Modeling from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) suggests an 11% probability of having a load shed issue on a peak day this summer, an official said during a reliability committee meeting on June 19.
The Texas grid, which was tested this week by a record-breaking heat wave, issued a weather watch and a voluntary conservation notice. On Monday, peak demand at ERCOT stood at 79,304 MW, far surpassing last June’s record of 76,718 MW, and inching close to the grid’s current all-time record of 80,148 MW, which was set on July 20, 2022. The grid operator noted that it set 11 new peak demand records during the summer of 2022.
According to Woody Rickerson, vice president of ERCOT System Planning and Weatherization, new internal modeling—the Probabilistic Reserve Model (PRM)—suggests the grid’s profile for load shed risk dramatically ramps up after 7 p.m., when the sun sets and its solar generation diminishes.
https://www.powermag.com/ercots-ene...shifted-from-late-afternoon-to-early-evening/