Y2K recession

Damocles said:
uscit.. Really, it isn't hard to forecast a recession in a market that is cyclical. If you forecast it long enough you will always be right.
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butt i am not forcasting just a Recession, I am forecasting a big Recession.
I am not talking a market correction or anything like that.
 
I'm sure we both hope your wrong.
Latest numbers today are again good. Income up, spending way up. This pushes recession chances further out and lowers them somewhat.
 
uscitizen said:
butt i am not forcasting just a Recession, I am forecasting a big Recession.
I am not talking a market correction or anything like that.
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Still. Even with that, if you forecast it for year after year, at some point you will be right.
 
funny how no numbers or reasoning is attached.
Just a sky is falling.... ahhh cause I read an article saying housing will destroy us.
That from a land barron
 
Topspin said:
"Freak I'm going to assume your a single 30 something."

Yes, moron, as I stated before I am 36... and yes, I am single. I see we are going back to your complete insecurity with being alone. Don't worry, I am sure your wife can buy you a nightlight.

As yesterday after work I spent a great day with my much, much better half.

Good for you. What does this have to do with your ducking any actual discussion of economics?

"Now you didn't get your your head blown up enough and are coming back for more."

Please toppy, you have yet to discuss anything other than Xmas season retail sales or third quarter GDP. Care to try something that looks FORWARD???

"First, talk about dodging. Please explain pumping stocks to little old ladies when at the same time you predict 70% chance of recession. BURN"

My God you are pathetic.

"Second you have now fully joined USGED, Deshtard and the recessionista's. Sounds like a band doesn't it. Your just a recessionista.
OK seriously, I have been fighting off these recessionista's for two years quite succesfully I might add. NOw you join in with your crawfish special. 70% chance next year, with a dump taken all over this years good numbers."

Again moron. All numbers this year are for... wait for it.... THIS year. Now try to address all of the inflationary concerns I listed above. Can you handle that or are you going to continue acting like a moron?

Lets see, what do smart investors do. BUY THE ASSETS THAT ARE INFLATING. LOFL
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Again you are confusing the market with the economy. Yes, some sectors will do well. Thanks for that captain obvious. Now please tell us all what will happen to the remaining sectors and the employees/company's within those sectors. Something that you have ducked for three threads now.
 
Topspin said:
funny how no numbers or reasoning is attached.
Just a sky is falling.... ahhh cause I read an article saying housing will destroy us.
That from a land barron
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Funny how you resort to childish antics every time someone DOES bring up the reasons they think we will enter a recession next year.
 
welcome back freak
your ducking not me.
The whole jist of our debate is recession 08 yes/no
your crawfishing into something you might win cause you were soundly crushed on the main issue.
Pleae enlighten us on how the latest data yet AGAIN shows a healthy economy confirms your 70% chance of recession.
 
Topspin said:
welcome back freak
your ducking not me.
The whole jist of our debate is recession 08 yes/no
your crawfishing into something you might win cause you were soundly crushed on the main issue.
Pleae enlighten us on how the latest data yet AGAIN shows a healthy economy confirms your 70% chance of recession.
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The whole debate is the recession chances in 2008. That is the first thing that you have gotten right. Exactly HOW is it that you crushed me toppy? By calling me.... SINGLE?

AGAIN, since you are so moronic you can't seem to grasp this.... CURRENT numbers do not reflect the future. They reflect the past.

For the FINAL time... CAN YOU ADDRESS THE FOLLOWING AND HOW THEY WILL AFFECT THE FUTURE.... ie 2008.....

1) Higher energy costs.... which reduce consumer spending in other areas
2) Higher food costs.... which also reduce consumer spending in other areas
3) Declining dollar.... which decreases purchasing power and further enhances the rise in energy/food/commodities/basic materials
4) The always higher healthcare costs
5) For those families with kids in college... add in the rising costs of education

COUPLE THE ABOVE with the continuing credit crunch and we have big problems. With regards to the credit crunch, please explain the following which you ducked yesterday....

1) If as you say the mortgage problem is better because of the fed cuts... please explain why it is that the national average for the 1,3 and 5-year ARMs are ALL ABOVE the average for the 15 yr fixed. Can you explain that to us toppy..... oh MBA guru genius?

2) Why do you hype the retail sales of xmas numbers, yet fail to address the negative numbers? Like say.... the fact that year-over-year foreclosures were up 68% in November. Again, a backward looking number, but since you are obsessed with CURRENT numbers being reported, I would like to know why you ignore this one.
 
Alright I get to crush you again.
higher cost for all those things means higher GDP. LOFL
Right now wait for this for a couple weeks you keep childishly saying backward looking numbers. And a couple weeks henceforth the numbers come out big again. Your like USC you keep predicting and eventually you'll be right.
How far in 2008 will you let increasing income numbers pass before it removes the recession call. October???
Latest income up .4% spending up 1.1%
 
If it's bad I'll be the first to say you were right and I was wrong. I promise!!!
I don't see it, but I do see where your coming from. We do have serious problems.
 
Topspin said:
funny how no numbers or reasoning is attached.
Just a sky is falling.... ahhh cause I read an article saying housing will destroy us.
That from a land barron
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Male Bovine Excrement!
My prediction is based on many things not just the housing problem, I was predicting a recession while the housing market was still booming and you know that you twerp.
 
Topspin said:
Alright I get to crush you again.
higher cost for all those things means higher GDP. LOFL
Right now wait for this for a couple weeks you keep childishly saying backward looking numbers. And a couple weeks henceforth the numbers come out big again. Your like USC you keep predicting and eventually you'll be right.
How far in 2008 will you let increasing income numbers pass before it removes the recession call. October???
Latest income up .4% spending up 1.1%
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So again, you are going to refuse to answer. Understood. Please post a link to the increase in income and spending you are quoting.

If I predict that we will have a recession in 2008... that is not the same as every year stating a recession is coming. I have been consistent in my assessment. Just because I began expressing concern of a recession in 2008 in June doesn't mean I have ever stated that it would be immediate or this year.

As I have said, I think the chances of recession are about 70%.... that means toppy that I do believe there is a 30% chance we can avoid it. Which means I leave open the possibility that we will not have one. But as I mentioned MBA guru master.... there are a LOT of pressures against the economy (that you fail yet again to address) that suggest otherwise.
 
uscitizen said:
Umm I only started forecasting it a couple of years ago. How often do we have bad recessions/depressions ?
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Again, it is cyclical. It doesn't matter when you start predicting it, only that you are vague enough and continue to do so. At some point you will be right because of the cyclical nature of the markets and the economy.
 
I agree there are pressure on the economy I never said we didn't have issues. As you will recall I said 30 to 40% chance of recession.
But continually rising incomes and consumer spending in my estimation and most economists will stave off recession.
Inceased energy spending is blown way out of porportion it's way lower as a % of the family budget. I'll go with 2% GDP for the 4th qtr and an average of 2.2 for all of next year.
 
the goal of the fed stated over and over and over again is to not let us fall into a quick 3quarter recession and instead give it soft landing more like couple years of slow growth. Personally id rather have a quick hit recession.
 
Damocles said:
Again, it is cyclical. It doesn't matter when you start predicting it, only that you are vague enough and continue to do so. At some point you will be right because of the cyclical nature of the markets and the economy.
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You still do not get it do ya ? This one will not be your typical cyclical nature of the economy thing....
 
Damocles said:
Look. Generally I agree with you on this one. But two years of 'prediction' is fixing the books a bit.
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So If I see it coming before the experts do it is fixing the books ? Yeah like I can have any influence on the outcome .

the economy is a big complex beast and it has been pumped up for years by the war, cheap chinese Imports, etc
It does not change direction overnight.
err well it will when thie realization sets in though, and the downward spiral will begin.

I predicted how iraq would turn out up to now and was right.
I predicted that most bush voters would be sorry, right on again.

time will tell.
 
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