Two months ago Leftists for screaming we're headed for a Recession

Libhater said:
How many leftists here were saying the same thing, that we're headed for a recession? Looks like America under Trump is
headed for or already is savoring our great or greatest economy ever.
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It takes at least 9 months after a recession starts to know we are in a recession.

I was worried that the recession would hit after November 2026(the by election), but I think it might happen well before then(early 2026ish). No one was predicting the recession would be recognized in the first few days.
 
gfm7175 said:
During Trump 1.0, tariffs did NOT raise any prices NOR empty any shelves.
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trump 1.0 did much less with tariffs than he threatened. trump 2.0 has already done worse than he threatened. And there was definitely major logistic disruptions during trump 1.0. The worst we have seen in the last 80 years.
 
gfm7175 said:
And yes, you're correct that "the future" IS indeed "the future". GOOD JOB!
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The Atlanta Fed has a good model for now casting the GDP. Now casting is when you forecast the future numbers on the current situation. It has been making some amazing strides in the last decade or so.

It is not exact, but gives a good range. If we do get 4+%, as you predict, we will have to really rethink the models that are so off.
 
Libhater said:
I know exactly how tariffs work, especially the way Trump is making America get the best deals when it comes to our trading partners.
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American production lines are shutting down because of shortages of rare-earth magnets. Their import is being slowed down by non-tariff barriers placed by the Chinese. Basically, the Chinese are taking a long time to fill out paperwork.

Negotiating past this would take a hyper detailed focus. Say whatever else about trump, he lacks focus. he is busily firing anyone in government who has expertise or focus. There is no good deal coming.

Xi won't even take trump's repeated calls.
 
IBDaMann said:
Then, when FDR decided to bleed the citizenry with an income tax instead of tapping into vastly greater global wealth by allowing foreigners to dump immense wealth onto the US, all of that amazing American growth came to a virtual standstill.
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Income taxes really became a thing during WWII. I am not really sure how we would tax foreigners with them losing almost everything in WWII. They certainly did not have immense wealth to dump on us. The American economy was the only major economy to grow through WWII, with us making up over half of the world's GDP after the war.
 
A new problem with Trump's stupid tariffs is that we are driving countries that were not trading partners to become partners. When Trump oozes off into ignominy, our trading and stature will never be recaptured. We will not be the indispensable country because we are forcing them to seek other partners. We will lose power.
 
Walt said:
trump 1.0 did much less with tariffs than he threatened. trump 2.0 has already done worse than he threatened. And there was definitely major logistic disruptions during trump 1.0. The worst we have seen in the last 80 years.
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Are you referring to the COVID-related disruptions that were caused by Democrat governors shutting down their states and remaining incredibly stubborn against reopening them?
 
Walt said:
November 3rd, 2026 will be here before you realize it.
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The worst parts of Project 2025 are not going into effect until the midterm terms are over. The big ugly bill will be dropped on our heads after the vote. President Stephen Miller knows how painful the bill will be to American citizens, except the wealthy. It is a cruel and nasty bill.
 
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