Recession

[Cypress]

.
Recession may not come after all, economists say

-- Economic strength defies forecasts of downturn but risks remain, experts said --

As recession forecasts have grown dire in recent months, they've faced one complication: Strong economic data.

The U.S. showed robust job growth last month, defying expectations of a slowdown and keeping the unemployment rate at a near-historic low of 3.6%. Meanwhile, retail spending, a key indicator of economic health that reflects consumer appetite, rose 1% in June, outpacing gloomier predictions -- even if some of that increase can be attributed to rising prices due to inflation.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/us-economy-avoid-recession-economists/story?id=86449369

 

[ThatOwlWoman]

Gas per gallon is falling, and I've noticed the same with some items at the grocery store as well. I blame Biden. lol

 

[Geeko Sportivo]

I think inflation itself is more to blame for inflation than the pandemic recovery.

OK, that's not funny but, I also think Corporate America has adjusted and increased their prices to a point, that it is causing them more problems in terms of competition, than it does us.

For example; Just look at all that red meat being ignored, left in the meat counters, untouched overnight- NEXT DAY- Giant HAMBURGER Sale EVERYBODY!!

I just drove through McDonalds for breakfast- I WAS THE ONLY ONE IN LINE! That has never happened to me before.

Yes, I believe people are doing without as a protest, as if to say, "No! I refuse to pay that much for that shit"!

Along with pricing us out of the market, they are pricing themselves out of business!

The price of everything is about to come back down wind-falling back to Earth.

 

[cawacko]

Gas per gallon is falling, and I've noticed the same with some items at the grocery store as well. I blame Biden. lol

In an element of irony, gas prices dropping is a good thing - but they are dropping in large part because of fear of recession.

 

[Commander Dutch]

.
Recession may not come after all, economists say

-- Economic strength defies forecasts of downturn but risks remain, experts said --

As recession forecasts have grown dire in recent months, they've faced one complication: Strong economic data.

The U.S. showed robust job growth last month, defying expectations of a slowdown and keeping the unemployment rate at a near-historic low of 3.6%. Meanwhile, retail spending, a key indicator of economic health that reflects consumer appetite, rose 1% in June, outpacing gloomier predictions -- even if some of that increase can be attributed to rising prices due to inflation.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/us-economy-avoid-recession-economists/story?id=86449369

The last recession was harder on the lower educated and their employment. The stock market was back up for most of it which is why those who had jobs prospered well and those who remained unemployed struggled.

Looking at the last and previous economic downturns is a good clue to what the future holds.

This also proves how the US economy leads the world plus, to a slightly lesser extent, how the US economy is affected by global events. In the current case; the pandemic and Putin's war in Ukraine.

Notice how the US economy bottomed out in Q1 2009 then was back up above previous levels a year later. For the poorly educated, they suffered for years after.

https://voxeu.org/article/explaining-global-great-recession

While the recent financial crisis originated in the US, in 2008-09 we witnessed a steep decline in output, consumption and investment that was of similar magnitude in the rest of the world. Figure 1 illustrates this synchronicity by comparing the evolution in the US with other G20 countries.

FWIW, like many here, I've taken a 10% cut in my stock savings and, consequently, have avoided touching it until it comes back up to avoid a double-hit. The good news is that with COVID, supply chain problems and inflation, I don't feel like spending much money. LOL

During the Great Recession I doubled down on my savings which reaped great rewards when the market came back up. Now, I'm fixed income living on SS and my pension. We're fine and thankful in a time when others are hurting badly.

 

[ThatOwlWoman]

In an element of irony, gas prices dropping is a good thing - but they are dropping in large part because of fear of recession.

Demand is down so supplies are up and prices down. The housing market is cooling off somewhat too, thanks to higher interest rates and lower demand.

Why are gas prices going down? Drivers begin to see some relief at the pump

 

[Cypress]

Gas per gallon is falling, and I've noticed the same with some items at the grocery store as well. I blame Biden. lol

High prices for peanut butter, limited selection of cat food were annoying, but nothing remotely close to the massive economic depression Trump predicted if Biden won.

My gasoline is basically paid off for the next four months, thanks to Governor Newsome's stimulus rebates.

 

[ThatOwlWoman]

During the Great Recession I doubled down on my savings which reaped great rewards when the market came back up. Now, I'm fixed income living on SS and my pension. We're fine and thankful in a time when others are hurting badly.

We're doing well too but families with kids are struggling. It's a good time to donate to your local food pantries if you're lucky and/or wise enough to have extra.

 

[dukkha]

In an element of irony, gas prices dropping is a good thing - but they are dropping in large part because of fear of recession.

you sure about that?*asking* I thought they were dropping due to supply and demand?

 

[Geeko Sportivo]

In an element of irony, gas prices dropping is a good thing - but they are dropping in large part because of fear of recession.

The Gasoline Manufacturers have increased production catching up to the demand. They are not totally there yet, but gaining hugely!

 

[ThatOwlWoman]

High prices for peanut butter, limited selection of cat food were annoying, but nothing remotely close to the massive economic depression Trump predicted if Biden won.

My gasoline is basically paid off for the next four months, thanks to Governor Newsome's stimulus rebates.

Excellent. Our state also has a large budget surplus. The governor wants to give working families a $500 rebate and/or tax cuts but so far the contemptible (R)s are stalling it. She's up for re-election this fall, that's why.

Michigan, we have a budget deal. But no tax relief yet, despite surplus

 

[dukkha]

Gasoline demand weakness against historical seasonal strength is pressing retail prices lower,” Brian Milne, analyst at DTN, told MarketWatch in an email.

The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that gasoline inventories rose 3.5 million barrels last week. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights had looked for a rise of 400,000 barrels.

“Government data show gasoline consumption consistently below year ago since early June, and the difference has widened. For the four weeks through mid-July, gasoline consumption is 720,000 barrels a day, or 7.6%, less than year ago,” Milne said.

Refiners, who had previously stepped up production runs in response to record crack spreads — the difference between the price of a barrel of crude and the products that can be refined from it — have pulled back in the face of stalling demand in recent weeks.

looks like global cool down in demand

 

[cawacko]

you sure about that?*asking* I thought they were dropping due to supply and demand?

I’ll even give CNN as the source. When people forsee a downtown they adjust financially. (Unless you have F U money and don’t care.)


https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/22/economy/gas-prices-oil-recession-fears/index.html

 

[Commander Dutch]

We're doing well too but families with kids are struggling. It's a good time to donate to your local food pantries if you're lucky and/or wise enough to have extra.

Agreed. Food pantries are a great way to help.

 

[Commander Dutch]

More on the Great Recession as a guide to future economic issues:

Note employment and unemployment lines crossed in late 2008 and didn't cross again until 2018
https://irle.berkeley.edu/the-post-recession-labor-market-an-incomplete-recovery/
The Post-Recession Labor Market: An Incomplete Recovery

 

[Celticguy]

Demand is down so supplies are up and prices down. The housing market is cooling off somewhat too, thanks to higher interest rates and lower demand.

Why are gas prices going down? Drivers begin to see some relief at the pump

gas prices edging down because oil prices are edging down on perceived lower demand down the road a little due to recession caused lower demand. thats helpful but they are still very high and will stay that way as Biden killed off domestic production.

 

[Cypress]

The last recession was harder on the lower educated and their employment. The stock market was back up for most of it which is why those who had jobs prospered well and those who remained unemployed struggled.

Looking at the last and previous economic downturns is a good clue to what the future holds.

This also proves how the US economy leads the world plus, to a slightly lesser extent, how the US economy is affected by global events. In the current case; the pandemic and Putin's war in Ukraine.

Notice how the US economy bottomed out in Q1 2009 then was back up above previous levels a year later. For the poorly educated, they suffered for years after.

https://voxeu.org/article/explaining-global-great-recession



FWIW, like many here, I've taken a 10% cut in my stock savings and, consequently, have avoided touching it until it comes back up to avoid a double-hit. The good news is that with COVID, supply chain problems and inflation, I don't feel like spending much money. LOL

During the Great Recession I doubled down on my savings which reaped great rewards when the market came back up. Now, I'm fixed income living on SS and my pension. We're fine and thankful in a time when others are hurting badly.

I have always lived frugally, modestly, and with minimal debt. I am fortunate to never have been truly adversely effected by any economic downturn. The one exception maybe was the Reagan recession in 1982; his budget massively cut Pell grants for college, and I had to drop out of school for a few semesters.

The Bush recession in 2008 was the worst one in my life. We went right to the precipice of another Great Depression. It took a long time for some people to recover.

 

[Commander Dutch]

 

[Commander Dutch]

I have always lived frugally, modestly, and with minimal debt. I am fortunate to never have been truly adversely effected by any economic downturn. The one exception maybe was the Reagan recession in 1982; his budget massively cut Pell grants for college, and I had to drop out of school for a few semesters.

The Bush recession in 2008 was the worst one in my life. It took a long time for some people to recover.

Except for my wild 20s, so have I. It's the smart way to go: Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

 

[dukkha]

the problem is inflation and the fed interest rates havent really hit yet (WTF are they waiting for?)
and that "soft landing" is a tough thing to do. Greenspan did it in '94 but historically a recession is how to break the back of recession

Housing is "cooling down" from it's torrid climb, consumer spending is steady. I think 2nd quarter GDP numbers come out next week?