The Real Reason the Democrats Will Lose in November

Epicurus

Epicurus

Reasonable
Awareness of Iraq War Fatalities Plummets

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/762/political-knowledge-update

Public awareness of the number of American military fatalities in Iraq has declined sharply since last August. Today, just 28% of adults are able to say that approximately 4,000 Americans have died in the Iraq war. As of March 10, the Department of Defense had confirmed the deaths of 3,974 U.S. military personnel in Iraq.

In August 2007, 54% correctly identified the fatality level at that time (about 3,500 deaths). In previous polls going back to the spring of 2004, about half of respondents could correctly estimate the number of U.S. fatalities around the time of the survey.

In the current poll, more respondents underestimated than overestimated the number of fatalities. A plurality of 35% said that there have been about 3,000 troop deaths, and another 11% said there have been 2,000 deaths. Just under a quarter (23%) said the number of fatalities is closer to 5,000.

Along with declining interest in news about Iraq, a Pew poll last month found a significant increase in the number of Americans who believe that military progress is being made in Iraq. However, the public remains divided about when to remove troops and a majority continues to say that the war was the wrong decision. See Obama Has The Lead, But Potential Problems Too, February 28, 2008.


Awareness of the number of troop deaths has declined substantially among every demographic group, including the well-educated. College graduates in August were somewhat more likely than other respondents to correctly identify the level of troop deaths (60% correct, vs. 51% for those with some college experience and 47% for those with no college experience). Now, college graduates are no more likely than other groups to know the number of deaths. The proportion of Republicans who can correctly identify the number of troop deaths fell by half between August and the current poll (down 27 points from 53% to 26%). The same is true of independents (down 30 points from 59% to 29%).
 
First of all, this is disgusting. Second of all, why do you think this might be Epi? Do you think it happened by accident? A serious question.

And just as a footnote, say you lost someone you loved very much in Iraq. How much would you want to kill one of these bastards? Seriously, to me, it’s amazing we haven’t seen someone on a rampage yet. But I think we will see it. Maybe from a veteran who is unable to adjust, you know, after FOUR FREAKING TOURS, and gets fed up with the constant babbling of his neighbors about how fast Jennifer Lopez lost her baby fat.
 
It appears that the decline in media coverage and the facade-excuse of the "surge" has been enough to satisfy the more ignorant demographics that Iraq is going well. This is unacceptable if we are to avoid a President McCain.

For months myself and others have been tripping over ourselves to say that McCain will get creamed in a general election. I should have predicated that prediction on Iraq remaining a top news story and public awareness of casualties remaining high.

The only thing McCain has to run on is War. If the War is going well or just not even too badly, a McCain victory is a grim possibility. Hopefully media coverage of the War will increase before November, but it is a slim hope.

Wake the fuck up, America.
 
Maybe those black people who you think just want a 40 and some cigs from their government are not so stupid as you think then huh?
 
Epicurus said:
It appears that the decline in media coverage and the facade-excuse of the "surge" has been enough to satisfy the more ignorant demographics that Iraq is going well. This is unacceptable if we are to avoid a President McCain.

For months myself and others have been tripping over ourselves to say that McCain will get creamed in a general election. I should have predicated that prediction on Iraq remaining a top news story and public awareness of casualties remaining high.

The only thing McCain has to run on is War. If the War is going well or just not even too badly, a McCain victory is a grim possibility. Hopefully media coverage of the War will increase before November, but it is a slim hope.

Wake the fuck up, America.
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I agree.
 
Purely as a matter of political strategy, "the Surge" was a fucking masterpiece.

Basically it was their way of saying:

"Sit down and shut the fuck up, because we're going to keep doing exactly what we've been doing in Iraq just with 30,000 more of your friends and brothers."

And the public bought it hook line and sinker. It doesn't matter whether casualties have gone down under the Surge. It's all been a massive distraction effort.
 
I think there is something much different about those numbers, and conclusions can be made in the opposite direction as to why the Dems WILL win in November.

The awareness has dropped because people are just tired of hearing about it. I pay no attention to the numbers for this reason. I don't even argue about the war really, simply because it disgusts me.
 
DigitalDave said:
I think there is something much different about those numbers, and conclusions can be made in the opposite direction as to why the Dems WILL win in November.

The awareness has dropped because people are just tired of hearing about it. I pay no attention to the numbers for this reason. I don't even argue about the war really, simply because it disgusts me.
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My point though is that this is how Bush won a second term. The war wasn't going absolutely horribly at the time and he capitalized on it and took another 4 years.

It seems set to happen again with McCain unless awareness of casualties increases.

Did you see those fucking numbers?

Even the supposedly politically-informed seem to be out of the loop.
 
Epicurus said:
My point though is that this is how Bush won a second term. The war wasn't going absolutely horribly at the time and he capitalized on it and took another 4 years.

It seems set to happen again with McCain unless awareness of casualties increases.

Did you see those fucking numbers?

Even the supposedly politically-informed seem to be out of the loop.
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Yeah, I saw the numbers. The thing is, I'm not surprised by the amount of deaths, not surprised people don't know the actual numbers, not surprised the media has reduced coverage on it. I haven't listened to a damn thing that his come out of Bush's mouth, and if the media reported it, I'd change the channel. I don't want to get angry anymore. I'm not going to pat myself on the back for being right about anything so I have no desire to confirm my beliefs. I'd much rather just let these idiots babble about how great the war is going and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'd rather not be spoon fed what I should think about the war. I had my oppinion, and it ain't changing.
 
the Iraq war will not be a big issue by NOv unless something else big happens. It is sad but true.
The big issue in Nov will be the economy and such.
 
uscitizen said:
the Iraq war will not be a big issue by NOv unless something else big happens. It is sad but true.
The big issue in Nov will be the economy and such.
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If it's the economy, McCain can't win. If casualities rise in Iraq to the point they can’t be kept out of the news, McCain can’t win. It’s for this reason that the “temporary surge” has been made permanent. Which by the way is actually called a fucking escalation, something our media still have not caught onto.

If the subject is terrorism and Americans perceive themselves or this country to be vulnerable, McCain can win.

Therefore, and since it is the Republican noise machine who set the narrative in this country and their amen chorus and note takers in the media who amplify it, I foresee this will be an election about national security. Expect a lot of scares, close calls, and personally I wouldn’t put it past them – worse.
 
Darla said:
If it's the economy, McCain can't win. If casualities rise in Iraq to the point they can’t be kept out of the news, McCain can’t win. It’s for this reason that the “temporary surge” has been made permanent. Which by the way is actually called a fucking escalation, something our media still have not caught onto.

If the subject is terrorism and Americans perceive themselves or this country to be vulnerable, McCain can win.

Therefore, and since it is the Republican noise machine who set the narrative in this country and their amen chorus and note takers in the media who amplify it, I foresee this will be an election about national security. Expect a lot of scares, close calls, and personally I wouldn’t put it past them – worse.
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call me a koolaid drinker if you want but i still suspect that Bush will have a mid to late summer suprise of some sort to help the Republican fear mongers out. Likely no more than 60 days prior to the election so the stupit masses do not have time to catch on to what is really going on.
 
uscitizen said:
call me a koolaid drinker if you want but i still suspect that Bush will have a mid to late summer suprise of some sort to help the Republican fear mongers out. Likely no more than 60 days prior to the election so the stupit masses do not have time to catch on to what is really going on.
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I LMAO at your comment about closet doors popping open, the closer to the election we got.


Yes, indeedy. Closet doors are flying open. ;-)
 
Cypress said:
I LMAO at your comment about closet doors popping open, the closer to the election we got.


Yes, indeedy. Closet doors are flying open. ;-)
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It was inevitable Cypress. Most people are so predictable in their politics.

But it does not make most of them happy to realize they are so predictable and not as independent thinking as they liked to think they are. So naturally they lash out at those who expose their predictability.
 
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Darla said:
If it's the economy, McCain can't win. If casualities rise in Iraq to the point they can’t be kept out of the news, McCain can’t win. It’s for this reason that the “temporary surge” has been made permanent. Which by the way is actually called a fucking escalation, something our media still have not caught onto.

If the subject is terrorism and Americans perceive themselves or this country to be vulnerable, McCain can win.

Therefore, and since it is the Republican noise machine who set the narrative in this country and their amen chorus and note takers in the media who amplify it, I foresee this will be an election about national security. Expect a lot of scares, close calls, and personally I wouldn’t put it past them – worse.
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Perfectly said.

John "Economics isn't something I've studied as well as I should" McCain will not win if the talk is on Recession.
 
We did elect Mr. I don't like to read or think about decisions much twice though....
fearmongering trumps thinking.
 
The way I see it this cuts both ways. First, people that view the war as a disaster want to get out, regardless. Second, some people view the war as a disaster but want to remain until security is restored and then we can leave. Well, assuming the surge is a success, what are we waiting for? Let's get the f out.

Basically, people want to get the f out wither because they view the war as a failure or the surge a success. McCain doesn't want to leave at all, only the Democrats do.
 
I just read a new Zogby poll that has both Dems down by about 6-7 points to McCain.

It's interesting, though; on every one of these polls that they post - which are kind of meaningless at this point - he caps out at around 45-46%.

I just don't see it. McCain against Obama is such a contrast, and it will be so visible when they're next to each other in the fall debates. Not just age, but rhetoric; McCain will not be able to escape the past, and the past is exactly what most voters want to break from. He has no ideas for the economy, and few domestic policy initiatives in general. He won't do a thing on healthcare & education; he won't change the war; he has no vision for energy or the environment. It will be "experience" vs. "change" all over again, and it didn't work for Hillary.

He also has talk radio & many conservatives saying they won't vote for him; that doesn't exactly rally the base.

Anything could happen, and it will probably be a close election, but man, is it hard to imagine him beating Obama at this point.
 
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