military prosecutor issued an arrest warrant for Fayez Serraj, the mild-mannered Libyan prime minister endorsed by the international community as leader of the country’s transitional authority.

Mr Haftar’s spokesperson Ahmed al-Mismari accused Mr Serraj and 22 others of “committing crimes or supporting terrorism in Libya”.

The names included Libya military leaders in the western zone and other officials of the Government of National Accord, a loose Tripoli-based alliance of political parties and militias that has been endorsed by the UN security council as the path for stitching Libya back together after the long-time regime of Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in a 2011 Nato-backed war.

Mr Serraj on Thursday accused Mr Haftar, who has bombed the capital’s sole functioning civilian airport, of war crimes and vowed to refer his alleged abuses to the International Criminal Court.

Mr Haftar’s Tripoli offensive has already displaced nearly 10,000 people and caused dozens of injuries and deaths, including of civilians. It has drawn rival western Libyan militias together to fend off Mr Haftar’s advances.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...serraj-arrest-warrant-terror-un-a8867371.html
“The coalition against him is huge, and the weapons against him are massive,” said Abdulkader Assad, a columnist for The Libya Observer, a pro-Tripoli news platform.

Many worry the fighting will create an opening for the country’s branch of Isis, which had been quelled after a three-year US-backed effort. On Thursday, Isis claimed it had killed six of Mr Haftar’s men in Libya’s south.
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