Shouldn't we be at full employment by now?

I dont want to put myself in to deep!
I hear banks are loosening up.
My thing right now is, my income is going to average about 150,000
But only about 50,000 of it is taxable.
So it may be a couple years before I buy
 
The Dude said:
I dont want to put myself in to deep!
I hear banks are loosening up.
My thing right now is, my income is going to average about 150,000
But only about 50,000 of it is taxable.
So it may be a couple years before I buy
Click to expand...

I understand and you aren't exactly looking for a duplex like I did LOL bdifferent circumstances. I could have afforded my mortgage if my tenants crapped out on me. Now it is pretty much turn key. I have turned more and more over to management company because I need the rest. Cuts into margin but with taxes going up on me it actually makes more sense now.
 
I Love America said:
I understand and you aren't exactly looking for a duplex like I did LOL bdifferent circumstances. I could have afforded my mortgage if my tenants crapped out on me. Now it is pretty much turn key. I have turned more and more over to management company because I need the rest. Cuts into margin but with taxes going up on me it actually makes more sense now.
Click to expand...
Yeah well prob pay a management co too!
My brother in law has 10 rentals in San Fran, my youngest son is getting into building. I'm going to suggest to him and his brother what you did with the duplex. I actually lived in one during college on the westbank( lol @ that right). I especially like the I'm not the owner ( don't shoot the messenger) sounds like a perfect way to stop the bs in its tracts. Thanks
 
This is why reading charts is so fun. S&P closed at 1819. Taking short position. With stop at 1840. Next support 1780. This is why I think the market is fixed. Support at 1820 and it literally closes 1 point below support

I also bought FXI puts to take advantage of China taking a dump

If you want to get ballsy you can use SXPU which is a leveraged ETF. It does three times the inverse of the market. So if SPY goes down 1% SPXU will go up 3%.

Gotta be carful because it will be three times the losses too.

UPRO is the leveraged ETF for going long the S&P
 
The Dude said:
Yeah well prob pay a management co too!
My brother in law has 10 rentals in San Fran, my youngest son is getting into building. I'm going to suggest to him and his brother what you did with the duplex. I actually lived in one during college on the westbank( lol @ that right). I especially like the I'm not the owner ( don't shoot the messenger) sounds like a perfect way to stop the bs in its tracts. Thanks
Click to expand...

Yeah I learned the hard way about being a landlord. People will take advantage of your good nature. Remember the crappy clothes and crappy car. Gotta live up the personna. I actually thought about getting into Section 8 housing in the 9th Ward but pussed out. At one point you could pay $15,000 cash for a shotgun home and charge $400 a month which the gubmint subsidizes. Set up the legal stuff rough and it should be ok. Have him rent to college students first. Something by Tulane. You can definitely count on them trashing your stuff but you can get away with charging them a premium too. College students are a cash cow and a great way to start.
 
The Dude said:
That's for rich guys like you!
I'm soo dumb it was about yo go long fxi
Click to expand...

Don't forget my false reads in going short. I got this one right. My FXI put is up 4%. I bought the Aug $34 contracts.

I am kicking myself because a friend gave me a tip on going long GLD two weeks ago and his trade is up 50%. Kicking myself for not doing it. But I am gun shy on Gold. I got the short right this year, but my history on gold hasn't been good. I have mostly been on the wrong side of the money
 
Your way braver than me too, I get nervous driving to brother Martin on Elysian Fields and that's just outskirts of 9th ward.
The book I read on millionaires said the same thing, owners of businesses would not bling out partly to not rile up the troops for raises. I always respected my brother in law going real estate right out of school.
My sister convinced him to sell one of the San Fran houses to buy one in Hawaii.
I don't think he rents it ss much as the San Fran properties.
 
The Dude said:
Your way braver than me too, I get nervous driving to brother Martin on Elysian Fields and that's just outskirts of 9th ward.
The book I read on millionaires said the same thing, owners of businesses would not bling out partly to not rile up the troops for raises. I always respected my brother in law going real estate right out of school.
My sister convinced him to sell one of the San Fran houses to buy one in Hawaii.
I don't think he rents it ss much as the San Fran properties.
Click to expand...

San Fran and Hawaii are way out of my poor ass league. I couldn't get a loan in San Fran.

I bust your balls but if you do read financial statements more power to you. I can't. My head hurts. But it definitely can give insight into a company. I just don't have the wherewithal. I am a believer that price tells me all I want to know.

I also would have bailed out on Apple by now and cut my losses. I hate hanging on to my losers and I pick plenty of losers. I have followed some stocks down to zero.

When I did individual stocks my most spectacular loss was a satellite phone company. I fell in love with the tech but ignored the fundamentals. Lost my entire investment. Watched it go to nothing until they sold to private equity firm. Investors got hosed.
 
I worked for 28 years as texaco and chevron in financial reporting and capital allocation.
I started reading the Wall Street journal at about 26 years old. I actually had a female supervisor tell me that was boring.
I only read the annual reports of a few.
But I analyze the income statements of dozens of companies.
I grew up in terrytown, barely even lower middle class. I went from $5 week allowance to $100 a month paper route at 12 years old. My old man got me hat gig and my first bartending gig at 17. ( I took mixology at Tulane).
I only took my MBA at Loyola to learn how to invest better, none of the bosses at texaco had one and I knew they would resent me for it. Most rich people own a business, I've had a job since 72 and my elders always said don't quit a job till you had a better paying one, so that and fear of having to feed two little ones kept me in the oil business.
One day I'll learn options like you, had a class scheduled with a tennis buddy at Scott trade but I got high instead.
You have done a lot of the things the millionaire next door suggest. The market has done 12 percent on average since 1984 whey texaco hired me and oil stocks even better. Guess that made me lazy on doing more.
My buddy sell call options for cash. One day I'll get un lazy and do the same.
 
The Dude said:
I worked for 28 years as texaco and chevron in financial reporting and capital allocation.
I started reading the Wall Street journal at about 26 years old. I actually had a female supervisor tell me that was boring.
I only read the annual reports of a few.
But I analyze the income statements of dozens of companies.
I grew up in terrytown, barely even lower middle class. I went from $5 week allowance to $100 a month paper route at 12 years old. My old man got me hat gig and my first bartending gig at 17. ( I took mixology at Tulane).
I only took my MBA at Loyola to learn how to invest better, none of the bosses at texaco had one and I knew they would resent me for it. Most rich people own a business, I've had a job since 72 and my elders always said don't quit a job till you had a better paying one, so that and fear of having to feed two little ones kept me in the oil business.
One day I'll learn options like you, had a class scheduled with a tennis buddy at Scott trade but I got high instead.
You have done a lot of the things the millionaire next door suggest. The market has done 12 percent on average since 1984 whey texaco hired me and oil stocks even better. Guess that made me lazy on doing more.
My buddy sell call options for cash. One day I'll get un lazy and do the same.
Click to expand...

Financial statements and annual reports are too much mumbo jumbo for me. It actually takes more guts to invest in your portfolio because there is too much to watch. I just watch one chart religiously and others occasionally. It saves time and all you really have to do is draw straight lines. I don't do much with candlesticks though many swear by them.

My biggest revelation in investing was realizing I am way dumber than Wall St. That may sound silly, but once I got over trying to outsmart the market, I have done better. There is that saying I keep pasted on my wall that says "Bulls and Bears eat but pigs get slaughtered". I actually weathered the financial collapse because it was a year or two after I started trading. I went to cash right before Lehmans because S&P crossed major support. Saved me a boatload in capital. Eventually went short, then missed the beginning of the ride up, and as you know made a few calls that it would stall out. The Fed has complicated my trading for years but I have learned lessons. You have a bigger stock portfolio than I do because I was using the money to buy real estate. I only ever put enough into 401K to take advantage of the match.

The big thing most investors struggle with (and I did too) is shorting the market. There is a perception that you are betting against America and I can see that, but it is nothing more than a reflection of reality. Once you cross that mental hurdle you realize it is just another way to make money. And the great thing is that you don't care if you catch the top or the bottom. You want to catch the trend. Yes, you have famously out my missed calls (although I got a few right) you have to admit the market is over stretched.

FWIW and not trying to bust your balls, but AAPLs chart doesn't look good. $520 is next target on downward trend. You are right it is a great company and I own all their stuff, but the street isn't a fan right now. Little secret. AAPL is the last individual stock I traded. Bought and sold it starting at $500 and rode it up to$680. Never,ever shorted the stock. I would just sell my position when I thought it was overbought. I do not have the balls to short an individual stock..

On a final note. If we get another day or two close below 1820 then downward trend is confirmed for the short term and next target for S&P is about 1780. I am taking a small short position tomorrow and will work my way in over the next week or so if price confirms. My stop will be at 1840 in case I get this one wrong too LOL
 
Last edited:
One last thing I forgot to mention. If you don't want to sell Apple, you could hedge your risk by buying Apple puts.

Another way is to short the Nasdaq 100 as it is heavily weighted with Apple. Last time I checked Apple was 17% of Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). So one way to profit (in your case hedge) from Apples decline is to take a position in PSQ which is an inverse ETF of Nasdaq 100
 
Never understood why people would pass on 401k match, it's as if saying no I don't want that salary!
Also, why wouldn't one do the full 15 percent. My return is over 35 percent prior to any gain.
Pro's can't consistantly beat the market, many times I would buy spy. But I was lucky being in oil.
 
The Dude said:
Never understood why people would pass on 401k match, it's as if saying no I don't want that salary!
Also, why wouldn't one do the full 15 percent. My return is over 35 percent prior to any gain.
Pro's can't consistantly beat the market, many times I would buy spy. But I was lucky being in oil.
Click to expand...

Agree 100% on the match. It is turning down free money. Didn't do the full contribution because I wanted to use the money to invest in real estate. It was risky I guess, but paid off. So like I said, my 401k isn't as robust as some have, the income from my rental properties more than makes up for it. Remember the whole point of a 401K is to generate income. I just chose a different and unorthodox way to get there

PSQ is a screaming buy right now. Looked at VNQ and it looks like a buy right now too, but have to look at it closer
 
I've got about 65,000 in vnq seriously underwater but I like it.
It's one of the 20 or so stocks I bounce in and out of.
I'm looking up the other one. Thanks
 
Help me out with that!
It's QQQ inverse of the Nasdaq 100.
Is that the same as you gain when Nasdaq goes down.
If so I agree netflix , amazon , tesla will drag the Nasdaq bubble down like what it is
Dot.com bubble 2.0
 
The Dude said:
Help me out with that!
It's QQQ inverse of the Nasdaq 100.
Is that the same as you gain when Nasdaq goes down.
If so I agree netflix , amazon , tesla will drag the Nasdaq bubble down like what it is
Dot.com bubble 2.0
Click to expand...

Yes. PSQ is the inverse ETF of QQQ so when Nasdaq 100 goes down you profit.

It would be a good hedge on your Apple shares. For full disclosure I am not shorting it, not because I don't think it is a good option but I use SH which is the inverse of SPY.

If I were to invest in PSQ, here is how I would set up the trade

I would execute a Stop limit order of $18.56. This is one of the biggest things I had to learn and got burned on early on trading and that was chasing a stock. Don't chase it. $18.56 is the daily pivot point

I would set a really tight stop loss because we don't know yet if this is a head fake or if it is a true down turn so I would set a stop loss of $18.25

Initial target is $19.71. This is the area that is tricky. It isn't really arbitrary, but i use the monthly Fibonacci 1.618 level which is $19.71

Let's say you buy 100 shares at $18.56 with your stop loss you could lose $31. At your initial price target you could gain $115. That gives you a risk reward ratio of 3.71. I never execute a trade where the risk reward is below 3

Now this is where you can screw yourself up because you can monkey with the numbers to give you any risk reward ratio you want. That is not investing that is throwing darts. That is where I use pivot points, resistance and Fibonacci levels.

Believe me, it is far from fool proof or everyone would do it. It is just my system and some may use others.

You can find pivot point calculators anywhere of the net and there are lots of apps out there as well. Play with it. Make a smal trade and see how it goes. But remember the stop loss. That is key

Good luck.

This is more fun than bickering at each other
 
Last edited:
I Love America said:
Yes. PSQ is the inverse ETF of QQQ so when Nasdaq 100 goes down you profit.

It would be a good hedge on your Apple shares. For full disclosure I am not shorting it, not because I don't think it is a good option but I use SH which is the inverse of SPY.

If I were to invest in PSQ, here is how I would set up the trade

I would execute a Stop limit order of $18.56. This is one of the biggest things I had to learn and got burned on early on trading and that was chasing a stock. Don't chase it. $18.56 is the daily pivot point

I would set a really tight stop loss because we don't know yet if this is a head fake or if it is a true down turn so I would set a stop loss of $18.25

Initial target is $19.56. This is the area that is tricky. It isn't really arbitrary, but i use the monthly Fibonacci 1.618 level which is $19.71

Let's say you buy 100 shares at $18.56 with your stop loss you could lose $31. At your initial price target you could gain $115. That gives you a risk reward ratio of 3.71. I never execute a trade where the risk reward is below 3

Now this is where you can screw yourself up because you can monkey with the numbers to give you any risk reward ratio you want. That is not investing that is throwing darts. That is where I use pivot points, resistance and Fibonacci levels.

Believe me, it is far from fool proof or everyone would do it. It is just my system and some may use others.

You can find pivot point calculators anywhere of the net and there are lots of apps out there as well. Play with it. Make a smal trade and see how it goes. But remember the stop loss. That is key

Good luck.

This is more fun than bickering at each other
Click to expand...

One other tip I learned the hard way and that is setting up a stop loss. Not every stop loss is created equal. What I mean by that is each stock and ETF has its own range in which it changes. Setting an arbitrary stop loss could get your stopped out early and miss an actual run up. I started using the ATR which is the Average True Range. Easy to calculate and every stock has its own. For example very volatile stocks/ETFs will have a higher stop loss than less volatile ones.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top