US stocks fall sharply and Dow tumbles 1,100 points after the Fed hints at just 2 rate cuts for 2025

Imagine you have one of those 4% mortgages, and we have double digit inflation for a decade. You will end up paying less than 1% of your income on the mortgage.
I try not to regret paying off my mortgage. I really try not to.


Is that right?
 
I try not to give investing advice, but I do try to give people another point of view. The bond market does make sense, but I just want to give you the counter argument.

It is often wrongly thought the only way you can lose money on the bond market is if the bonds default. Actually you can lose a lot of inflation adjusted money if there is high inflation. A lot of people bought bonds at 4% during the 1960's, only to see a decade of double digit inflation during the 1970's. You can lose half the value of your investment in such a situation.

We all had opportunities to lock in 5% interest rates for many years in either bonds or CD's. With trump possibly giving us double digit inflation, I am glad I avoided that.

Another danger is if you need the money early, and interest rates rise after you bought the bonds. You must make up the difference to the buyer of your lower interest rates. A lot of banks have low interest rate bonds on their books they are just praying they do not have to sell before maturity.

Again, just something to think about. Bonds are often a very good investment, especially if you can get them at a high.
I think we had this discussion last year? When rates were still on the rise, I was purchasing short term CDs and Treasuries. When it was clear that rates had peaked, I locked in for 5 years on a number of bonds yielding 5.75%, all under par in case they were called.

A handful have been called, and a few have not (yet). There was a bank that went under when there was a run on money, and they had 10 year Treasuries at 2% tying up most of their assets.

I did make thousands of dollars in interest in the last two years or so, but most mutual funds/ETFs returned more than 25% in the same term. I am using the money from the bonds to purchase equities that I've been watching for a long time now. A couple of aggressive ETFs as well.
 
I think we had this discussion last year? When rates were still on the rise, I was purchasing short term CDs and Treasuries. When it was clear that rates had peaked, I locked in for 5 years on a number of bonds yielding 5.75%, all under par in case they were called.

A handful have been called, and a few have not (yet). There was a bank that went under when there was a run on money, and they had 10 year Treasuries at 2% tying up most of their assets.

I did make thousands of dollars in interest in the last two years or so, but most mutual funds/ETFs returned more than 25% in the same term. I am using the money from the bonds to purchase equities that I've been watching for a long time now. A couple of aggressive ETFs as well.
It sounds like you are making some very good decisions. I like to see people who can think through their investments.
 
Imagine you have one of those 4% mortgages, and we have double digit inflation for a decade. You will end up paying less than 1% of your income on the mortgage.

I try not to regret paying off my mortgage. I really try not to.
Was it a very low rate?
 
It sounds like you are making some very good decisions. I like to see people who can think through their investments.
'You can't time the market' is certainly one of the truest claims ever made. I err on the side of caution, and often watch for too long.

Still...you can't worry about money that you never spent on investing. It's still better than a loss.
 
Was it a very low rate?
6.6%, which is not low, but I could have refinanced it to 3.8%, which is very low. I was on this whole "have no debt" kick. But if you have a 3.8% mortgage during years of double digit inflation, you are saving a lot of money.

It is what it is. I have been extremely blessed, and should not let such things bother me.
 
6.6%, which is not low, but I could have refinanced it to 3.8%, which is very low. I was on this whole "have no debt" kick. But if you have a 3.8% mortgage during years of double digit inflation, you are saving a lot of money.

It is what it is. I have been extremely blessed, and should not let such things bother me.
If you were paying 6.6% when your savings were earning zero, then it was a smart move. I did something similar, and have no regrets.

It helps a LOT with your credit/debt ratio for credit rating, and the better way to think about it is such:

If we are going to see double digit inflation, then we are going to see interest rate hikes. The money you would have used to pay your 3.8% mortgage could be used to earn a lot more in the bond/CD/treasuries markets.

There is never a reason to not be liquid, unless you need the tax write off.
 
'You can't time the market' is certainly one of the truest claims ever made. I err on the side of caution, and often watch for too long.

Still...you can't worry about money that you never spent on investing. It's still better than a loss.
So right. Often the best saying is "it is not timing the market, but rather time in the market." I am going very simple now. I have my money in a Roth IRA, and just want a fairly good return on it. I am doing 70% broad domestic stock fund, 20% broad international stock fund, and 10% Treasury obligations. I am rebalancing it back to 70/20/10 every month. When I turn 59.5, I start taking out 2% to 4% tax free.

I have taken my risks in life, and am moving to a less stressful position. I don't have to think about it anymore.

I am still going to use my non-Roth money for private investments, and to get my kids through school, but I will continue to have that money in the Roth to back me up. I should be grateful that I have been blessed.

The only problem I see is I have a lot of aunts, uncles, and cousins that might ask me for money. In the past, I have helped out a relative here or there, but if times get bad, that could become overwhelming.
 
If you were paying 6.6% when your savings were earning zero, then it was a smart move. I did something similar, and have no regrets.

It helps a LOT with your credit/debt ratio for credit rating, and the better way to think about it is such:

If we are going to see double digit inflation, then we are going to see interest rate hikes. The money you would have used to pay your 3.8% mortgage could be used to earn a lot more in the bond/CD/treasuries markets.

There is never a reason to not be liquid, unless you need the tax write off.
There is a lot of truth in that. Thank you.
 
You are struggling apparently. I know president musk will do nothing to help ignorant magats like you. He used you and trump as pawns.
Maybe they like being pawns? Pedo Don sure seems to suck up to Elon. #Elonald

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Imagine you have one of those 4% mortgages, and we have double digit inflation for a decade. You will end up paying less than 1% of your income on the mortgage.

I try not to regret paying off my mortgage. I really try not to.
No regrets here, but very few, if any, JPP MAGAts own their own homes much less have a mortgage.
 
There are two problems before we even get to that point. First, trump's threats are spooking the market. Second, trump's threats are normalizing the threats. Not to mention the very real effect on the Fed that the threats have.
Trump Trump.

This started 40 or 50 years ago when Greenspan lobbied for and got derivatives passed into law. That allowed the banksters to bet on something without owning. If you lose how does that money get paid?

History is an important part of numbers, Walt.
 
Trump Trump.

This started 40 or 50 years ago when Greenspan lobbied for and got derivatives passed into law. That allowed the banksters to bet on something without owning. If you lose how does that money get paid?

History is an important part of numbers, Walt.
I have been told that this is at base a scheme to artificially inflate GDP, but at great risk.
 
This started 40 or 50 years ago when Greenspan lobbied for and got derivatives passed into law. That allowed the banksters to bet on something without owning. If you lose how does that money get paid?

History is an important part of numbers, Walt.
Was that before or after the war between the leprechaun and the unicorns? If you make up history, it does nothing to help illuminate numbers.
 
The world has its national debt and a derivatives debt. What if derivatives debt is one quadrillion dollars? Who is going to collect the money?
We just barely, and at great cost, avoided the derivatives from crashing the entire global economic structure during the Great Recession. There was talk that we should take this as a lesson and stop doing it. I have been told that the derivative market value is now at least five times in constant dollars what it was then.

This sounds like "Buckle Up!"
 
The world has its national debt and a derivatives debt. What if derivatives debt is one quadrillion dollars? Who is going to collect the money?
Derivatives tend to pair off very evenly, so it is not really "one quadrillion dollars." One way we know that is there have been no quadrillionaires minted.
 
We just barely, and at great cost, avoided the derivatives from crashing the entire global economic structure during the Great Recession. There was talk that we should take this as a lesson and stop doing it. I have been told that the derivative market value is now at least five times in constant dollars what it was then.

This sounds like "Buckle Up!"
Well said. I have no idea why we're still afloat. Empire is a strange thing.
 
Well said. I have no idea why we're still afloat. Empire is a strange thing.
We have a system that works well, and has a long tradition. As a general social rule, the age of something is the average number of years it has left. So if a company, or a country is a year old, it has an average of one year more of life. Some will live for another hundred years, and then have an average of a hundred more years of life.

The reason that works is that survival and traditions set patterns that keep going.

Anyway, those are the same traditions that trump is trying to replace with veneration of a 78 year old man. If our country is a personality cult of a 78 year old man, then we have a few more years at most left. donnie jr would never be able to take his father's place.
 
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