The sky is falling

you aren't saying shit freak
18 months is debateable
IF we have a recession in the first half I will claim ownage.
If we grow at 2% plus it'll be interesting to see if you turn over a new leaf and man up.
 
12-18months seems long. when i was in school i was taught 9months. but i think its even quicker now in some financial sectors such as mortgage and credit..
 
Topspin said:
you aren't saying shit freak
18 months is debateable
IF we have a recession in the first half I will claim ownage.
If we grow at 2% plus it'll be interesting to see if you turn over a new leaf and man up.
Click to expand...

1) I said 12-18 months and that has been the trend in the past

2) I said the recession would occur in 2008 and have not wavered from that point. Can we slip around it? Yes, which is why I said the odds were 70% and not 100% As for first half of the year, it is more likely that we will see the downturn begin somewhere around April-June time frame as the rate resets occuring this month will probably not effect foreclosures until a few months after the resets.

3) I will be more than happy to admit I am wrong if we can get 2% or higher growth this year.

Fed just cut 50bps on both rates.
 
Chapdog said:
12-18months seems long. when i was in school i was taught 9months. but i think its even quicker now in some financial sectors such as mortgage and credit..
Click to expand...

Without question, some sectors will respond quicker. It is the overall economy I am referring to.
 
Cool on the 50
Freak, your the most knowledgable poster on economics prob by far.
I really respect Chapman's knowledge and financial accomplishments at his young age. He maybe a close second based on his near millionaire status in his 30's.
Who's the pension fund manager is it Jarrod?
 
Topspin said:
Cool on the 50
Freak, your the most knowledgable poster on economics prob by far.
I really respect Chapman's knowledge and financial accomplishments at his young age. He maybe a close second based on his near millionaire status in his 30's.
Who's the pension fund manager is it Jarrod?
Click to expand...

Jarod is a lawyer.

I believe Cawacko works with pension investments.
 
yeah cawacko's gotta be in the top 3 or 4. I'm glad he joined I've already seen a bunch of smart business posts from him.
 
Darla said:
Cawacko is an economic dummy from way back. And he is no pension fund manager.

But don't tell him I said this. He won't see it, he hasn't been around much.

It's true though.
Click to expand...

I said he works with pension funds investments.... not that he was the manager.... and I do believe that is exactly what he does. If I remember correctly he deals with commerical real estate investments for pension funds.
 
Superfreak said:
I said he works with pension funds investments.... not that he was the manager.... and I do believe that is exactly what he does. If I remember correctly he deals with commerical real estate investments for pension funds.
Click to expand...

I thought he sold commercial real estate? Well, whatever, he ain’t no rocket scientist. He is a Cato parrot. I mean, he’s a great guy, and if I was ever in San Francisco I’d totally hang out with him, but…this other stuff is hysterical.
 
I've got thousands, put someone like you spends more time on the sale in the newspapers while I'm in the Wall Street Journal.
 
Darla said:
I thought he sold commercial real estate? Well, whatever, he ain’t no rocket scientist. He is a Cato parrot. I mean, he’s a great guy, and if I was ever in San Francisco I’d totally hang out with him, but…this other stuff is hysterical.
Click to expand...

He does buy and sell commerical real estate. But I believe the firm he works for does so on behalf of pension funds.

More foundations and pensions are investing into commerical real estate and firms like the one he works for manage the real estate portions of their investments.
 
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