269-269 Scenarios

KingofOwls said:
A completely irrelevant fact. The election is not held today. It's held at the end of massive spending, campaigning, adbuys, momentum shifts, etc

Electoral politics does not happen in a vacuum. Just because something is X today doesn't mean that it will be be X in 4 months. Sometimes, you can extrapolate data and be very certain of various paradigm shifts on the horizon.

Every poll over the last 2 months basically shows romney gaining in every category. Gaining with independents/moderates. Gaining with women, gaining in swing states.

It's like if two runners are having a marathon, one guy gets an early lead, and then stops dead in his tracks to eat a sandwich. And you are on the sidelines saying "hey, if you stopped the race RIGHT NOW, sandwich guy would win! The guy without the sandwich has to run a lot further!"

Yes, a lot can happen. I do believe that was my original argument, that looking at politics as a vacuum and not taking into account a whole host of variables is going to leave you holding an empty sack.

Electoral politics is a function of time.
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Somebody explain to me why women would support Romney over Obama.
 
christiefan915 said:
Somebody explain to me why women would support Romney over Obama.
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Because Obama has failed thus far with regards to the economy and jobs. That is the number one issue for most people, including women. Intelligent women are not going to fall for the Dems faux 'war on women' strategy.
 
christiefan915 said:
Somebody explain to me why women would support Romney over Obama.
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WOmen is so general. Will black women support Romney over Obama? No. Will Latinas? No. Will single women? No again.

Will white, middle class suburban mom support him over Obama? That is all going to depend. I believe Rosen hurt him with her clumsy comments, only with that particular block of women. THese are the same women btw, who fled Komen over their PP position. So, IMO, they're coming back. The pendulum on them isn't done swinging.
 
Superfreak said:
Because Obama has failed thus far with regards to the economy and jobs. That is the number one issue for most people, including women. Intelligent women are not going to fall for the Dems faux 'war on women' strategy.
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Fuck yea
 
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christiefan915 said:
Somebody explain to me why women would support Romney over Obama.
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you remind me of the woman that responded after nixon won: "how'd he win, none of the people I know voted for him . . "

in any case, romney doesn't have to "win" women, but that doesn't mean he can't pull some away from obama. If romney gets more woman than obama gets men (assuming woman and man vote in equal numbers), then he wins a greater percentage of the population.
 
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