We need better gun reform: 23 shot at Oklahoma lake party

repeating demoncraps doesn’t turn vibes into data. Crime rates don’t track party lines, cashless bail exists in only a few states, and the research shows demographics and economics drive crime, not your favorite insult. If you’ve got numbers, post numbers. If not, you’re just narrating your feelings.
No crime rates track political policies and urban areas controlled by demoncraps have poor economic outcomes. Theyre shit holes and the list you posted are all the numbers we need. On top of all that you STILL havent posted a possible solution to the problem instead you focus on me. Demoncrap debate tactic 101
 

1️⃣

The numbers he posted are roughly in the correct range for Black population percentages in those cities, based on U.S. Census Bureau estimates.

But — and this is the key —population percentages do not prove causation.

Listing demographics is not the same as demonstrating a link between race and crime.


2️⃣

No. Criminologists overwhelmingly agree that race is not a causal factor in crime rates.

The strongest predictors of violent crime are:

  • concentrated poverty
  • income inequality
  • housing segregation
  • underfunded schools
  • lack of economic mobility
  • policing strategy
  • population density
  • age distribution
These factors correlate with historical segregation, redlining, and resource deprivation, which disproportionately affect Black communities — but race itself is not the cause.

Authoritative sources:

  • Brennan Center for Justice
  • National Institute of Justice
  • American Sociological Association
  • FBI Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)
  • CDC National Center for Health Statistics
All of them emphasize structural conditions, not race.


3️⃣

This claim is not supported by evidence.

Why?

✔️ Crime is concentrated in​

Large cities — regardless of political leadership — have higher crime rates than suburbs or rural areas.This is a universal pattern across countries.

✔️ Many large U.S. cities lean Democratic​

So the correlation is city size, not party.

✔️ When comparing similar‑sized cities, party control does NOT predict crime​

Example:

  • Some Republican‑led cities have high violent crime rates (e.g., Jacksonville, Tulsa, Oklahoma City).
  • Some Democratic‑led cities have lower rates than expected for their size.

✔️ Crime rose and fell nationally under both parties​

The 2020 spike happened nationwide, including in Republican‑led cities.The 2022–2024 declines also happened nationwide.

Conclusion: There is no consistent causal link between party control and crime rates.
Democrap isnt a race its a failed ideology that seeks to pass responsibility for an individuals actions onto everyone and everything else but the individual.
 
Democrap isnt a race its a failed ideology that seeks to pass responsibility for an individuals actions onto everyone and everything else but the individual.
you didn’t address a single point I made.

I laid out the data, the structural predictors, and the consensus from every major criminology institution. You responded with a partisan insult.

Personal responsibility is not a causal model. It’s a slogan. Crime trends are measured at the population level, and the factors that predict them, poverty concentration, segregation, resource deprivation, are well‑documented.

If you want to argue ideology, just say that. If you want to argue crime data, you’ll need something more substantial than a catchphrase.
 
you didn’t address a single point I made.

I laid out the data, the structural predictors, and the consensus from every major criminology institution. You responded with a partisan insult.

Personal responsibility is not a causal model. It’s a slogan. Crime trends are measured at the population level, and the factors that predict them, poverty concentration, segregation, resource deprivation, are well‑documented.

If you want to argue ideology, just say that. If you want to argue crime data, you’ll need something more substantial than a catchphrase.
I dont care what we debate the topic of the thread, is we need better gun reform and thus far not a single suggestion about what "better gun reform" looks has been put forth. So basically you can shit your pants about what I havent done, either offer a suggest about what better gun reform looks life or fuck off. I dont give a shit
 

1️⃣

The numbers he posted are roughly in the correct range for Black population percentages in those cities, based on U.S. Census Bureau estimates.

But — and this is the key —population percentages do not prove causation.

Listing demographics is not the same as demonstrating a link between race and crime.


2️⃣

No. Criminologists overwhelmingly agree that race is not a causal factor in crime rates.

The strongest predictors of violent crime are:

  • concentrated poverty
  • income inequality
  • housing segregation
  • underfunded schools
  • lack of economic mobility
  • policing strategy
  • population density
  • age distribution
These factors correlate with historical segregation, redlining, and resource deprivation, which disproportionately affect Black communities — but race itself is not the cause.

Authoritative sources:

  • Brennan Center for Justice
  • National Institute of Justice
  • American Sociological Association
  • FBI Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)
  • CDC National Center for Health Statistics
All of them emphasize structural conditions, not race.


3️⃣

This claim is not supported by evidence.

Why?

✔️ Crime is concentrated in​

Large cities — regardless of political leadership — have higher crime rates than suburbs or rural areas.This is a universal pattern across countries.

✔️ Many large U.S. cities lean Democratic​

So the correlation is city size, not party.

✔️ When comparing similar‑sized cities, party control does NOT predict crime​

Example:

  • Some Republican‑led cities have high violent crime rates (e.g., Jacksonville, Tulsa, Oklahoma City).
  • Some Democratic‑led cities have lower rates than expected for their size.

✔️ Crime rose and fell nationally under both parties​

The 2020 spike happened nationwide, including in Republican‑led cities.The 2022–2024 declines also happened nationwide.

Conclusion: There is no consistent causal link between party control and crime rates.
As usual, Google AI takes the Leftist position on this and comes up with a fail

In 2019, Black people made up 12.2% of the U.S. population. Blacks, however, represent 26.6% of total arrests, including 51.2% of murder arrests, 52.7% of robbery arrests, 28.8% of burglary arrests, 28.6% of motor vehicle theft arrests, 42.2% of prostitution arrests, and 26.1% of drug arrests




Blacks disproportionately commit far more crime than their numbers in the population compared to other racial groups do. That is a long-proven fact backed by decades of data. It is an incontrovertible fact. It isn't a "no consistent causal link," as Google AI puts it.

Blacks also tend to live in urban areas where Democrats have held power for often decades unbroken. So, while party affiliation of the government really makes no big difference, the racial make up of a city does. Democrats tend to attract Blacks and other minorities to cities they run. The result is those cities end up with more crime as demonstrated.


This map and article show the same thing. Democrat run cities with large, even majority, Black populations even in red states have disproportionately more crime--far more crime.

 
As usual, Google AI takes the Leftist position on this and comes up with a fail

In 2019, Black people made up 12.2% of the U.S. population. Blacks, however, represent 26.6% of total arrests, including 51.2% of murder arrests, 52.7% of robbery arrests, 28.8% of burglary arrests, 28.6% of motor vehicle theft arrests, 42.2% of prostitution arrests, and 26.1% of drug arrests




Blacks disproportionately commit far more crime than their numbers in the population compared to other racial groups do. That is a long-proven fact backed by decades of data. It is an incontrovertible fact. It isn't a "no consistent causal link," as Google AI puts it.

Blacks also tend to live in urban areas where Democrats have held power for often decades unbroken. So, while party affiliation of the government really makes no big difference, the racial make up of a city does. Democrats tend to attract Blacks and other minorities to cities they run. The result is those cities end up with more crime as demonstrated.


This map and article show the same thing. Democrat run cities with large, even majority, Black populations even in red states have disproportionately more crime--far more crime.


1. Arrest statistics ≠ crime causation

Gardner cites arrest percentages.Those numbers are real, but they do not prove that race causes crime.

Criminology 101:

  • Arrest data reflects policing patterns, neighborhood concentration, and resource allocation, not just offending rates.
  • Black Americans are policed more heavily, especially in high‑poverty urban areas.
  • Arrest rates are not the same as crime commission rates.
  • The FBI itself warns that arrest data cannot be used to infer racial propensity for crime.
This is why every major criminology body rejects “race causes crime” arguments.


2. What the research actually says

Here are the strongest predictors of violent crime, according to:

  • National Institute of Justice
  • American Sociological Association
  • Brennan Center for Justice
  • CDC National Center for Health Statistics
  • FBI UCR (methodology notes)
The top predictors are:

  • concentrated poverty
  • income inequality
  • residential segregation
  • underfunded schools
  • lack of economic mobility
  • policing strategy
  • population density
  • age distribution
Race is not on the list. Because race is not a causal variable — it is a demographic category correlated with structural conditions.

This is the consensus of the field.


3. Why Black arrest rates are higher (the actual mechanism)

Black Americans are disproportionately represented in:

  • high‑poverty neighborhoods
  • historically redlined districts
  • areas with high police presence
  • cities with concentrated disadvantage
These conditions increase exposure to crime, victimization, and police contact.

Criminologists call this structural risk concentration.

It is not genetic.It is not racial.It is environmental.


4. Gardner’s claim that “race predicts crime” is rejected by the very sources he cites

He links:

  • Online Library of Liberty
  • NumberAnalytics
  • ReasonWithoutRestraint
These are not criminology journals.They are opinion essays, data blogs, or ideological commentary.

None of them overturn the consensus of:

  • NIJ
  • ASA
  • FBI
  • CDC
  • DOJ
  • Every major criminology department in the U.S.

5. “Democrat cities have more crime because they have more Black people” is factually wrong

This is the core of Gardner’s argument, and it fails for three reasons:


A. Crime is concentrated in large cities everywhere

Globally, not just in the U.S.

  • London (liberal) → higher crime
  • Tokyo (conservative) → higher crime
  • São Paulo → higher crime
  • Johannesburg → higher crime
Urban density = more crime.This is a universal pattern.


B. Many Republican‑led cities have high violent crime rates

Examples:

  • Jacksonville
  • Tulsa
  • Oklahoma City
  • Fort Worth
  • Miami
  • Anchorage
Party control does not predict crime.


C. Crime rose and fell nationally under both parties

  • 2020 spike → nationwide
  • 2022–2024 decline → nationwide
If party or race caused crime, these trends would diverge.They don’t.


6. The DW.com and Axios links do NOT support Gardner’s conclusion

He cites two articles:

DW.com

DW explicitly concludes:

“There is no clear evidence that Democrat‑led cities have more crime because they are Democrat‑led.”

Axios

Axios shows homicide rates in blue cities in red states, which supports:

  • urban concentration
  • state‑level policy mismatches
  • resource disparities
It does not support “race causes crime.”

He is misreading both sources.


7. The key logical error: conflating correlation with causation

Gardner’s argument:

  1. Some cities with large Black populations have high crime
  2. Those cities often vote Democratic
  3. Therefore race → crime and Democrats → crime
This is a textbook ecological fallacy.

The correct causal chain, supported by research:

Historical segregation → concentrated poverty → higher crime exposure → higher arrest rates

Race is not the cause.Race is the demographic marker of who was historically segregated.
 
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