It should be noted that this is not a prediction. This is just a deep level analysis based on what we know today based on state polling, as well as how the candidates are conducting their campaign.
The country has been flooded with some junk polling lately showing Biden with double digit national lead over Trump. Of course Real Clear Politics will be quick to throw these junk polls into their "average" to skew the "average" in favor of Biden.
While I don't completely discount these polls and I will admit seeing Rasmussen with a double digit lead did get my attention, I have to remind myself AND you that the Presidential election is played for Electoral College votes and not the "national vote" despite what the marxists tell you.
So with that in mind does Trump have a path to 270 Electoral College Votes? Actually he has a very strong path.
I have broken the analysis into four groups. Group 1 are states with very little chance of voting for Biden. Group 2 are states marxists make some noise about, but are probably still going to be red. Group 3 are the same battleground states that have been fought over since 2000 and finally Group 4 are today's haul of battle ground states.
So, let's begin
Group 1 = 126 EV
These states should be a lock for Trump.
Montana - 3, Alaska - 3, Idaho - 4, Wyoming - 3, N. Dakota - 3, S. Dakota - 3, Nebraska - 5, Utah - 6, Kansas - 6, Oklahoma - 7, Missouri - 10, Arkansas - 6, Louisiana - 8, Mississippi - 6, Alabama - 9, Tennessee - 11, Kentucky - 8, S. Carolina - 9, Indiana - 11, W. Virginia - 5
Group 2 = 60 EV
This group are states that you heard noises about democrats trying to flip and who knows, maybe someday they will, but not in 2020
Texas - 38, Georgia - 16, Iowa - 6
Group 3 = 47 EV
Basically these two states have been fought over since 2000 and the winner of both of these states has won the election going back decades. I haven't heard much of Biden doing anything in Ohio and things I have been reading is that Biden is struggling big time with the hispanic vote in Florida. One article I read was that his lead in Miami over Trump is 17 points. Hillary won Miami by 30 points. That would make Florida impossible for Biden to win and also explains why he made a campaign stop there. When you are shoring up what should be a safe city this late in the game, that is not good.
Florida - 29, Ohio - 18
Group 1 + Group 2 + Group 3 = 233 Electoral Votes
These are all states Trump won in 2016 and barring something crazy, should be on track to win them again in 2020. That leaves him with 37 Electoral Votes to get to 270
This brings us too..........
Group 4 = 83 EV
This is where all of the action is going to be come election day.
North Carolina - 15 Electoral Votes
Definitely a state that is in play and the democrats are fighting hard or it. It looks like it is coming around to Trump and I suspect that Cal Cunningham's recent scandal is not going to help democrats particularly in their bid to take back the Senate because Thom Tillis was one of the weakest Republicans running for re-election. Right now, I think NC is lean Trump but it is going to be close
Arizona - 11 Electoral Votes
Another state that is going to be close and the polling has sort of been all over the place, but I think it is coming back Trump's way
Maine 2 - 1 Electoral vote
Hillary won Maine 2 in 2016 but it looks like Trump can flip it this year
If Trump wins Arizona, North Carolina and Maine 2 that puts him at 260 needing only 10 Electoral Votes to secure re-election
Pennsylvania - 20, Michigan - 16, Wisconsin - 10, New Hampshire - 4, Nevada - 6
Of the above, Trump won three in 2016 and Crooked Hillary won two
Trump just needs one of the three he won in 2016 to get to 270. Of the three, I think Pennsylvania looks the strongest because of Bidens stance on banning fracking and what I have been reading about GOP voter registration. I think Michigan may be the weakest and Trump could lose that this year
Additionally, New Hampshire and Nevada were very close in 2016 and there are signs that Trump isn't doing horribly if he can flip both of them he gets to 270
And then there are the other states that could be in play. Minnesota was VERY close to flipping in 2016. And while very long shots, there are New Mexico and Colorado (I seriously doubt those)
Final Analysis
Again, despite what others will claim, this is not intended to be a prediction. It is a deep level analysis of the Electoral College as I see it today. Of course this is a very unpredictable year and anything can happen. But, no matter where you sit on the political spectrum it would be foolish to think that Trump doesn't have a path to 270 Electoral College votes which is the only vote that matters
