It doesn't surprise me they are tied, equally as many people dislike McCain as Hillary. I'm like klaatu, I think the nominees will emerge later, and will not be McCain and Hillary in the end.
You must understand, McCain has completely alienated himself from core conservatives, on the issue of campaign finance reform, illegal immigration, and the 'Gang of 7' thing. He slobbers around, fawning on liberals like Chuck Hagel, so the liberal media gives him a lot of undeserved kudos. I watch the guy talk, and can't help wondering if he is 'all there' in the head. If it comes down to voting for either McCain or Hillary, I might have to go with Nader.
This may sound odd, but I really think Newt will begin to emerge as the true "conservative" candidate in the '08 race, and it will be between he and Giuliani for the nomination. I would pay good money to see a real debate between Newt and Hillary! For that matter, between Newt and ANY Democrat! When I take an objective look at who has a legitimate shot in the Republican party, who is capable of running a successful presidential campaign, and has majority support among conservatives, I only see Newt and Rudy.
The problem with polls is this... at this point in time, Republicans are stuck in a funk, they really don't know who they want to run in '08. There is no 'natural choice' as is often the case, where the VP steps into the spotlight and rides the coat-tails, Cheney is not going to run for president. The next closest person in the Administration, is Condi, and she has no political experience running for anything, she is not really a politician. So, whoever Republicans pick, will likely represent the views of the Republicans who were okay with Bush, but wished he had been more 'conservative' in his policies.
Pinheads will try to say this will all be tied to positions on the war, and I don't think that is the case. I really don't think a majority of Americans are going to judge the next president on his support for the objectives in Iraq. If this were the case, Dennis Kusinich's numbers would be higher! I really think most Americans understand, we can't just bail in Iraq and ignore the problems of the middle east. And I think the next presidential hopefuls, will have clear and compelling ideas regarding what we should do in Iraq, and the middle east.
Take a look at the polls, the number one issue across the board in every poll is what? .....why does anyone believe, the next candidates for president, will share some mutual view that Iraq was a bad idea and we should get out? That represents one side of the view, that is certain... but the issue is two-sided, regardless of pinhead inability to see the other side. When it all shakes out, you will have two candidates with completely different ideas on what we should do about Iraq, nothing else would make logical sense.
It's still way too early to be declaring who will and will not win the nomination, a lot of things can happen between now and then, and there is a lot of politics yet to be played.