Morgan Stanley is issuing a recession alert

Topspin said:
track record jackass
your wrong on your fearmongoring, though you have many idiot fans
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Track record? What track record are you talking about?

Also, what "fearmongering"?????? Are any of the concerns I have not valid? If so, please explain to us which ones you think are not a concern with regards to the fundamentals I mentioned.
 
uscitizen said:
Oh if you have money there are still areas you can make money during a recession in.

Selling books on how to make money during a recession if nothing else :D
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Since I'm negative towards you I must also give props where it is due and that was actually a funny response and also a very true one.
 
I share the same concerns SF.
I just am more in line with the consensus of economist at 30 to 40%. Very few if any put it at 70%.
Tech and retail will be close to gangbusters in the xmas season making up for the slack in housing and auto.
More jobs and higher incomes equals increasing GDP
 
Excluding autos, retail sales gained 1.8 percent, the Commerce Department said.

Economists polled by Reuters forecast retail sales to rise 0.6 percent while sales ex autos were also projected to increase by 0.6 percent.

like I said retail sales would come in good, they were way better than expected
 
Topspin said:
Excluding autos, retail sales gained 1.8 percent, the Commerce Department said.

Economists polled by Reuters forecast retail sales to rise 0.6 percent while sales ex autos were also projected to increase by 0.6 percent.

like I said retail sales would come in good, they were way better than expected
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and what did the PPI do toppy???? It jumped 3.2%. The largest gain in at least 25-30 years. Inflation is out of control.... yet the Fed is lowering rates to combat the housing problem. What happens to inflation when rates are lowered? What happens to the dollar when rates are lowered? As the dollar declines what happens to the prices of energy and grain?
 
you don't get a recession out of excessive spending and inflation.
That's what I'm telling you guys, inflation is much more a problem than recession.
The not so market obsessed don't realize that the big boys are screwing average joe with all these rate cuts!!!
 
Topspin said:
you don't get a recession out of excessive spending and inflation.
That's what I'm telling you guys, inflation is much more a problem than recession.
The not so market obsessed don't realize that the big boys are screwing average joe with all these rate cuts!!!
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Top.... stop and think about what you just wrote. If inflation gets out of control.... if people are spending more of their money on energy bills, on higher food prices.... where does that money come from? Where do they cut spending to compensate for the higher energy and food prices?
 
that's obvious usc
no superfrreak the conversation has centered around recession risk. You saw I said inflation is bad for the average joe. It's very good for the investor class of which I proudly reside.
 
It's very good for the investor class of which I proudly reside.
//

yeah a bit too proudly.

But not even good for your "class" in the long run.
 
Topspin said:
that's obvious usc
no superfrreak the conversation has centered around recession risk. You saw I said inflation is bad for the average joe. It's very good for the investor class of which I proudly reside.
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No top... it is not good for the investor class either. As people spend more of their money on energy and food, they spend less elsewhere. While it can be good for the energy investors, on average most people lose money in the market when inflation gets out of control. That is why the Fed trys to keep inflation under control.

If you have a situation, as we do right now, where inflation is a big concern (as you stated) AND where the housing/credit market is in a crunch... that is NOT good for the economy, because one of the two is typically going to get out of control and hammer spending. This is why I believe the odds of a recession are so high right now.
 
ahhh millions of investors invest in energy superdork
and higher consumer spending on non energy as listed is very good for the economy.
Recession odds just went down not up.
 
Uhh, no
But I have an extra 100,000 in a trading account that lets me pay cash for everything. Surely being dept free is an advantage of being wealthy.
Own the bank, instead of paying the bank interest.
 
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