APP - Trump's path to 270 Electoral Votes

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Jarod said:
Do you have any citation for the voter registration data?
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It is accurate that voter registration in those states has been in Republicans favor, but only SINCE the primaries. I suspect this is because there was a competitive primary for Democrats in those states, so they registered early. I don't think this is a concern at all for the Biden campaign, but everyone is trotting it out.
 
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...n-lags-crooked-hillary-latest-philly-numbers/

According to the NY Times which is linked in the Gateway Pundit article, Buyden is lagging behind Crooked Hillary by 10 points in Philadelphia. If that is correct then, I can't see a way Beijing Buyden wins Pennsylvania if he underperforms Crooked Hillary in a part of the state where he probably needs to pull B. Hussein Obama type numbers.

Before people scream that the GatewayPundit can't be believed, it is from a NY Times article, but it is behind a paywall.
 
Beijing Buyden said:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...n-lags-crooked-hillary-latest-philly-numbers/

According to the NY Times which is linked in the Gateway Pundit article, Buyden is lagging behind Crooked Hillary by 10 points in Philadelphia. If that is correct then, I can't see a way Beijing Buyden wins Pennsylvania if he underperforms Crooked Hillary in a part of the state where he probably needs to pull B. Hussein Obama type numbers.

Before people scream that the GatewayPundit can't be believed, it is from a NY Times article, but it is behind a paywall.
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If true, that is significant. But, that information does not correlate with the polling numbers coming out of Pennsylvania as a whole, why believe the GatewayPundit over the State Wide polls? I assume he is basing that on polling data also, right?
 
Jarod said:
If true, that is significant. But, that information does not correlate with the polling numbers coming out of Pennsylvania as a whole, why believe the GatewayPundit over the State Wide polls? I assume he is basing that on polling data also, right?
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Well, the times is citing their own poll, which shows Biden leading in Pennsylvania by 7 points. So that number is insignificant. He's cherrypicking one negative data point in a poll that is an absolute disaster for Trump.
 
Jarod said:
If true, that is significant. But, that information does not correlate with the polling numbers coming out of Pennsylvania as a whole, why believe the GatewayPundit over the State Wide polls? I assume he is basing that on polling data also, right?
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As I said, it isn't the Gateway Pundit. They are merely quoting the NY Times. You will note from my post, that I said, if it is true Buyden can't win. I didn't read the actual NY Times piece because it is behind a paywall. You can believe it or not believe it. In one week we will find out who was right and who was wrong.

As I pointed out, Republicans have out registered Democrats in PA. That is significant. Also, in PA, I read that there are well over 200,000 new handgun owners in the state. You have to believe that those people are not going to go through the trouble of buying a gun only to vote for people committed to taking them away. Did you know that the number predictor of voting Republican is owning a handgun? It is true. You can look it up. You are allegedly a lawyer, you should be good at looking things up
 
Jarod said:
If true, that is significant. But, that information does not correlate with the polling numbers coming out of Pennsylvania as a whole, why believe the GatewayPundit over the State Wide polls? I assume he is basing that on polling data also, right?
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Here is some more data that you can mull over and why I think the polls are wrong this year

https://www.americanthinker.com/blo...eed_tells_you_what_the_polls_are_missing.html


Now if you think Rhonda McDaniel is making these numbers up then there is no point continuing this conversation. But, if you believe as I do that these numbers are correct then clearly the polls are WAY OFF because todays pollsters are built to identify people who have voted in the past and not infrequent voters or new voters. Now multiply these numbers across many cities across the country that are probably seeing similar phenomenon and you see the potential for a landslide for Trump that the pollsters aren't capturing. One because they like many are fighting last elections war and two, because they don't want to capture it.

Like I said, I could be wrong but I don't think I am. When Trump is drawing tens of thousands of people for his rallies and Obama can't draw more than a couple hundred in Philadelphia that should tell you something. And don't give me the "they are being responsible for COVID" BS because if people want to show up and see The Obama they are going to do so and nobody is going to stop them.

There are hundreds of spontaneous Trump parades and rallies all over the country. None for Biden. Now if you think that kind of organic support doesn't matter and want to put your faith in the same polls that got it wrong in 2016 and also got Florida governor race wrong, then so be it. But Traflagar group has been one of the most accurate pollsters since 2016. Nate Silver? Not so much.
 
Teflon Don said:
It should be noted that this is not a prediction. This is just a deep level analysis based on what we know today based on state polling, as well as how the candidates are conducting their campaign.

The country has been flooded with some junk polling lately showing Biden with double digit national lead over Trump. Of course Real Clear Politics will be quick to throw these junk polls into their "average" to skew the "average" in favor of Biden.

While I don't completely discount these polls and I will admit seeing Rasmussen with a double digit lead did get my attention, I have to remind myself AND you that the Presidential election is played for Electoral College votes and not the "national vote" despite what the marxists tell you.

So with that in mind does Trump have a path to 270 Electoral College Votes? Actually he has a very strong path.

I have broken the analysis into four groups. Group 1 are states with very little chance of voting for Biden. Group 2 are states marxists make some noise about, but are probably still going to be red. Group 3 are the same battleground states that have been fought over since 2000 and finally Group 4 are today's haul of battle ground states.

So, let's begin


Group 1 = 126 EV
These states should be a lock for Trump.

Montana - 3, Alaska - 3, Idaho - 4, Wyoming - 3, N. Dakota - 3, S. Dakota - 3, Nebraska - 5, Utah - 6, Kansas - 6, Oklahoma - 7, Missouri - 10, Arkansas - 6, Louisiana - 8, Mississippi - 6, Alabama - 9, Tennessee - 11, Kentucky - 8, S. Carolina - 9, Indiana - 11, W. Virginia - 5

Group 2 = 60 EV
This group are states that you heard noises about democrats trying to flip and who knows, maybe someday they will, but not in 2020

Texas - 38, Georgia - 16, Iowa - 6

Group 3 = 47 EV
Basically these two states have been fought over since 2000 and the winner of both of these states has won the election going back decades. I haven't heard much of Biden doing anything in Ohio and things I have been reading is that Biden is struggling big time with the hispanic vote in Florida. One article I read was that his lead in Miami over Trump is 17 points. Hillary won Miami by 30 points. That would make Florida impossible for Biden to win and also explains why he made a campaign stop there. When you are shoring up what should be a safe city this late in the game, that is not good.

Florida - 29, Ohio - 18


Group 1 + Group 2 + Group 3 = 233 Electoral Votes
These are all states Trump won in 2016 and barring something crazy, should be on track to win them again in 2020. That leaves him with 37 Electoral Votes to get to 270

This brings us too..........

Group 4 = 83 EV
This is where all of the action is going to be come election day.

North Carolina - 15 Electoral Votes
Definitely a state that is in play and the democrats are fighting hard or it. It looks like it is coming around to Trump and I suspect that Cal Cunningham's recent scandal is not going to help democrats particularly in their bid to take back the Senate because Thom Tillis was one of the weakest Republicans running for re-election. Right now, I think NC is lean Trump but it is going to be close

Arizona - 11 Electoral Votes
Another state that is going to be close and the polling has sort of been all over the place, but I think it is coming back Trump's way

Maine 2 - 1 Electoral vote
Hillary won Maine 2 in 2016 but it looks like Trump can flip it this year

If Trump wins Arizona, North Carolina and Maine 2 that puts him at 260 needing only 10 Electoral Votes to secure re-election

Pennsylvania - 20, Michigan - 16, Wisconsin - 10, New Hampshire - 4, Nevada - 6

Of the above, Trump won three in 2016 and Crooked Hillary won two

Trump just needs one of the three he won in 2016 to get to 270. Of the three, I think Pennsylvania looks the strongest because of Bidens stance on banning fracking and what I have been reading about GOP voter registration. I think Michigan may be the weakest and Trump could lose that this year

Additionally, New Hampshire and Nevada were very close in 2016 and there are signs that Trump isn't doing horribly if he can flip both of them he gets to 270

And then there are the other states that could be in play. Minnesota was VERY close to flipping in 2016. And while very long shots, there are New Mexico and Colorado (I seriously doubt those)


Final Analysis

Again, despite what others will claim, this is not intended to be a prediction. It is a deep level analysis of the Electoral College as I see it today. Of course this is a very unpredictable year and anything can happen. But, no matter where you sit on the political spectrum it would be foolish to think that Trump doesn't have a path to 270 Electoral College votes which is the only vote that matters
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Is this the post you said I can’t participate in?

I see Biden winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.... with those he does not need Ohio or Florida but he might get them. (I doubt it, but it’s possible).
 
Jarod said:
Is this the post you said I can’t participate in?

I see Biden winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.... with those he does not need Ohio or Florida but he might get them. (I doubt it, but it’s possible).
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Sorry, we need to stay on topic as it relates to your first question

As to your position that Biden will win all four rust belt states and NOT win Florida and Ohio, you need to be more specific. You see, Bush won election TWICE without Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. So.........

what other states do you have Buyden picking up to make up for Florida and Ohio. I do love how nonchalant you are about not taking Florida and Ohio. It goes to show how much Trump has shifted the electoral map.

That we would even be talking about those four states as being on the table should be earth shattering news. That Buyden has to defend them should frighten you to your core. Minnesota in play?

Buyden has the narrowest of paths to victory. And trust me it does not include Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina or Ohio. ZERO chance of Buyden taking any of those states. So now it is up to you to find 270 EV and there is ONLY one and that nets him 272 WITH zero wiggle room for error. None.

Based on your calculations, Buyden has to run the table in the Rust Belt. Trump just needs one. Who would you rather be right now?
 
Teflon Don said:
Sorry, we need to stay on topic as it relates to your first question

As to your position that Biden will win all four rust belt states and NOT win Florida and Ohio, you need to be more specific. You see, Bush won election TWICE without Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. So.........

what other states do you have Buyden picking up to make up for Florida and Ohio. I do love how nonchalant you are about not taking Florida and Ohio. It goes to show how much Trump has shifted the electoral map.

That we would even be talking about those four states as being on the table should be earth shattering news. That Buyden has to defend them should frighten you to your core. Minnesota in play?

Buyden has the narrowest of paths to victory. And trust me it does not include Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina or Ohio. ZERO chance of Buyden taking any of those states. So now it is up to you to find 270 EV and there is ONLY one and that nets him 272 WITH zero wiggle room for error. None.

Based on your calculations, Buyden has to run the table in the Rust Belt. Trump just needs one. Who would you rather be right now?
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You can’t understand what I wrote? Where did you learn to read? Your ASSumptions are incorrect.

If Biden wins Pennsylvania he wins the presidency, in my opinion.
 
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I’m fairly sure Biden will win.... Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Maine, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Oregon, New Jersey, Connecticut, Washington, Delaware, Rhodes Island, New York, Delaware, California, New York, Maryland, Hawaii, D.C., Vermont.

That adds up to more than 270 Electoral Votes.

Biden is also competitive in Georgia, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, so if he loses one of the states I feel good about, he will likely pick up one or more of the ones I consider competitive.
 
Jarod said:
I’m fairly sure Biden will win.... Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Maine, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Oregon, New Jersey, Connecticut, Washington, Delaware, Rhodes Island, New York, Delaware, California, New York, Maryland, Hawaii, D.C., Vermont.

That adds up to more than 270 Electoral Votes.

Biden is also competitive in Georgia, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, so if he loses one of the states I feel good about, he will likely pick up one or more of the ones I consider competitive.
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Biden is not competitive in Ohio. Never has been. You don’t even hear the media talk about it. If Trump wins Ohio by the same amount as 2016 which I think is very probable then he wins PA, MI and WI again

Buyden is clearly worried about PA. He is going to Pittsburgh tomorrow. He isn’t trying to expand the map

I don’t think you really understand how this works. Buyden is in trouble. BIG trouble. He will lose EVERY state you listed as “competitive”. He will have to run the table with everything else which won’t be easy

Even dem Lt Governor is calling for help

Maxine Waters is freaking out

You should be worried. Whether Trump wins or loses, I will be fine and content. You on the other hand? I actually worry about JPP leftists
 
Teflon Don said:
Biden is not competitive in Ohio. Never has been. You don’t even hear the media talk about it. If Trump wins Ohio by the same amount as 2016 which I think is very probable then he wins PA, MI and WI again

Buyden is clearly worried about PA. He is going to Pittsburgh tomorrow. He isn’t trying to expand the map

I don’t think you really understand how this works. Buyden is in trouble. BIG trouble. He will lose EVERY state you listed as “competitive”. He will have to run the table with everything else which won’t be easy

Even dem Lt Governor is calling for help

Maxine Waters is freaking out

You should be worried. Whether Trump wins or loses, I will be fine and content. You on the other hand? I actually worry about JPP leftists
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I am not worrying, I’ll do fine either way. I disagree with your analysis, I think PA is the most important and even if I were way ahead I’d still be camping out in PA because 270= a win, same as 320.
 
Jarod said:
I am not worrying, I’ll do fine either way. I disagree with your analysis, I think PA is the most important and even if I were way ahead I’d still be camping out in PA because 270= a win, same as 320.
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Just getting 270 and is not a landslide

You seem a lot more muted than you were two weeks ago. I suspect you sense what is happening but don’t have the courage to say it. It’s ok, I understand.

Who knows maybe sleepy Joe will buck history and lose Ohio and Florida and still win? Or maybe he won’t.
 
Teflon Don said:
Just getting 270 and is not a landslide

You seem a lot more muted than you were two weeks ago. I suspect you sense what is happening but don’t have the courage to say it. It’s ok, I understand.

Who knows maybe sleepy Joe will buck history and lose Ohio and Florida and still win? Or maybe he won’t.
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Who said anything about a landslide?

What evidence do you have that ‘something is happening’.

Why is Trump campaigning in Georgia? Using your logic, he must be panicking...
 
Jarod said:
What evidence do you have that ‘something is happening’.

Why is Trump campaigning in Georgia? Using your logic, he must be panicking...
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Evidence abounds from democrats raising warning bells to Des Moines Register showing Trump with 7 point lead

You aren’t trying to compare Trumps visit to GA to what Buyden is doing are you?
 
Teflon Don said:
Evidence abounds from democrats raising warning bells to Des Moines Register showing Trump with 7 point lead

You aren’t trying to compare Trumps visit to GA to what Buyden is doing are you?
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I think Trump in GA is more desperate than Biden in PA. One outlier poll is not something happening.
 
Teflon Don said:
It should be noted that this is not a prediction. This is just a deep level analysis based on what we know today based on state polling, as well as how the candidates are conducting their campaign.

The country has been flooded with some junk polling lately showing Biden with double digit national lead over Trump. Of course Real Clear Politics will be quick to throw these junk polls into their "average" to skew the "average" in favor of Biden.

While I don't completely discount these polls and I will admit seeing Rasmussen with a double digit lead did get my attention, I have to remind myself AND you that the Presidential election is played for Electoral College votes and not the "national vote" despite what the marxists tell you.

So with that in mind does Trump have a path to 270 Electoral College Votes? Actually he has a very strong path.

I have broken the analysis into four groups. Group 1 are states with very little chance of voting for Biden. Group 2 are states marxists make some noise about, but are probably still going to be red. Group 3 are the same battleground states that have been fought over since 2000 and finally Group 4 are today's haul of battle ground states.

So, let's begin


Group 1 = 126 EV
These states should be a lock for Trump.

Montana - 3, Alaska - 3, Idaho - 4, Wyoming - 3, N. Dakota - 3, S. Dakota - 3, Nebraska - 5, Utah - 6, Kansas - 6, Oklahoma - 7, Missouri - 10, Arkansas - 6, Louisiana - 8, Mississippi - 6, Alabama - 9, Tennessee - 11, Kentucky - 8, S. Carolina - 9, Indiana - 11, W. Virginia - 5

Group 2 = 60 EV
This group are states that you heard noises about democrats trying to flip and who knows, maybe someday they will, but not in 2020

Texas - 38, Georgia - 16, Iowa - 6

Group 3 = 47 EV
Basically these two states have been fought over since 2000 and the winner of both of these states has won the election going back decades. I haven't heard much of Biden doing anything in Ohio and things I have been reading is that Biden is struggling big time with the hispanic vote in Florida. One article I read was that his lead in Miami over Trump is 17 points. Hillary won Miami by 30 points. That would make Florida impossible for Biden to win and also explains why he made a campaign stop there. When you are shoring up what should be a safe city this late in the game, that is not good.

Florida - 29, Ohio - 18


Group 1 + Group 2 + Group 3 = 233 Electoral Votes
These are all states Trump won in 2016 and barring something crazy, should be on track to win them again in 2020. That leaves him with 37 Electoral Votes to get to 270

This brings us too..........

Group 4 = 83 EV
This is where all of the action is going to be come election day.

North Carolina - 15 Electoral Votes
Definitely a state that is in play and the democrats are fighting hard or it. It looks like it is coming around to Trump and I suspect that Cal Cunningham's recent scandal is not going to help democrats particularly in their bid to take back the Senate because Thom Tillis was one of the weakest Republicans running for re-election. Right now, I think NC is lean Trump but it is going to be close

Arizona - 11 Electoral Votes
Another state that is going to be close and the polling has sort of been all over the place, but I think it is coming back Trump's way

Maine 2 - 1 Electoral vote
Hillary won Maine 2 in 2016 but it looks like Trump can flip it this year

If Trump wins Arizona, North Carolina and Maine 2 that puts him at 260 needing only 10 Electoral Votes to secure re-election

Pennsylvania - 20, Michigan - 16, Wisconsin - 10, New Hampshire - 4, Nevada - 6

Of the above, Trump won three in 2016 and Crooked Hillary won two

Trump just needs one of the three he won in 2016 to get to 270. Of the three, I think Pennsylvania looks the strongest because of Bidens stance on banning fracking and what I have been reading about GOP voter registration. I think Michigan may be the weakest and Trump could lose that this year

Additionally, New Hampshire and Nevada were very close in 2016 and there are signs that Trump isn't doing horribly if he can flip both of them he gets to 270

And then there are the other states that could be in play. Minnesota was VERY close to flipping in 2016. And while very long shots, there are New Mexico and Colorado (I seriously doubt those)


Final Analysis

Again, despite what others will claim, this is not intended to be a prediction. It is a deep level analysis of the Electoral College as I see it today. Of course this is a very unpredictable year and anything can happen. But, no matter where you sit on the political spectrum it would be foolish to think that Trump doesn't have a path to 270 Electoral College votes which is the only vote that matters
Click to expand...

This turned out to be a fairly good analysis, other than AZ.
 
Jarod said:
Based on the current state of the race you are delusional. Trump is losing badly in the 4 Great Lakes states. He is close in Iowa and Ohio. Losing in Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Close in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.

Unless things change dramatically in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania I don’t see how Trump can win.
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You were not delusional... but we will still see about the Midwest.
 
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