US Quarter 2 Initial Economic Report Due Today

[gfm7175]

Let's say trump gets a 4% GDP for q2, then his growth first half of 2025 would be 1.75%. Remember Biden's first half of 2024 was 2.1%. And almost no one is saying 4% for trump.

I think it will be quite a bit higher than 4%; 4% was my conservative guess.

To equal Biden, trump would have to get 4.7% GDP growth.

Quite achievable, IMO.

A number that high would definitely be the economy overheating with inflation. It would be a very bad number.

Not necessarily. For this particular quarter, a large decrease in imports will raise the number quite a bit.

What you are looking for is long term growth. If trump has a good 2026, that would be wonderful for you. You have to accept 2025 will not be that great.

2025 is already noticeably better than 2024, and I expect 2026 to be even better yet.

 

[Walt]

I think it will be quite a bit higher than 4%; 4% was my conservative guess.

So you think the GDP will jump from -0.5% to "quite a bit higher than 4%" in one quarter, and you do not think that would overheat the economy?

 

[Earl]

Right.

Nope. The announced date for his "liberation day" tariffs was April 2nd, so companies would've been shooting to have their purchases done before April, which was entirely during Q1, and not during Q2.

They've already been making adjustments since Q1. They can see the writing on the wall (that they no longer have unfettered access to the USA consumer market unless they manufacture their products in the USA). The Q1 massive increase in imports was to gear up for that change and to make the transition to USA-based production smoother.

I thought that he ALWAYS "chickened out"?

Indeed he does.

This makes no sense (and is a paradox). Does he ALWAYS "chicken out" or does he not?

You don't speak for everyone. I'm not "running around trying to figure out" anything. I'm not indulging in fear porn like you are.

??????? Xi is currently shitting his pants that he no longer has unfettered access to the USA consumer market (and that he cannot get around it via transshipping).

Ergo, he was hoping that the Autopen Regime would get another term. Now he has to put that idea on pause until President Trump is out of office.

????

Well done, poor Never Right Walter is out of his league.

 

[gfm7175]

So you think the GDP will jump from -0.5% to "quite a bit higher than 4%" in one quarter,

Yes. I'm conservatively guessing at least 4%. I likewise believe that the July 30th result could be quite a bit higher than that.

and you do not think that would overheat the economy?

The economy is not granny's apple pie.

 

[Walt]

Yes. I'm conservatively guessing at least 4%. I likewise believe that the July 30th result could be quite a bit higher than that.

You realize that the economy can only take so much growth before it overheats, creates inflation rather than growth, and collapses? There is too much of a good thing.

 

[FastLane]

True.

TOO FUNNY! Besides losing a bunch of money due to your S&P 500 fear mongering, you're now unnecessarily paying too much for a couple of cell phones that will be plenty outdated by the time that you'll ever use them.

I could actually use a new phone atm, but mine still works yet (and still keeps a charge decently). I'm not worried about "way more expensive phones".

So his cell phone money is setting idel now and not working for him at all.

 

[gfm7175]

So his cell phone money is setting idel now and not working for him at all.

Yup. That's in addition to overpaying for his phones because he's not using them right away (phones drop in price over time as new models come out).

 

[gfm7175]

You realize that the economy can only take so much growth before it overheats, creates inflation rather than growth, and collapses? There is too much of a good thing.

Economies are not "heated" or "cooled"; they are not granny's apple pie.

 

[archives]

Are you sure? I think you are wrong.


OK, let's start with the obvious, 2025 q1 was negative, so not 1.4%. There is almost no one estimating 2.8% for q2, and it has not been announced. So where did you come up with this?

A simple search shows that it was stolen from an article about 2024, q1 and q2 of 2024. That was back when Biden was President. trump will not have as good of numbers of Biden. That is just a fact.

It is sad that you would try to mislead us with this garbage, but I am not surprised by your lack of a link.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/25/us-gdp-q2-2024.html

Are you surprised?

It’s MAGA, throw shit out there and someone will believe, another will probably even echo it, they learned it from their Messiah, facts don’t matter

 

[gfm7175]

@Walt @archives Let's take a look at the formula for GDP, shall we?

GDP = C + I + G + NX

C = Consumer spending, which was recently reported as increasing, which will increase the topline GDP number.
I = Investment, which I expect to increase, which would increase the topline GDP number.
G = Government spending, which I expect to decrease somewhat, which would somewhat decrease the topline GDP number.
NX = Net imports/exports, which I expect imports to drastically decrease, which would increase the topline GDP number "more than expected".

GDP is going to be quite a bit higher than any "expert" is currently expecting it to be. Mark my words.

 

[Walt]

Economies are not "heated" or "cooled"; they are not granny's apple pie.

Economies can overheat. Basically, a sudden demand for inputs and infrastructure causes inflation, and economic crashes.