Recession

ThatOwlWoman said:
Gas per gallon is falling, and I've noticed the same with some items at the grocery store as well. I blame Biden. lol

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Gas always goes down after July the 4th travel. I blame that. Biden blames Putin for gas going up and said he couldn't do anything about it but now he takes credit when it goes down. :tardthoughts:
 
ThatOwlWoman said:
Excellent. Our state also has a large budget surplus. The governor wants to give working families a $500 rebate and/or tax cuts but so far the contemptible (R)s are stalling it. She's up for re-election this fall, that's why.

Michigan, we have a budget deal. But no tax relief yet, despite surplus
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We have Democratic supermajorities across state government here. California used to be a fiscal basket case, but oddly enough once we had consistent Democratic supermajorities we started having budget surpluses and reasonably good fiscal management compared to the Schwarzenegger years
 
dukkha said:
the problem is inflation and the fed interest rates havent really hit yet (WTF are they waiting for?)
and that "soft landing" is a tough thing to do. Greenspan did it in '94 but historically a recession is how to break the back of recession

Housing is "cooling down" from it's torrid climb, consumer spending is steady. I think 2nd quarter GDP numbers come out next week?
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I don't discount or dismiss the risk of an economic downturn
 
Cypress said:
I don't discount or dismiss the risk of an economic downturn
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No intelligent, educated or sane person should. Many only see what they want to see...mostly the poorly educated, stupid and/or insane.
The various responses on this thread help identify who is who. :)

So far, like with COVID and the Great Recession, the Americans suffering the worst are the poorly educated, unskilled or low skilled workers. The hands on factory workers. Those who could work from home did and were fine. In fact, I think COVID has forced that inevitable change to happen faster.

It's the information age; almost everyone has Wifi or access to a library with computers. Our nation should be investing more in online training for people to help themselves through online education.

Examples of jobs online, some require more training than others: https://www.aarp.org/work/job-search/work-from-home-jobs/
18 Jobs You Can Do Without Leaving the House
Work-from-home positions hold appeal to older workers during the pandemic and beyond
1. Teacher

2. Telehealth Nurse

3. Transcriptionist

4. Consultant

5. Bookkeeper

6. Virtual Assistant

7. Focus Group Participant

8. Translator

9. Mock Juror

10. Writer

11. Customer Service Representative

12. SEO Specialist

13. Claims Investigator

14. Speech Language Pathologist

15. Fundraising Coordinator

16. School Psychologist

17. Sales Agent

18. Software Engineer
 
ThatOwlWoman said:
Gas per gallon is falling, and I've noticed the same with some items at the grocery store as well. I blame Biden. lol

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Gas always goes down after July the 4th travel. I blame that.

The national average for unleaded gasoline was $4.467 per gallon Wednesday; prices have steadily declined from a high of $5.01 nationally on June 14, according to AAA. Weekly data on gasoline demand from the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, suggests drivers have cut back on gasoline use, and tight supplies are improving.

“I spoke to three big chain retailers. … They all said of demand in the last three weeks, we’re down 5% or 6% from the same weeks last year,” said Tom Kloza, head of global energy research at OPIS.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/20/gas...summer-peak-and-could-be-headed-below-4-.html
 
dukkha said:
im looking at it. it talks about traders, but also says there has been a pullback in consumer demand?
Q2 GDP report next week
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The pullback in consumer demand is the fear of recession. With inflation (higher costs) and recession fears consumers change their habits. It makes total sense. You go out less, you travel less etc. Thus the irony that was referenced. Lower gas prices is a good thing (well at least to those for whom environmental concerns aren’t number one on the list) but the reason for them right now isn’t
 
cawacko said:
The pullback in consumer demand is the fear of recession. With inflation (higher costs) and recession fears consumers change their habits. It makes total sense. You go out less, you travel less etc. Thus the irony that was referenced. Lower gas prices is a good thing (we’ll at least to those for whom environmental concerns aren’t number one on the list) but the reason for them right now isn’t
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i guess, or inflation in other areas is simply reducing household ability to buy gas now, so they are puling back..who knows?
 
My issue with the article in the OP is the claims of a strong labor market and quoting the 3.6% unemployment rate. The labor market has been good but it makes no reference that we just hit an 8 month high in unemployment claims. That alone doesn’t mean the job market is going to hell but not exactly a data point used to proclaim strong economic data. And then they use the retail sale numbers. Retail sales actually dropped but due to inflation the numbers rose. Again, you’d rather we’ll see increased volume.

Hopefully these folks proclaiming we won’t have a recession are right but the data used in the article doesn’t make a strong case.
 
dukkha said:
i guess, or inflation in other areas is simply reducing household ability to buy gas now, so they are puling back..who knows?
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That’s all tied together (inflation causing people to pull back on their spending.)
 
Cypress said:
We have Democratic supermajorities across state government here. California used to be a fiscal basket case, but oddly enough once we had consistent Democratic supermajorities we started having budget surpluses and reasonably good fiscal management compared to the Schwarzenegger years
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The economist predict a deficit in California next year.

However, the state also faces an operating deficit beginning in 2021-22 and throughout the outlook period, growing to $17 billion by 2024-25.
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https://lao.ca.gov/Budget?year=2021&subjectArea=outlook
 
Celticguy said:
gas prices edging down because oil prices are edging down on perceived lower demand down the road a little due to recession caused lower demand. thats helpful but they are still very high and will stay that way as Biden killed off domestic production.
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Ah, the typical RWNJ talking points, I see. Funny how you guys constantly claim that "Biden killed domestic production," but can produce not a single scintilla of evidence proving that false assertion. Hint: ANWR oil, if any, is at least a decade away from the refinery. The Keystone was for Canada's tar sands oil, not for domestic U.S. use. The oil companies are sitting on millions of dollars worth of leases they are not exploiting.

Give it a rest.
 
ThatOwlWoman said:
Ah, the typical RWNJ talking points, I see. Funny how you guys constantly claim that "Biden killed domestic production," but can produce not a single scintilla of evidence proving that false assertion. Hint: ANWR oil, if any, is at least a decade away from the refinery. The Keystone was for Canada's tar sands oil, not for domestic U.S. use. The oil companies are sitting on millions of dollars worth of leases they are not exploiting.

Give it a rest.
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When I worked in the oil and gas exploration division of Exxon, we weren't all that excited about the economic potential of ANWR oil.
 
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