Trump pops to 52%: ‘Best job approval rating on record,’ up with blacks, democrats

BRUTALITOPS said:
how am I making shit up? If you look at the filter for adults bi den is up 15. if you switch to regged/likely he's only up 10. 5 point swing. basic math
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Any time you take a poll and filter it for a smaller subset, you are reducing the sample size which increases the error margin.
You are going from 15 with a margin of error of 3 to up 10 with a margin of error of 5. Basic statistics which is quite different from basic algebra.
 
Darth Omar said:
Speaking of games lol.

How long do you think Joe will be able to keep playing hide and seek with these kinds of poll numbers trending? Some of these pollsters may not be ‘party approved’ but your delusional if you think the Biden campaign just sloughs them off.

Well, maybe they might. They don’t seem to bright, frankly. How could the not see this coming?
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Biden is up by ten. LOL at you.
 
BRUTALITOPS said:
how am I making shit up? If you look at the filter for adults bi den is up 15. if you switch to regged/likely he's only up 10. 5 point swing. basic math
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You claimed that multiple polls have Trump over 50%. If by that you mean one in the last week, and three out of 124 in the last six weeks, then sure.
 
Darth Omar said:
Should someone tell him the popular vote doesn’t count lol?
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Okay, Biden up in Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, should I go on. There is no metric in which Trump is ahead. None. He is being destroyed. Utterly defenstrated. Your defense should be embarrassing to you, but cults aren't big on self awareness.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/EC 070720.pdf

https://www.270towin.com/

I could do this all day.
 
Concart said:
Okay, Biden up in Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, should I go on. There is no metric in which Trump is ahead. None. He is being destroyed. Utterly defenstrated. Your defense should be embarrassing to you, but cults aren't big on self awareness.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/EC 070720.pdf

https://www.270towin.com/

I could do this all day.
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But at the end of the day what would it mean lol?
 
Concart said:
You claimed that multiple polls have Trump over 50%. If by that you mean one in the last week, and three out of 124 in the last six weeks, then sure.
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the quote you were responding to me was about the filters you were using on the site. try to be lucid. If you respond to me again about something off topic, you're retro'd.
 
BRUTALITOPS said:
he does a lot better. switching the filter between "adults" and regged/likely voters results in a 5 point swing. that is huge. Silver, while valuable, is not the be all end all. multiple polls (of people that will actually vote) are now saying trump is over 50%. and even for those that dont, it's clear he's gaining. democrats are shooting themselves in the foot, america does not support your marxist terrorist insurrection
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The polling number that fascinates me the post is how Trump is faring with minority voters. This is not an outlier. I have seen consistent polling that shows this. I don't know what to make of it because no Republican has ever polled this high with minorities that I can remember.

I have a hard time believing that 36% of blacks will vote for Trump. I just can't see that big a shift in four years. If that were to happen, no amount of cheating the democrat party can do could overcome it. You are talking total electoral wipeout if Trump pulls 36%. I mean ELECTORAL wipeout

Now, as I said, I don't think there is a high probability of that happening. I do think it is very possible for Trump to improve on his vote share with blacks this November. Anything north of 15% makes it very, very hard for Hiden Biden to win. Almost impossible if you think about it.

So we will have to see. We are in unchartered territory

Remember, a Republican couldn't win Pennsylvania until Trump did. A Republican couldn't win Michigan until Trump did. A Republican couldn't win Wisconsin until Trump did.
 
Hiden Biden said:
The polling number that fascinates me the post is how Trump is faring with minority voters. This is not an outlier. I have seen consistent polling that shows this. I don't know what to make of it because no Republican has ever polled this high with minorities that I can remember.

I have a hard time believing that 36% of blacks will vote for Trump. I just can't see that big a shift in four years. If that were to happen, no amount of cheating the democrat party can do could overcome it. You are talking total electoral wipeout if Trump pulls 36%. I mean ELECTORAL wipeout

Now, as I said, I don't think there is a high probability of that happening. I do think it is very possible for Trump to improve on his vote share with blacks this November. Anything north of 15% makes it very, very hard for Hiden Biden to win. Almost impossible if you think about it.

So we will have to see. We are in unchartered territory

Remember, a Republican couldn't win Pennsylvania until Trump did. A Republican couldn't win Michigan until Trump did. A Republican couldn't win Wisconsin until Trump did.
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I agree on the black poll numbers.

It seems outlandish, but to get to 36% *even with tricks* suggests there’s significant movement by blacks towards Trump. This is where some wag will pipe up with their ‘approved polls’ which say that number is junk.

And ‘significant movement’ with blacks could be a single digit swing towards Trump. IOW, instead of 9% Trump gets 16% or 17% and already democrats will be sweating bullets in November.
 
Nordberg said:
No way. Are you having a fantasy thread? Trump has his emotionally loaded minority he cannot win with. That is why he is trying to cut down mail-in votes.
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MORE LIES. HE IS TRYING TO PREVENT MASS MAILINGS OF UNSOLICITED BALLOTS, FOR OBVIOUS REASONS THAT THE FRAUDOCRATS KEEP LYING ABOUT.

THE AMERICANS WHO SUPPORT THE POLICE, HATWE VIOLENT THUGS IN OUR CITIES, WNAT AMERICA TO CONFRONT OUR ENEMIES AND HOLD OUR ALLIES ACCOUNTABLE ARE NO "MINORITY".
 
re: 36% number - it doesn't really matter. even if it's off by 20 pts it's still huge for him. democrats may also be overestimating the break of the vote based on past trends.
 
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