Run this simulator 20 times, tell me if Trump wins once!

Milagro said:
Hmm, it ain't over till the fat lady sings!!

https://heatst.com/politics/donald-trump-will-win-the-election/

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Excellent piece of analysis, thanks for posting.

This from the article:

New polls conducted by Emerson College show Trump closing the gap in the “Rust Belt” states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, with him tied in the swing state of Ohio. The L.A. Times tracking poll has Trump with a very small national lead over Clinton and a recent UPI poll has Trump leading Clinton. The polls indicate that this race is now close both nationally and in swing states.And what about the possibility that the polling models are under-reporting Trump’s level of support. Hillary Clinton has rolled out arguments linking Trump to racist elements in society. Is it possible that people are scared to tell a pollster that they support Trump for fear of being tagged a racist?
Trump’s anti-establishment message has successfully tapped into the American public’s distrust of Washington elites. You can quibble with many of his controversial statements that have hurt his campaign and some of his perceived policy wobbles, but his overarching message that the American middle class is being hurt by government policies that favor the Washington elites has struck a chord. As he hammers leaders of both parties in Washington for incompetence and self-dealing, the American people applaud. And they can see Hillary Clinton as the embodiment of all that they hate about the federal government.
The anti-establishment message helped Trump to defeat the best and brightest that the Republican Party had to offer. Trump used debates to dispatch them one-by-one. Let’s not forget that, although we are already worn out by this election cycle, the American people will be watching the debates in record numbers.
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"The Last Hurrah," by Edwin O'Connor (1956)

Celticguy said:
Tells you she has pinned her hopes on running the clock.
But her fade is picking up speed and inertia.
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She's using old-media tactics. Historically, that has been a proven loser. Trump won the primaries by using the latest technology's dominance, stunning the pundits who are themselves part of the old media.
 
I just got a really absurd result. Ohio, NC, and Georgia went red, and SC went blue. The simulator is pretty naive, I'm assuming they just take the odds of each candidate winning each state as independent variables. When in reality, they're strongly coordinated and states usually move towards or away from one candidate in a predictable fashion. So NC is usually redder than Ohio, Georgia is usually redder than NC, and SC usually redder than Georgia. The country cannot simultaneously be red enough for Ohio to go to Trump and blue enough for South Carolina to go to Clinton.
 
LORD OF CUCKS said:
I'm assuming they just take the odds of each candidate winning each state as independent variables.
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worse.....it simply calculates 15% to Trump and 85% to Hillary and then applies it randomly to the 50 states, letting the electoral votes add up as they may......one time it may say NY and CA are in Trumps 15%, others it gives him AL and DC........
 
New! Imperialism and Genocide[emoji769 said:
;1697705]Republicans tried poll "un-skewing" in 2012, didn't work for them then, won't work for them now.
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If you can't win honestly, cheat.

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