269-269 Scenarios

I had a dream that Romney won the election. Sometimes my dreams are very prescient, but I don't know if this one will be. I remember I was really angry with Rahm Emmanual in this dream for some reason.
 
Darla said:
I had a dream that Romney won the election. Sometimes my dreams are very prescient, but I don't know if this one will be. I remember I was really angry with Rahm Emmanual in this dream for some reason.
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lol... It will all depend on the economy between now and then. If Europe remains in turmoil, it will continue to slow world growth to the point we may see a contraction. At this point we are strong enough to withstand a Greek exit, but if the Euro as a whole blows... well... game over for our economy which will obviously have a negative impact on incumbents.

That said... do not distract the thread from mocking poor little Mutt.
 
Superfreak said:
lol... It will all depend on the economy between now and then. If Europe remains in turmoil, it will continue to slow world growth to the point we may see a contraction. At this point we are strong enough to withstand a Greek exit, but if the Euro as a whole blows... well... game over for our economy which will obviously have a negative impact on incumbents.

That said... do not distract the thread from mocking poor little Mutt.
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Well, looks to me like Merkel is starting to backtrack. Saying that she wants to help Greece. I don't think things are going so great for Ms Fuhrer. And I don't think she wants to preside over the demise of the euro. I think things are going to start to shift there ever so slightly, so we will see.
 
That was a politically incorrect shot at the Germans. Watch, Tom will have a big problem with that! "PC" is only uncool when you feel like being an asshole. When it's your ox being gored, oh how the worm turns. Yes I realize he's not German, but in Europe he's a con, you can bet he loves him some Merkel!
 
Rana said:
Rural verses urban?
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Yes. It's kinda like that here in Ohio. The majority of Democrats are in the Columbus and Cleveland region with most conservatives in the small town/rural regions of the State. The Cincinnati/Dayton regions are different in that they have large hillbilly and Catholic populations and they tend to vote on right wing indetity issues.
 
KingofOwls said:
the election is not going to be held right now, it's going to be held in 6 months.

your faulty logic is assuming that everything stays exactly static. your other faulty assumption is that romney and obama have equal chances of winning various states. you fail to take into account how money effects things, how momentum effects projections, how demographics effect projections.

Historically, whoever was in the lead in april-may won about 50% of the time when the election came around. People still haven't gotten to know romney. There have been no debates, no massive ad campaigns yet, etc.

The race is just beginning. For you to just treat like electoral politics is a vacuum while isolating every other variable, shows your lack of knowledge in this area.

Opinions and political affiliation are a function of time.
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No, you're using your faulty Massachusets reading skills. I've drawn the conclusion that as of "right now" Romney is behind and is playing catchup and that if the election were held today he would lose. That's a fact. A lot can happen between now and November that can change everything, hell even a moron like Super Freak can figure that out, but if the poll numbers for the States are the same in November (and that's a big "if") as they are now then Romney will lose.
 
Superfreak said:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

243-170 now...

See how fast that happened? LMAO...
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Lord of mercy but you're slow. A lot can happen between now and November that can change everything. We all know that...DUH. I'm talking RIGHT NOW and right now the statistics show that Obama has a substantial lead in the electoral vote and Romney is playing catch up and even with this "change' if the election were held today Romney would lose.

If we are where we are at right now, meaning the economy, in November then Obama will probably win. It would take a significant decline in the economy or some other event to change the current dynamic and who knows. Maybe Obama will do what Carter and Dukakis did and take significant leads into the Presidential debates and completely blow the debates and self implode. I don't forsee that happening but the fact that it has happened before means it could happen again.
 
Darla said:
Well, looks to me like Merkel is starting to backtrack. Saying that she wants to help Greece. I don't think things are going so great for Ms Fuhrer. And I don't think she wants to preside over the demise of the euro. I think things are going to start to shift there ever so slightly, so we will see.
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um... they are shifting in the wrong direction. 'Ms. Fuhrer'??? Really? That is pretty pathetic on your part.
 
Derp Derp said:
Lord of mercy but you're slow. A lot can happen between now and November that can change everything. We all know that...DUH. I'm talking RIGHT NOW and right now the statistics show that Obama has a substantial lead in the electoral vote and Romney is playing catch up and even with this "change' if the election were held today Romney would lose.
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You really aren't that bright are you Mutt? The OP was talking about how there could be a 269/269 tie after the election results were tabulated. You then responded with 'u be in fantasy land master is up 253-170... blah blah blah'. So do tell us again how you were talking about what would happen right now. Idiot.
 
Superfreak said:
um... they are shifting in the wrong direction. 'Ms. Fuhrer'??? Really? That is pretty pathetic on your part.
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So says you. The voters of europe have a different opinion and she just lost a big election in Germany. Message sent, and apparently, received. Oh well, the iron fist of dictatorship would be soooo much better for The Austurians.
 
Derp Derp said:
Well derp, derp Tinkerbell...that's what I was pointing out! LOL
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You do realize we can still see your previous posts, do you not?

That was not your point. You stated that Obama was in front despite Reps attacking him relatively unanswered during the primaries. I then pointed out to you that the Reps were attacking each other far more than they were Obama which made your point false.
 
Darla said:
So says you. The voters of europe have a different opinion and she just lost a big election in Germany. Message sent, and apparently, received. Oh well, the iron fist of dictatorship would be soooo much better for The Austurians.
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Yeah, the voters are like Dung... they want want want and don't give a damn if their countries have the ability to pay for what they want. Have you seen the world markets since the Greek/French votes? Did you notice the fact that China stated it would no longer buy any European debt? There is a reason. It isn't because they see things about to get better.
 
Superfreak said:
Yeah, the voters are like Dung... they want want want and don't give a damn if their countries have the ability to pay for what they want. Have you seen the world markets since the Greek/French votes? Did you notice the fact that China stated it would no longer buy any European debt? There is a reason. It isn't because they see things about to get better.
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Oh there's way too much uncertainty for the markets to get better right now.

I dont believe you are reading the voters' message correctly, but that is to be expected. I think this will end up being a positive move. But I am not an Austurian. So there is zero chance we will ever degree. WHy dont' you post about 50 "do tell" posts anyway?
 
Darla said:
Oh there's way too much uncertainty for the markets to get better right now.

I dont believe you are reading the voters' message correctly, but that is to be expected. I think this will end up being a positive move. But I am not an Austurian. So there is zero chance we will ever degree. WHy dont' you post about 50 "do tell" posts anyway?
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lol... so if I use CAPS, you go into a frenzy. If I ask someone to explain their position, you go into a frenzy. Why not save us all some time and just create a list of what little things cause you to flip out?

Also... I know what the voters message is. It is 'we want lots of stuff promised to us and we don't want to pay for it, let future generations pay for our stuff'. It is the same message Dung shouts out on a daily basis. So once again they will demand that their leaders push the problem down the road.
 
Derp Derp said:
I've drawn the conclusion that as of "right now" Romney is behind and is playing catchup and that if the election were held today he would lose. That's a fact.
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A completely irrelevant fact. The election is not held today. It's held at the end of massive spending, campaigning, adbuys, momentum shifts, etc

Electoral politics does not happen in a vacuum. Just because something is X today doesn't mean that it will be be X in 4 months. Sometimes, you can extrapolate data and be very certain of various paradigm shifts on the horizon.

Every poll over the last 2 months basically shows romney gaining in every category. Gaining with independents/moderates. Gaining with women, gaining in swing states.

It's like if two runners are having a marathon, one guy gets an early lead, and then stops dead in his tracks to eat a sandwich. And you are on the sidelines saying "hey, if you stopped the race RIGHT NOW, sandwich guy would win! The guy without the sandwich has to run a lot further!"

A lot can happen between now and November that can change everything,
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Yes, a lot can happen. I do believe that was my original argument, that looking at politics as a vacuum and not taking into account a whole host of variables is going to leave you holding an empty sack.

Electoral politics is a function of time.
 
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