Morgan Stanley is issuing a recession alert

Topspin said:
supermoron and your GED sidekick
you freaking losers now want to change the subject to what's best overall.
I shoved your collective heads and half brain up your butts on the recession.
Inflation comes from too much demand, and is almost opposite of what causes a recession
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Really toppy? You don't think high inflation leads to a recession? Really?

So again, you fail to answer my question.... because you either don't understand or you have come to realize that I am right.

I'll let you in on a little secret toppy... the only way high inflation on energy and food won't lead to a recession is if wages increase at the same pace. Because otherwise discretionary spending drys up and the rest of the sectors get hammered. People will not be buying Iphones if they have to spend the money on their energy bills.

This is not even factoring in the effects of higher healthcare costs and the credit crunch we are in.
 
Give him another hour or so.... he will be back on to post once again that retail sales were up in the past thus dictating that no recession is possible.... or something idiotic like that.
 
supercold caller, their will be other threads on business.
Your recession calls have you pulling your head out your ass.
If you can't agree that much better than estimated consumer spending is less recessionary, then I'm done with this thread.
 
Topspin said:
supercold caller, their will be other threads on business.
Your recession calls have you pulling your head out your ass.
If you can't agree that much better than estimated consumer spending is less recessionary, then I'm done with this thread.
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:king:

Declare victory and move on from the inconvenient truth.
 
Topspin said:
supercold caller, their will be other threads on business.
Your recession calls have you pulling your head out your ass.
If you can't agree that much better than estimated consumer spending is less recessionary, then I'm done with this thread.
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Such a nice cop out. Again relying on PAST data to justify your position on the future. I take it this means that you are not going to respond to ANY of the inflationary concerns that I mentioned. Apparently your MBA stands for Much Bullshitting A-hole.

Because you are incapable of discussing economics. Never again should you give anyone a hard time for their economic background. Because you are just as bad as Desh.
 
supercold caller I know you will not embarrass the shit college you went to by listing its name. The thieve who gave you/sold you and economics degree that lead you to being a salesman. You can't understand that CURRENT sales, listed after your moronic post are way up means less chance of recession. No wonder you cold call.
Even Mr GED knows that all sales added up equals GDP.
Now go cold call some old lady and steal some more money.
 
Topspin said:
supercold caller I know you will not embarrass the shit college you went to by listing its name. The thieve who gave you/sold you and economics degree that lead you to being a salesman. You can't understand that CURRENT sales, listed after your moronic post are way up means less chance of recession. No wonder you cold call.
Even Mr GED knows that all sales added up equals GDP.
Now go cold call some old lady and steal some more money.
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I went to Marquette. Something I have freely stated in the past.

I will let you in on a little secret. Every time they release sales numbers... they represent the PAST. While the number is current in the sense it was just released, the data was accumulated from the PAST. It is NOT an indicator of what the future will hold.

Consumer spending habits can change rapidly. They are driven by the very topics you refuse to acknowledge.... higher energy prices, higher food prices, lower purchasing power, credit crunch, rising healthcare costs.... all of these lead to lower discretionary spending by consumers. But please, continue telling us how the past sales numbers will affect 2008.
 
now wonder Marquette
Right fool, the sales numbers that are high came out after your boo hooing the economy. And your arguing they don't mean less chance of recession is below econ 101.
All numbers released are backward looking you moron.
 
Topspin said:
now wonder Marquette
Right fool, the sales numbers that are high came out after your boo hooing the economy. And your arguing they don't mean less chance of recession is below econ 101.
All numbers released are backward looking you moron.
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Yes, that is why I pointed it out to you toppy. THAT is why you have to PROJECT the future. You do that by looking at the factors that will effect the market going forward. Which I have done. Which you have refused to acknowledge or discuss.

Yes, the sales numbers came out after I stated that I think a recession is likely for 2008. But please tell me where I stated that things would all be bad immediately. Or that every single release would be bad.
 
future projections are changed when new data comes in. When sales are way higher GDP projections go up. Your painting yourself into a corner inbetween stealing with your life insurance sales.
 
Topspin said:
future projections are changed when new data comes in. When sales are way higher GDP projections go up. Your painting yourself into a corner inbetween stealing with your life insurance sales.
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You are correct. They do change based on new data... which is why Greenspan just raised his odds of a recession to 50% from 30%. He is not as pessimistic as I am, but he is getting there.
 
Good your showing signs of a pulse and brain.
Greenie is being soundly bashed for his over cutting and has many people putting a slice of the housing prob squarly on his shoulders. He is crawfishing big time.
I have no prob with 30 t0 40%
 
Topspin said:
Good your showing signs of a pulse and brain.
Greenie is being soundly bashed for his over cutting and has many people putting a slice of the housing prob squarly on his shoulders. He is crawfishing big time.
I have no prob with 30 t0 40%
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Unfortunately I cannot say the same for you. You just got done stating over and over that the retail sales numbers DECREASE the odds of a recession. Yet, just today, Greenspan INCREASED his odds of a recession next year. Do you see where your new error is, oh infinite moron?
 
I'm calling a truce. I don't give too fucks what greenie said.
I listen to upbeat and negative economist daily on Kudlow that I think are more in tune than the fossil.
I have called you too many immature names and I know you know economics with the degree and all. I enjoy the fact your on the board with your expertise. You, Dano, Chappy are the only heavy investor business type of people chatting. I appologize for being a childish idiot and playing this game to far.
I'll stick to less than 50% chance and hope I'm right and if you are I hope like usual it's a short shallow recession.
My bad freak, I drug you down to a low level your not used too.
 
Topspin said:
I'm calling a truce. I don't give too fucks what greenie said.
I listen to upbeat and negative economist daily on Kudlow that I think are more in tune than the fossil.
I have called you too many immature names and I know you know economics with the degree and all. I enjoy the fact your on the board with your expertise. You, Dano, Chappy are the only heavy investor business type of people chatting. I appologize for being a childish idiot and playing this game to far.
I'll stick to less than 50% chance and hope I'm right and if you are I hope like usual it's a short shallow recession.
My bad freak, I drug you down to a low level your not used too.
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No worries. I honestly hope you are right, but given the data I just don't see it getting better.
 
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