Bachmann wins Iowa

The Dude said:
Iowa is affective at thining the crowed, Pawlenty dropped out.
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Yea...that's about it. You get an idea on who the base likes and you can cull some of the heard. That's about all that the Iowa straw poll is good for.

I do admit, that I was a bit surprised by Romney's low #'s but these type of political events appeal to the extremes anyway, so I'm not THAT surprised. The big question for me is "Will Republicans be dumb enough to nominate a conservative ideologue who doesn't stand a chance in a general election?"
 
Lot's of groups aren't out supporting their candidates the way the Tea Party currently is active. The neocons will show up to vote for whoever promises the most war and protection for Israel. The libertarians will turn out for Paul or Johnson, if he can get things going. The moderates will have their candidate as well... Many people simply aren't participating right now.
 
Threedee said:
Lot's of groups aren't out supporting their candidates the way the Tea Party currently is active. The neocons will show up to vote for whoever promises the most war and protection for Israel. The libertarians will turn out for Paul or Johnson, if he can get things going. The moderates will have their candidate as well... Many people simply aren't participating right now.
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It's just a straw poll. It's not completely inconsequential but I wouldn't read to much into it.
 
Damn Yankee said:
I consider this a huge win for Bachmann. The lame stream media can never again claim her not to be a serious candidate.
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Or maybe it was just a testament to the depth of Bachmann's pocketbook;;;

So, how does the voting work at the Iowa Straw Poll?

Voters cast ballots for their favorite candidates, and they are totalled up and a winner is declared. Any attendee from the state of Iowa is eligible to cast a vote. You don't even need to be a Republican.

The candidates however, spend money to sign up supporters in advance. It's commonplace for campaigns to turn out support by buying tickets for people, and either providing transportation or paying for parking. Yes, that means that the Straw Poll is more of a test of a campaign's organizational strength than of the value of a candidate's ideas. It can be argued that all you've demonstrated, with an Ames win, is that you're good at busing people across Iowa. This sort of criticism is blunted somewhat by the fact that a bus ride does not constitute a binding contract to cast a vote, but let's get real: these campaigns wouldn't be buying free parking and food for people if they weren't more or less certain that it was going to translate into votes.

All this proves is that Bachmann bought more votes than anyone else participating in the Straw Poll.
 
ZappasGuitar said:
Or maybe it was just a testament to the depth of Bachmann's pocketbook;;;

So, how does the voting work at the Iowa Straw Poll?

Voters cast ballots for their favorite candidates, and they are totalled up and a winner is declared. Any attendee from the state of Iowa is eligible to cast a vote. You don't even need to be a Republican.

The candidates however, spend money to sign up supporters in advance. It's commonplace for campaigns to turn out support by buying tickets for people, and either providing transportation or paying for parking. Yes, that means that the Straw Poll is more of a test of a campaign's organizational strength than of the value of a candidate's ideas. It can be argued that all you've demonstrated, with an Ames win, is that you're good at busing people across Iowa. This sort of criticism is blunted somewhat by the fact that a bus ride does not constitute a binding contract to cast a vote, but let's get real: these campaigns wouldn't be buying free parking and food for people if they weren't more or less certain that it was going to translate into votes.

All this proves is that Bachmann bought more votes than anyone else participating in the Straw Poll.
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Do you have any evidence that Bachmann paid for people to vote?
 
You know what is to going to be interesting in the 2012 election is the fight for Florida. From Obamas stand point Florida is the single most important state. Obama could lose the following swing states and still win relection. Va, NC, IN, CO NV, IA and OH.

Based on polling data that's not likely to happen. Obama has double digit polling leads over all the Republican candidates in all of those States except for Romney. Even against Romney the polling data indicates that this is not likely to happen either. I don't have data for Indiana and Iowa but assuming both favor Romney over Obama it wouldn't matter. Here's how Obama is polling against Romney in these States.

Folrida - Obama +5
Ohio - Obama +4
Nevada - Obama +1
Colorado - Obama +7
N. Carolina - Obama +3
Virginia - Obama +4

That's not good news for Romney as it shows winning the election, even with Obama's current low approval ratings, is a big uphill battle and the odds are against him (would be interesting to see what the line in Vegas is). If the election were to occur today and Romney was the Republican candidate, he would lose based on this data.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#
 
Superfreak said:
So, you hiding over here Mott? Yeah, I would be too embarrassed to come back to the other thread if I were you
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Good lord. No wonder no one wants to enter a discussion with you. For one thing. I'm at work, just taking breaks to drop in. For second, go irritate someone else with your repugnant ankle biting. I don't give a fuck.
 
bachmann-newsweek-900.jpg
 
Damn Yankee said:
Where? "It's commonplace"? Are you kidding me? This is your evidence? :)
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I have provided evidence that states how the straw poll is conducted...all you've go to do is provide a quote from anyone within Bachmann's camp stating they didn't pay anyone for their participation in this year's straw poll and you've proved me wrong...
 
Damocles said:
Didn't Ron Paul win it last year? And place second this year? I think the straw poll in Iowa is not indicative of anything at all.
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Except being wrong, they are good at that, and it also tells me if God called them, he isn't very good at choosing candidates!
 
Mott the Hoople said:
You know what is to going to be interesting in the 2012 election is the fight for Florida. From Obamas stand point Florida is the single most important state. Obama could lose the following swing states and still win relection. Va, NC, IN, CO NV, IA and OH.

Based on polling data that's not likely to happen. Obama has double digit polling leads over all the Republican candidates in all of those States except for Romney. Even against Romney the polling data indicates that this is not likely to happen either. I don't have data for Indiana and Iowa but assuming both favor Romney over Obama it wouldn't matter. Here's how Obama is polling against Romney in these States.

Folrida - Obama +5
Ohio - Obama +4
Nevada - Obama +1
Colorado - Obama +7
N. Carolina - Obama +3
Virginia - Obama +4

That's not good news for Romney as it shows winning the election, even with Obama's current low approval ratings, is a big uphill battle and the odds are against him (would be interesting to see what the line in Vegas is). If the election were to occur today and Romney was the Republican candidate, he would lose based on this data.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#
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where are you finding state by state data at RCP?
 
ZappasGuitar said:
I have provided evidence that states how the straw poll is conducted...all you've go to do is provide a quote from anyone within Bachmann's camp stating they didn't pay anyone for their participation in this year's straw poll and you've proved me wrong...
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It's not up to me to prove you wrong. Try again.
 
Damn Yankee said:
It's not up to me to prove you wrong. Try again.
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So far, I've proved my point and you've yet to prove me wrong...you also haven't shown where the straw poll conducted in Iowa that Bachmann just won was conducted in any manner other than the standard method I outlined earlier.

You haven't proved your case and you haven't proved my claims false...you've failed on both counts!

In other words...I've PROVED YOU WRONG! Something you admitted you weren't smart enough to do.

DY, the two-time loser!

EPIC DY FAIL X 2!!

:lol::rofl:
 
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