269-269 Scenarios

Rationalist

Rationalist

Hail Voltaire
 
I notice every single one of those requires Obama to win PA (as does any likely situation that gives Obama more than 269 electoral votes......guess where most of the money is going to be spent this election....
 
KingofOwls said:
I wouldn't say that. 6 months is a long time. Romney has already done very well at closing big double digit gaps in other states. I think he was behind by 10 in ohio a month ago and is now tied.
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I'll be floored if Obama loses PA. Rasmussen has Romney slightly ahead but the real pollsters give Obama 7-8 points right now.
 
christiefan915 said:
I'll be floored if Obama loses PA. Rasmussen has Romney slightly ahead but the real pollsters give Obama 7-8 points right now.
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it's really not that inconceivable. again, even if we are to discount rasmussen, 7-8 points over 6 months isn't that hard to overcome.
 
KingOfGods said:
It is possible that a tie will occur in the electoral college come January. Here are a few possible scenarios:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kQa
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kPU
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kQb
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kPV
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kPW
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kPZ

In the event that there is a tie in the EC, Romney will become President, unless the Democrats retake the House (highly unlikely).
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You/they are in fantasy land. Romney is down 253 to 170 in the electoral counts. Romney has a loooong way to go to even things up.
 
KingOfGods said:
It is possible that a tie will occur in the electoral college come January. Here are a few possible scenarios:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kQa
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kPU
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kQb
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kPV
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kPW
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kPZ

In the event that there is a tie in the EC, Romney will become President, unless the Democrats retake the House (highly unlikely).
Click to expand...

I don't think this will be close. Either the economy will recover and Obama will win big or the economy will weaken and Romney will win easily.
 
KingofOwls said:
I wouldn't say that. 6 months is a long time. Romney has already done very well at closing big double digit gaps in other states. I think he was behind by 10 in ohio a month ago and is now tied.
Click to expand...
Romney has to win virtually all the swing States. If Obama just picks up OH or FL he wins. The statistical probability of Romney picking up 8 of the 10 swings States (including OH and FL) considering that Obama has small leads in 7 of the 10 swing States are remote. Either some event will have to occurr or Obama will have to make some sort of monumental gaff like Carter did when he debated Reagan.

My observation is that the even probably won't occur and that Romney's only real chance of defeating him is hanging on the debates. Even then he must count on Obama messing that up. I don't see that happening as Obama is a far more skilled public speaker and debator than Romney is.
 
Derp Derp said:
You/they are in fantasy land. Romney is down 253 to 170 in the electoral counts. Romney has a loooong way to go to even things up.
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No, he doesn't. That count you quote gives Obama MI (+5), WI (+4), NV (+8), OR (+4) all of which show Obama weakening now that Romney is not getting battered by the other Reps.

The economy starts weakening (mainly due to Europe) and the voters will tend to take it out on incumbents.

Add in the effect that Obama's stance on gay marriage will unfortunately have and FL, MO, IA and NC will very likely go Romney now.
 
Derp Derp said:
Romney has to win virtually all the swing States. If Obama just picks up OH or FL he wins. The statistical probability of Romney picking up 8 of the 10 swings States (including OH and FL) considering that Obama has small leads in 7 of the 10 swing States are remote. Either some event will have to occurr or Obama will have to make some sort of monumental gaff like Carter did when he debated Reagan.
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The statistical probability? you crack me up. We are almost 6 months out. With narrow leads in states that have been 'given' to Obama in the 253 count you quote, you are assuming that none of them slip back into the contested column of the ledger.

My observation is that the even probably won't occur and that Romney's only real chance of defeating him is hanging on the debates. Even then he must count on Obama messing that up. I don't see that happening as Obama is a far more skilled public speaker and debator than Romney is.
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Or perhaps the economy slowing down? Europe imploding? China's growth falling off? CA causing a chain reaction downward?
 
I remember when McCain was going to win PA.

I remember when W was going to win PA against Kerry.

I am sure that Romney will be just as successful. But waht I love about it is every four years the righties get themselves all excited "and did you hear? we're going to win PA!!!!" I love watching their delusional hopes get crushed over and over again.

I'll make some popcorn! Hey, maybe on account of Chris Christie you guys will take Jersey this year too! In fact, it's definite! Yeah, Romney's taking Jersey!

I better make two tubs of popcorn! Extra butter in honor of Christie!
 
Darla said:
I remember when McCain was going to win PA.

I remember when W was going to win PA against Kerry.

I am sure that Romney will be just as successful. But waht I love about it is every four years the righties get themselves all excited "and did you hear? we're going to win PA!!!!" I love watching their delusional hopes get crushed over and over again.

I'll make some popcorn! Hey, maybe on account of Chris Christie you guys will take Jersey this year too! In fact, it's definite! Yeah, Romney's taking Jersey!

I better make two tubs of popcorn! Extra butter in honor of Christie!
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yeah, the only way PA comes into play is if there is a negative affect of the gay marriage stance AND the economy tanks from here.
 
Superfreak said:
1) the 'real pollsters'??? LMAO

2) the last Rasmussen poll has Obama up in PA by 1, but that was back in February. Not sure if you meant that one or the general. In general Romney up 4-5.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

A list of all the polls...
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1) :D

2) Yeah, I looked at that RCP site yesterday but then went to Rasmussen daily tracking and that's where I got the 4%.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney earning 48% of the vote and President Obama attracting 44% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided.

Remember that brief shining moment for cons when McCain pulled ahead, for about a day or two?
 
Superfreak said:
yeah, the only way PA comes into play is if there is a negative affect of the gay marriage stance AND the economy tanks from here.
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The thing with PA is that you have all those in the middle of the state, actually the biggest part of the state, who cling to their guns and religion :) but east and west usually goes solidly for the Dem candidate, and they have the numbers.
 
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