GOP blocking the Speculation bill
- Thread starter Chapdog
- Start date
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The Almighty
No, it is still retarded, I was simply trying to be a bit nicer.
I have watched every supply and demand update for the past 15 years. Every article I have seen suggests that demand is continuing to outstrip supply. Which is why I asked you for one that shows something to the contrary. Because I would most definitely be interested in seeing something that shows that. It would be cause for a shift in my long term position on oil. (which like many advisors, I use to hedge my clients accounts against the inflationary pressures of high energy prices)
ib1yysguy
Junior Member
I have no problem with more domestic drilling, as long as it doesn't interfere with our national wildlife preserves. Offshore drilling is fine with me. The reason they're pointing to ANWAR is because the oil companies refuse to drill the plots they've already got in the Gulf. You can speculate as to why as well as I can.
Increase domestic production RESPONSIBLY, look for alternatives, fund the effort well and provide incentives, and target market practices that thwart directly supply/demand forces (speculation).
ib1yysguy
Junior Member
I'll search the NPR archives after lunch.
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The Almighty
Some perhaps do. Most are using the futures markets for the benefits of their clients.
You are quite wrong as far as having them work "for you" (so to speak). Speculators made a lot of money in the 1990's betting on lower oil prices... and their speculation caused oil to fall well below fair value.
Just like with stocks, you can make money in EITHER direction.
And there. If we can just make it past the election year, this is exactly what will happen when legislators again begin to make compromises rather than produce "legislation" that is better served as Amendments or that should just be part of a far larger solution.
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The Almighty
To an extent... but it is also the talk of pushing hard for alt energy by the Dems and the talk of (and increasing public support for) increasing domestic supply sources that is also driving it. These are the solutions that will push oil back down.
If you are looking for the quicker fix... strengthen the dollar. Then watch as the speculators and investors reverse their positions.
I don't doubt their long-term impact, but those solutions are a quite a ways off so I doubt the short-term price fluctuations we're seeing have much to do with that.
Strengthening the dollar would have a big impact, but it isn't as easy to do as it is to talk about it.
Whether you believe reigning in speculators would have a short-term impact on price, if you did believe it would, it would be irresponsible not to propose this bill.
cawacko
Well-known member
Look at this citizen, I'm underwriting a deal right now for CALSTRS, that's the California State Teachers Retirement System - or in English the teachers at California public schools. And who do you think they back politically? Yet here we are working on their behalf for their retirement funds. Yet we put money above all else? Yeah, we try to do the best we can on their behalf. Evil us.
uscitizen
Villified User
did I say this was political ? I just do not like the money centered types.
Most of the money centered types do tend to be Republicans though.
cawacko
Well-known member
that's true, all those rich Democrats don't care about money.
Edit: No you made no mention of politics. I referenced it to show who we are working on behalf of.
uscitizen
Villified User
I did say "tend" now Cawacko. go spinning if you want to.
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The Almighty
Again, you cannot reign in speculators... we do not control the world futures markets. It will do little other than drive the business out of the country.
The first two are not necessarily LONG term impacts. They can immediately impact current views of FUTURE pricing. That also will have a downward impact on current SPOT prices.
Yes, it easy to say... "shore up the dollar"... it takes action by the Fed to encourage investment in the dollar. They need to raise interest rates and do so yesterday.
cawacko
Well-known member
I'll agree with you because hippies don't care about money and hippies don't vote Republican.
Damo - One thing I don't understand is how increasing domestic oil production is going to make us less dependent on Middle Eastern oil.
Aside from serving to minimize the impact of supply disruptions on the global market if the Middle Eastern states restrict their output, which would have the same impact on all consumers of oil, I don't see anything that increase domestic production does that would uniquely impact the United States from an energy perspective.
If supply is restricted elsewhere, the global price goes up and American companies will sell to the highest bidder. We won't be uniquely situated to get that oil at a discount.
No?
Aside from serving to minimize the impact of supply disruptions on the global market if the Middle Eastern states restrict their output, which would have the same impact on all consumers of oil, I don't see anything that increase domestic production does that would uniquely impact the United States from an energy perspective.
If supply is restricted elsewhere, the global price goes up and American companies will sell to the highest bidder. We won't be uniquely situated to get that oil at a discount.
No?
Again you can't understand at all what I am talking about, because you prefer to be deliberately obtuse.
We need a national program, like the lunar landing, to get us off the foreign oil.
And yes, we would be uniquely positioned to take advantage of oil that they do not have to deliver elsewhere. You still narrowly and short-sightedly focus solely on price. Your fixation is nearly terminally stupid. Even if it costs more, if we want to avoid future conflicts of this type in the ME, we must begin to get off foreign oil.
If we are going to "fight a war on terrorism" then we need to stop funding both sides of the war.
Good Luck
New member
The question is do they really believe regulating speculation would work, or are they just gaining political points by playing the blame game? Regulating speculators would not work, not only because U.S. speculators would simply move their offices to avoid the regulations, but also because we are already in competition with foreign speculators. Anyone who thinks putting fetters on U.S. speculators would somehow cause foreign speculators to cap their prices is smoking something.
Again, the republicans screwed the pooch when they stopped the alternate energy bill. (There were a few subsidy proposals I did not like, but they could have been ironed out later.)
But in the case of blocking this regulation bill, they are not blocking anything that would have a significant impact short term, (while having the potential to screw us big time if lack of ability to compete in oil futures end up denyng the U.S. the level of imports we need.)
And in the other corner, we have the Democrats who are standing on their no-drilling principles, and in the process denying both the long term effects that would result in greater domestic supply, AND the short term effects it would have on speculation. If speculators anticipate a change in the supply/demand equation in favor of supply, then their bets (ie: speculation) on oil FUTURES (ie future production of oil) will drop, thereby dropping prices. Already shortening demand - and a visible trend to continue to shorten demand (or at least decrease the rate demand was increasing - if that make sense) has changed the equation enough to bring speculative prices down some. IF speculators were to believe a large increase in supply were coming down the pike - even if it is not for 5 years or more, prices would drop further. Remember, it is oil FUTURES that speculators set their eyes on when price bidding, not CURRENT oil production.
Bottom line, BOTH parties are out there gaining points from their constituencies by playing brain dead political "gotcha" games. NEITHER party is supporting the comprehensive, across-the-board package we need of both increased domestic oil supply AND decreased oil demand through development of alternates. It is the COMBINED package that will bring about both short term relief by causing speculators to look at a significant change in the supply/demand equation, AND in the long term by assuring greater self sufficiency in U.S. energy demands.