US COVID-19 deaths by Election Day

[Dutch Uncle]

2.5 million deaths occur in the US every year.

True enough on normal years. Are you saying it will be the same this year? Higher? Lower? Are you going to pussy out again and not say? If the numbers next year are a million over 2.8M, will you admit COVID-19 isn't a fake virus? Will you admit that it's worse than the Flu?

I'm fascinated that you to actually believe the CDC figures and aren't accusing them of falsifying the numbers, low balling them to make Obama look good or something equally silly.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm
NOTES: A total of 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States in 2018.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

Based on the cases and deaths, I was afraid we would hit the 62,000 before the end of the month based on the math. It's looking like that will definitely happen.

At least NY seems to be on the downward slope but other states have still not peaked. We may not see less than 1,000 deaths a day until mid May. At this point the question is whether we can keep it under 75,000 by the end of May. I am not optimistic that we can.

I saw a lot of people were wearing masks last week when it was first announced, often over 50%. Then this week it seems to have dropped off, maybe 25%. That doesn't bode well for keeping this on a downward slope.

Evolution in action. Little laboratories of democracy spread across 50 states. It's going to be a very memorable summer!

 

[Dutch Uncle]

May 3rd; be there or be square.

The nation could see over 62,000 Americans dead from COVID-19 by Cinco de Mayo. As sane people know, this is on top of all normal flu and other disease deaths. One thing we might see a drop in is auto deaths; people are making kamikaze attacks on each other trying to get to work because of the shutdown.

If this rate stays the same, it could be over 180,000 dead Americans from COVID-19 by Election Day.

From last March 15th:

Trump weaseled out of the rallies after telling everyone for weeks that it's nothing worse than the flu and that the Democrats were making too big of a deal about it.

I think we're in for at least six more weeks of it; a first, second and third week due to the 14-day max incubation period, but, yes, it could be over by the 4th of July.

OTOH, we might have something to celebrate on Cinco de Mayo! Maybe even Easter!

 

[Dutch Uncle]

2.5 million deaths occur in the US every year.

...and this year it will be 2.5 million deaths plus another 180,000+....especially if we open up the country like it was mid-January.

Biologically, it will be good to cull the herd of the weak, the elderly and the sick.

Is it better to have 3-9M dead Americans but the remaining 97% are healthy, happy and prosperous? or is it better to have 1M dead and the remaining 99% are poor and financially ruined?

 

[PoliTalker]

Looks like the US will go over a million total confirmed cases by Tuesday at the current rate.

 

[PoliTalker]

Just from studying the graphs, estimating future curves:

I don't see how we could avoid going over 100,000 deaths total, just in the first wave. I think this will occur before election day. We are already over halfway there in numbers with months to go. Warm weather doesn't seem to slow it down. Big numbers in Miami.

And it is very likely it could go over 200,000 total US deaths before a vax is found.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

In 2018, a total of 2,839,205 resident deaths
were registered in the United States
—25,702 more deaths than in 2017. ...

This year we'll not only see the projected annual increase but an additional 180K+ due to COVID-19.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

Just from studying the graphs, estimating future curves:

I don't see how we could avoid going over 100,000 deaths total, just in the first wave. I think this will occur before election day. We are already over halfway there in numbers with months to go. Warm weather doesn't seem to slow it down. Big numbers in Miami.

And it is very likely it could go over 200,000 total US deaths before a vax is found.

Losing 2000/day means we'll be pushing 180,000 by election day. Open the country up and, without a cure or vaccine, we'll see it climb to the millions.

Here's the dilemma. Our nation wasn't prepared for this. It's cut taxes and increased spending so much that it is now just printing money. So, "Is it better to have 3-9M dead Americans but the remaining 97% are healthy, happy and prosperous? or is it better to have 1M dead and the remaining 99% are poor and financially ruined?"

 

[Poor Richard Saunders]

The nation could see over 62,000 Americans dead from COVID-19 by Cinco de Mayo. As sane people know, this is on top of all normal flu and other disease deaths. One thing we might see a drop in is auto deaths; people are making kamikaze attacks on each other trying to get to work because of the shutdown.

If this rate stays the same, it could be over 180,000 dead Americans from COVID-19 by Election Day.

There has been an increase in auto deaths in some areas. Fewer people on the road means some people are driving faster and higher speeds lead to higher mortality in accidents.

I hope it doesn't get to 180,000. The key is going to be social distancing and when the next wave hits. If it does die down this summer we could be lulled into complacency come next Oct/Nov when it comes back.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

There has been an increase in auto deaths in some areas. Fewer people on the road means some people are driving faster and higher speeds lead to higher mortality in accidents.

I hope it doesn't get to 180,000. The key is going to be social distancing and when the next wave hits. If it does die down this summer we could be lulled into complacency come next Oct/Nov when it comes back.

An interesting point. However, I'm guessing the overall auto fatality rate will take a dip as long as most of the nation is at home.

The 180,000 is with social distancing. Without it, I think we'll all eventually be infected unless a vaccine is found. At that point, a nation of 328M will see the full fatality rate of 3%+.....about 9M.

2000 dead/day x ( 6 months x 30/days per month) = 360,000. I'm hedging my bets with 180,000.

 

[PoliTalker]

Hello Dutch Uncle,

Losing 2000/day means we'll be pushing 180,000 by election day. Open the country up and, without a cure or vaccine, we'll see it climb to the millions.

Here's the dilemma. Our nation wasn't prepared for this. It's cut taxes and increased spending so much that it is now just printing money. So, "Is it better to have 3-9M dead Americans but the remaining 97% are healthy, happy and prosperous? or is it better to have 1M dead and the remaining 99% are poor and financially ruined?"

I don't see the 99% being financially ruined. Most people who are well off now will still be well off after it's over. Just like so many threats, it hits the poor the hardest. Since the lower 50% of America was not well off, they are the ones who will bear the brunt of it. The tough part will be raising taxes on the super-rich to pay for it. Something tells me that will be resisted.

The way I see it, it is not a matter of whether or not taxes on the super-rich will have to be raised.

The only question is how much.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

Hello Dutch Uncle,

I don't see the 99% being financially ruined. Most people who are well off now will still be well off after it's over. Just like so many threats, it hits the poor the hardest. Since the lower 50% of America was not well off, they are the ones who will bear the brunt of it. The tough part will be raising taxes on the super-rich to pay for it. Something tells me that will be resisted.

The way I see it, it is not a matter of whether or not taxes on the super-rich will have to be raised.

The only question is how much.

Sure, all the CEOs at the corporations will be fine. Walmart will be fine as will most chains but all the little Mom & Pop shops and restaurants will be "Lease Available" signs in their windows after 6-8 months of this.

How long do you think the nation needs to shut down, if at all? Do you expect Georgia, Jacksonville and the other states and cities that "open up" will see a rise in COVID-19 cases? No rise? A decline?

 

[Concart]

Hello Dutch Uncle,



I don't see the 99% being financially ruined. Most people who are well off now will still be well off after it's over. Just like so many threats, it hits the poor the hardest. Since the lower 50% of America was not well off, they are the ones who will bear the brunt of it. The tough part will be raising taxes on the super-rich to pay for it. Something tells me that will be resisted.

The way I see it, it is not a matter of whether or not taxes on the super-rich will have to be raised.

The only question is how much.

I said to someone just a couple of months back that Elizabeth Warrens wealth tax would never be implemented. I think this may change that equation, and that's a good thing, so I think maybe even MORE than raising taxes on the rich. It makes sense. I guess that's the silver lining. I think this will cause everyone to rethink the growing wage/wealth gap.

 

[Teflon Don]

As of April 16th, there have been over 31,000 US deaths from COVID-19. The first documented US death was on February 29th. With social distancing and other measures, the curve of illnesses is flattening, but deaths will continue.

The poll question is simple: if the nation continues to keep shut down without a vaccine, a cure or access to speedy, cheap testing, will there be more than the high end of projected US flu deaths (62,000) or less by the November election?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

There will be no vaccine but you stay under your bed forever so you never ever come in contact with bugs that might give you the sniffle wiffles

 

[Dutch Uncle]

There will be no vaccine but you stay under your bed forever so you never ever come in contact with bugs that might give you the sniffle wiffles

ROFL It's really sad, Don, that you feel perpetually compelled to boast about your manhood and demean that of others by lying.

I'm enjoying life, go whenever I want. Was outside for a few hours today until it became too hot. By your posts, I think it's you who secretly wants to be under the covers and plugging your ears. Obviously you're afraid of death and denial that one can die is the most common form of dealing with death.

No worries. It's very peaceful and light. You'll wonder why you didn't go sooner.

The 180,000 is with social distancing. Without it, I think we'll all eventually be infected unless a vaccine is found. At that point, a nation of 328M will see the full fatality rate of 3%+.....about 9M.

2000 dead/day x ( 6 months x 30/days per month) = 360,000. I'm hedging my bets with 180,000.

 

[Poor Richard Saunders]

An interesting point. However, I'm guessing the overall auto fatality rate will take a dip as long as most of the nation is at home.

The 180,000 is with social distancing. Without it, I think we'll all eventually be infected unless a vaccine is found. At that point, a nation of 328M will see the full fatality rate of 3%+.....about 9M.

2000 dead/day x ( 6 months x 30/days per month) = 360,000. I'm hedging my bets with 180,000.

I really don't see that happening. I'm not saying it won't but we are seeing the number of new cases leveling off even with more testing. That likely means the number of new cases is actually dropping at this point. In 3 weeks we could be back down to 1000 deaths per day. There may be some spikes as other places become hot spots but if NY and NJ get their mortality down to half of what it is now followed by MA and MI we could finally be down to a bad flu death rate which can hit 4000 a week.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

I really don't see that happening. I'm not saying it won't but we are seeing the number of new cases leveling off even with more testing. That likely means the number of new cases is actually dropping at this point. In 3 weeks we could be back down to 1000 deaths per day. There may be some spikes as other places become hot spots but if NY and NJ get their mortality down to half of what it is now followed by MA and MI we could finally be down to a bad flu death rate which can hit 4000 a week.

Leveling off in NYC or across the nation? The high numbers are predicated to "opening the country" Testing is not a cure. It can spot trends but opening and closing cities every 1-3 months isn't going to work.

 

[PoliTalker]

Hello Dutch Uncle,

Sure, all the CEOs at the corporations will be fine. Walmart will be fine as will most chains but all the little Mom & Pop shops and restaurants will be "Lease Available" signs in their windows after 6-8 months of this.

How long do you think the nation needs to shut down, if at all? Do you expect Georgia, Jacksonville and the other states and cities that "open up" will see a rise in COVID-19 cases? No rise? A decline?

I would expect to see a second peak where the openings have occurred. It is an interesting experiment with life and death in the balance. But the results will give us some insight. If it really has spread far and wide beyond what our limited testing indicates, the second wave will not be so bad. But if it hasn't, then it will be bad. Not a smart risk to take. I disagree with the early openings. Why gamble with lives?

If the results are not bad it means it already circulated farther and wider than known, and most showed little to no symptoms. But if not, then we'll sadly see lots more death.

 

[Poor Richard Saunders]

Hello Dutch Uncle,



I don't see the 99% being financially ruined. Most people who are well off now will still be well off after it's over. Just like so many threats, it hits the poor the hardest. Since the lower 50% of America was not well off, they are the ones who will bear the brunt of it. The tough part will be raising taxes on the super-rich to pay for it. Something tells me that will be resisted.

A number of people making low wages may actually be better off being unemployed. Texas average unemployment is $246 a week. If someone was making $15 an hour and got laid off and are now getting $150 a week in TX unemployment plus the $600 a week Federal bump, they would actually be better off. This would be true in any state that is adding the $600. The problem is those people that were laid off and aren't eligible for unemployment Those are the ones that will really be hurting. I just hope most of those people if they work for a small business will go back to work if their employer gets a PPP loan. In the long run it might be the best thing for them by extending their unemployment out the extra 2 months after the PPP runs out.

The way I see it, it is not a matter of whether or not taxes on the super-rich will have to be raised.

The only question is how much.

Taxes are going to have to go back up for the upper middle class. Likely those making more than $150,000. The real key here is how we treat businesses. If they aren't domiciled in the US they shouldn't get any bail out money. There needs to be consequences for avoiding US taxes. All those companies that did tax inversions should be told, "Too bad. Go ask Ireland or the Bahamas for help."

 

[Poor Richard Saunders]

Leveling off in NYC or across the nation? The high numbers are predicated to "opening the country" Testing is not a cure. It can spot trends but opening and closing cities every 1-3 months isn't going to work.

More people testing positive isn't indicative of more people being infected. It is just that we are testing more of them that are.

As we test more, we will be better able to spot trends. We will also have a better handle on the true mortality rate. As long as we don't overwhelm the hospitals, I think it will be in the 1-2% range. We may see "Covid check in" at public places. You have to agree to give contact information whenever you go to a restaurant or store so if someone becomes infected there is a way to trace contacts.