The tipping state was Pennsylvania

Walt said:
So if a candidate sees a poll that they are losing, rather than analyzing the poll, figure out how to win, he should just quit?

No, common sense says you look at a poll, rather an election poll, or a sampled poll, and figure out how to turn it around in the future.
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Maybe I'm not following your line of thinking. Anyone who follows the Presidential election knows that there are 'swing states' and we hear repeatedly that there are 7 swing states (or whatever the number is). Biden won those states in 2020 and Trump won in 2024. There's a really good chance in 2028 those same states will play a crucial role in determining the next President.

To a simple mind like mine, I don't think we're breaking any new ground here saying that or it's something political candidates and party's aren't aware of.
 
cawacko said:
Maybe I'm not following your line of thinking.
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To understand how much difference that is needed, look at the tipping point, and figure out how much needs to change to get to that tipping point.

cawacko said:
'swing states'
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The way the figure out what are the swing states is by looking at what is likely needed to get to the tipping point state. If there is no concept of a tipping point state, there is no concept of a swing state.
 
Walt said:
To understand how much difference that is needed, look at the tipping point, and figure out how much needs to change to get to that tipping point.
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Is that like waiting until the polls close before you start finding enough ballots to "win" later?
 
The Trump Administration said:
I noticed that you avoided answering my question, so I don't feel compelled to answer yours, Walty.
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The voting rolls are public. If you think people on that rolls either should not be on the rolls, or did not really vote, that would be easy prove. You just pick a thousand voters, either at random, or among the most likely to be fraudulent, and check to make sure they are real, and did vote. If there are millions of fraudulent votes, you will prove dozens of fraudulent votes in just a thousand.

While you might not be able to do this quickly, a political party could do that in hours. They could be proving thousands of fraudulent votes in a few days....

It is 8 years later, and still none proven. There is a point that we just all admit that trump is a liar, with no evidence to back him up.

Besides, if there was massive election fraud against trump, how did he win two out of three elections?
 
Walt said:
The voting rolls are public. If you think people on that rolls either should not be on the rolls, or did not really vote, that would be easy prove. You just pick a thousand voters, either at random, or among the most likely to be fraudulent, and check to make sure they are real, and did vote. If there are millions of fraudulent votes, you will prove dozens of fraudulent votes in just a thousand. While you might not be able to do this quickly, a political party could do that in hours. They could be proving thousands of fraudulent votes in a few days....It is 8 years later, and still none proven. There is a point that we just all admit that trump is a liar, with no evidence to back him up. Besides, if there was massive election fraud against trump, how did he win two out of three elections?
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Still avoiding my question, Walt? Tsk.
 
Walt said:
To understand how much difference that is needed, look at the tipping point, and figure out how much needs to change to get to that tipping point.


The way the figure out what are the swing states is by looking at what is likely needed to get to the tipping point state. If there is no concept of a tipping point state, there is no concept of a swing state.
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Yes, I read further on tipping point states. Seems more an academic exercise. They said for this race the three tipping point states would be PA, WI, and Michigan.

Knowing that it seems Josh Shapiro would have been a better VP choice. But they didn’t choose him
 
Walt said:
It really wasn't, but if it was, then Democrats have had far more landslides in recent years.


There are literally a few hundred reasonable candidates.
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So, who do you think the Democrats can run in 2028 that isn't a lunatic or a joke?
 
Walt said:
The tipping state was Pennsylvania, and a 0.86% in the PA vote would have meant the President would be Harris. While not the closest election we have ever seen, a 0.005% shift in the 2000 election would have changed the results, 2024 is still very close.

If trump delivers his promised success, then he will widen the tiny margin in future elections. If not, the Republicans are looking at some future lean years. Any normal person realizes this, and I do not see why anyone would argue with it.

Does anyone have an argument with that simple assertion?
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No real argument. It presupposes that MAGA doesn't morph into what it gave hints it was capable of back in 2020, but I think that's a fair assumption.

The GOP is tipping over into the MAGA party now as more GOP legislators disavow their rational responses to Trump so that they may kiss the ring in hopes of currying favor. That's what politicians do.

If the GOP goes TOO FAR MAGA then their options will be limited in the future. MAGA has already shown them a POTENTIAL play book but the MAGA movement itself lacks "strategy". Which is why the Project 2025 stuff is kind of unsettling. It shows that the bottom feeders who usually stay buried in the mud have started rising up hoping to exploit Trump's "levers". And some of them are smart enough to know how to construct strategy and implement plans (something Trump, himself, lacks).

If these two things get together MAGA will do enough damage that the GOP will probably be toast unless they take a page out of the MAGA playbook and do what is "necessary" to maintain their power.
 
TOP said:
Smh... What in the world is he talking about?...;)
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I’m not sure even he knows.
Did you see this post?

Walt said:
Russia cannot move ships into the Black Sea from the Mediterranean during war, and there is nowhere else that they can move ships into the Black Sea from.

So the plan is to have trump declare there is no war, have the Russians station a huge naval force(along with amphibous resources) off the coast of Odessa, and then to attack. They believe they can take Odessa with trump's help, because they were unable to take it without his help.

If trump's "peace" in Ukraine is the peace of the grave, like his Kurdish peace in Syria, once again, no one will respect him. He has a long history of hurting our allies, and helping our enemies. If trump is unable to get NATO membership for Ukraine, the Ukrainians are better off continuing the fight without him. At least they won't have to deal with a major naval attack at Odessa.
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I’m concerned about him.
 
cawacko said:
Maybe I'm not following your line of thinking.
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Not sure , but in his convoluted way I think he tried to say the election was close and if the republicans fuck up or go too far, and they will eventually, dems will do better in the next election or further down the road.
Which is basically what always happens in elections with both parties.
Dems went too far with their identity politics , lawfare, elitism, etc . Now we have MAGA.
Nothing new here.
 
cawacko said:
They said for this race the three tipping point states would be PA, WI, and Michigan.
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There cannot be three tipping point states. By definition a tipping point state is the state that as the votes shift, the election outcome completely changes at that point.
 
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