For now. But surely you realize at this point that Ukraine is losing ground?
Ukraine was winning ground, until the ammo ran out. Then it started very slowly losing ground.
Well, it looks like we can agree that Ukraine not having much ammo is not conducive to Ukraine holding ground.
They are about to get a lot more ammo, [snip]
According to who?
For Russia to capture Odesa, they would need to capture the left side of the Dnieper, cross the river, capture the right side of the river, and push through 200 miles of unfriendly territory, and then capture a city that is not friendly. They were unable to do this when they had a deep into Ukrainian territory. Now that they are not even in contact with their side of the Dnieper River...
And they have shown no talent at crossing rivers.
I do remember them crossing the Dnieper river and holding Kherson for some time before deciding it would be best to withdraw, considering Ukraine's ability to flood the region, which did indeed happen in June 2023.
I believe that Ukraine has 2 options- start working on a negotiated settlement or lose yet more ground, possibly including Odesa.
Putin sees negotiation as certain death for him, so has no intention of doing it.
If that were true, he would never initiated negotiations back near the start of the war, as I've already pointed out with numerous links.
If Biden can win reelection, Ukraine has a very good chance of pushing Russia back further.
I honestly believe that the only way that Russia would be pushed back is with nukes. In which case, it'd become a wasteland, fit for no one, and absolutely no guarantees that those would be the only nukes used. Think about it this way- if Russia had left its nukes in Cuba, do you honestly believe that the U.S. could have been "pushed back" from their demand that they be removed?
If trump wins, Russia has a good chance of advancing.
From what I've seen, I'm not sure that Russia actually wants any more Ukrainian territory. Even MSNBC just published an opinion peace wherein the author suggests that Trump may have the right idea in terms of coming up with a negotiated settlement, even if some parts of it might not be right. Here's an article on the subject published a few hours ago:
Everything that’s wrong — and right — with Trump’s possible plan for Ukraine | MSNBC
Either way, the soonest we will see anyone willing to negotiate is a year or two from now.
As I've already mentioned, I believe that Russia's willing to negotiate terms that I think are fairly reasonable, given what led up to this war. As to Ukraine, that's another matter. You may be right that they're able to hold out all the way to 2025, but I'd say that's probably the extreme upper limit of how long they can drag this war out. I personally wouldn't be surprised if serious diplomacy started a lot sooner than that.
Putin has been open to negotiations from the start.
Well that is not true.
I just posted various articles detailing the peace plan that almost happened in March 2022. Here they are again in case you missed them:
Zelensky Rejects Putin's Demands for Ending War: 'It's an Ultimatum' | Newsweek
Why Ukraine and NATO shouldn’t rush to dismiss Vladimir Putin’s latest peace terms | The Conversation
The Lost Peace? | The Nation