269-269 Scenarios

Derp Derp said:
Romney has to win virtually all the swing States. If Obama just picks up OH or FL he wins. The statistical probability of Romney picking up 8 of the 10 swings States (including OH and FL) considering that Obama has small leads in 7 of the 10 swing States are remote. Either some event will have to occurr or Obama will have to make some sort of monumental gaff like Carter did when he debated Reagan.

My observation is that the even probably won't occur and that Romney's only real chance of defeating him is hanging on the debates. Even then he must count on Obama messing that up. I don't see that happening as Obama is a far more skilled public speaker and debator than Romney is.
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lol, dude....remember the predictions you've made about Wisconsin?.....the surest way for you to make Romney a winner is to predict he loses....
 
christiefan915 said:
The thing with PA is that you have all those in the middle of the state, actually the biggest part of the state, who cling to their guns and religion :) but east and west usually goes solidly for the Dem candidate, and they have the numbers.
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Which is why I stated that the economy has to really go south to put PA into play. The gay marriage position won't be enough on its own to make PA close.
 
Derp Derp said:
You/they are in fantasy land. Romney is down 253 to 170 in the electoral counts. Romney has a loooong way to go to even things up.
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actually it's you that is in fantasy land. Most political pundits at this point realize it's going to be a very close race. Being at 250 means absolutely nothing if the last 20 you are going to have to fight for tooth and nail
 
KingofOwls said:
actually it's you that is in fantasy land. Most political pundits at this point realize it's going to be a very close race. Being at 250 means absolutely nothing if the last 20 you are going to have to fight for tooth and nail
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Not to mention the fact that some of the 253 may slip away. Romney's numbers have been improving since the Rep cat fight ended.
 
Superfreak said:
Not to mention the fact that some of the 253 may slip away. Romney's numbers have been improving since the Rep cat fight ended.
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the only reason to pretend Obama has 253 at this point is that he won them in 08 and nobody has yet shown they WON'T vote for him again..........
 
Darla said:
Hmmm...I'm starting to think that if Obama wins it's actually Grind who will cry and leave the country.
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actually I have been thinking of moving to panama or costa rica. I need an adventure. But that has nothing to do with obama.
 
KingofOwls said:
actually it's you that is in fantasy land. Most political pundits at this point realize it's going to be a very close race. Being at 250 means absolutely nothing if the last 20 you are going to have to fight for tooth and nail
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Except that they are both in that boat and the pundits be damned. The statistical probabiliies of Obama winning re-election are significantly in his favor. The laws of probabilites at this point would give 4 to 5 of those swing States to Obama....meaning he wins the electoral college. So don't shit yourself Romney is behind the 8 ball and significantly so. A major swing in public sentiment could occurr, it happened in 88 after the GOP convention, but that was an outlier and the odds of that happening again are slim. I'll stick to my guns, it will take a major event like the Banking crises of 08 or a Katrina type disaster handled poorly or complete gaf like Carter & Dukakis debate performances.

The Dukakis gaf was an amazing event. He was leading in the polls by nearly 20 points until he was asked the infamous question about "If you're wife had been rapped"......his lame ass response cost him the Presidency. I know I was undecided before the debate and was wholly in the Bush camp after the debate. That should be a study on what not to say during a debate. His terrible debate performance can only be magnifed by the fact that Bush Senior was a horrific debator himself.
 
christiefan915 said:
The thing with PA is that you have all those in the middle of the state, actually the biggest part of the state, who cling to their guns and religion :) but east and west usually goes solidly for the Dem candidate, and they have the numbers.
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Rural verses urban?
 
Superfreak said:
actually it is based on current polling in the 'swing states' and then the safe states are just assumed for both.
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Exactly and the polling there is fairly accurate. With Romney having to make nearly a clean sweep of the 9 or 10 siwng states the statistical probabilities of his winning are against him at this time.

Who knows....stranger things have happened. I'll never forget the spectacular implosion of the Dukakis campaign in 88.
 
Derp Derp said:
Except that they are both in that boat and the pundits be damned. The statistical probabiliies of Obama winning re-election are significantly in his favor. The laws of probabilites at this point would give 4 to 5 of those swing States to Obama....meaning he wins the electoral college. So don't shit yourself Romney is behind the 8 ball and significantly so. A major swing in public sentiment could occurr, it happened in 88 after the GOP convention, but that was an outlier and the odds of that happening again are slim. I'll stick to my guns, it will take a major event like the Banking crises of 08 or a Katrina type disaster handled poorly or complete gaf like Carter & Dukakis debate performances.

The Dukakis gaf was an amazing event. He was leading in the polls by nearly 20 points until he was asked the infamous question about "If you're wife had been rapped"......his lame ass response cost him the Presidency. I know I was undecided before the debate and was wholly in the Bush camp after the debate. That should be a study on what not to say during a debate. His terrible debate performance can only be magnifed by the fact that Bush Senior was a horrific debator himself.
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By all means Mutt... do highlight your statistical probabilities for us. You crack me up. The statistical probability is that Obama loses one of the states that he currently has in his '253' total that you keep referring to. You have noticed that Romney is up in two of the last three polls overall and it gaining ground in MI, WI, OR etc... (you know, states that are in the '253' count).
 
Derp Derp said:
Exactly and the polling there is fairly accurate. With Romney having to make nearly a clean sweep of the 9 or 10 siwng states the statistical probabilities of his winning are against him at this time.

Who knows....stranger things have happened. I'll never forget the spectacular implosion of the Dukakis campaign in 88.
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You again are assuming that none of the states currently in the Obama total don't become swing states. WI and MI will very likely be within the margin of error this year. If the economy worsens from here, it is over for Obama. If it stays the same, he likely wins. It's the economy stupid.
 
Superfreak said:
You again are assuming that none of the states currently in the Obama total don't become swing states. WI and MI will very likely be within the margin of error this year. If the economy worsens from here, it is over for Obama. If it stays the same, he likely wins. It's the economy stupid.
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Wishfull thinking at this stage. If the election were to be held right now Obama would win and this is after nearly 6 months of much air time for Republicans, during the primaries, to savage his record without much in the way of rebuttal. That will be changing soon as the Obama campaign has just started opening up its war chest. Romney has to play some serious catch up or he'll lose and he knows it.
 
the election is not going to be held right now, it's going to be held in 6 months.

your faulty logic is assuming that everything stays exactly static. your other faulty assumption is that romney and obama have equal chances of winning various states. you fail to take into account how money effects things, how momentum effects projections, how demographics effect projections.

Historically, whoever was in the lead in april-may won about 50% of the time when the election came around. People still haven't gotten to know romney. There have been no debates, no massive ad campaigns yet, etc.

The race is just beginning. For you to just treat like electoral politics is a vacuum while isolating every other variable, shows your lack of knowledge in this area.

Opinions and political affiliation are a function of time.
 
Derp Derp said:
Wishfull thinking at this stage. If the election were to be held right now Obama would win and this is after nearly 6 months of much air time for Republicans, during the primaries, to savage his record without much in the way of rebuttal. That will be changing soon as the Obama campaign has just started opening up its war chest. Romney has to play some serious catch up or he'll lose and he knows it.
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LMAO... they were attacking each other more than Obama you dolt. That is why Romney is now coming back a bit. You truly are clueless.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/05/15/us/politics/20120515-polling-docs.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
 
KingofOwls said:
the election is not going to be held right now, it's going to be held in 6 months.

your faulty logic is assuming that everything stays exactly static. your other faulty assumption is that romney and obama have equal chances of winning various states. you fail to take into account how money effects things, how momentum effects projections, how demographics effect projections.

Historically, whoever was in the lead in april-may won about 50% of the time when the election came around. People still haven't gotten to know romney. There have been no debates, no massive ad campaigns yet, etc.

The race is just beginning. For you to just treat like electoral politics is a vacuum while isolating every other variable, shows your lack of knowledge in this area.

Opinions and political affiliation are a function of time.
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He is a mouthbreather from Ohio, you can't really expect him to comprehend the above.
 
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