Pretty astonishing — and terrifying — speech by Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO supreme allied commander and head of U.S. European Command.
https://stripes.com/theaters/europe/2024-04-09/cavoli-nato-russia-nuclear-13516988.html
Here are the main takeaways:
- The US and Russia have virtually no active nuclear hotline — which was one of the staples of Cold War nuclear policy. And this in the middle of a proxy hot war. Cavoli urged the United States to revive the lines of communication with Moscow that helped both countries avoid nuclear conflict during the Cold War. “[Back then] we could read each other’s signals. We knew how to send signals to each other… almost all of that is gone now”, Cavoli said.
- Improvements in NATO’s combat readiness haven’t been matched at the strategic level when it comes to ensuring that the nuclear powers don’t misread each other’s intentions. Hence the risk that they misread each other’s intentions is high.
- Such lines of communication are hard to reinstate because, well, Russia is at war — not just with Ukraine but with the US and NATO (although Cavoli omits this). “Efforts are underway at NATO to update some of the old practices. But there are complications, because we’re trying to reestablish [them] during a hot war”.
- The main tools of nuclear deterrence have been lost. During the Cold War, Cavoli said there was a “very fine and mutually understood vocabulary” between the West and the Soviet Union. “We knew how to communicate verbally and nonverbally about our intentions in a way that gave predictability to the other side, comprehension to the other side. And this was one of the principal things that we used to manage escalation and to achieve deterrence without significant risk”.
- One of the main reasons for the current unprecedented nuclear risk is the abandonment of various nuclear treaties (initiated unilaterally by the US, though Cavoli omits this). “Other factors from the past that were effective included various nuclear treaties, agreements and onsite inspections that helped keep communication lines open. We fell out of the habit of using these mechanisms to signal and… we collectively have walked away from many of the arrangements and the treaties that previously gave us the ability to do this”, Cavoli said.
- NATO’s aggressive anti-Russia posturing is the main obstacle to the reopening of nuclear communication lines. Any push to improve how the United States and NATO communicate with Moscow could be challenged by the alliance’s ongoing efforts to bolster its eastern flank with Russia. The Kremlin in recent years has ramped up its criticisms of NATO and the increasing number of alliance forces positioned in places such as the Baltic states and Poland, which it has characterised as a threat.
- Regardless of what NATO’s actual intentions may be, there is a real risk of accidentally triggering a nuclear conflict. “How do we go ahead doing all of this and reestablishing our collective defense capability without being threatening and accidentally having the effect we don’t want?” Cavoli asked.
Terrifying stuff. If you’re not worried, you’re either not paying attention or you’re burying your head in the sand...