there is no skill in "predicting" the election this far out. You are just guessing. I could predict I take a shit at 9pm tonight. Maybe I will, maybe I wont. Depends on how many buffalo wings I eat.
2016 Election electoral vote predictions
- Thread starter Mott the Hoople
- Start date
there is no skill in "predicting" the election this far out. You are just guessing. I could predict I take a shit at 9pm tonight. Maybe I will, maybe I wont. Depends on how many buffalo wings I eat.
FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
Silver's models still rely on national polls. Obviously he takes state polls into account, but just taking a state poll here or there would not produce the accuracy that he is known for. That's not how the electoral college works. The state totals are reliant on the national totals, and should be adjusted with them in mind (it's stupid to take a poll in Missouri from two weeks ago, for instance, at face value because it's the most recent poll, when the national polls have moved a lot in that time and thus Missouri has probably changed as well).
FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
It's going to be wrong.
Minister of Truth
Practically Perfect
That was my predicton.
I "think" that I'll wait for the only poll that matters on Nov. 08, 2016. I'll let you know my opinion on Nov. 09...that is if there are no "hanging" chads to count. or the discovery of a trunk full of uncounted absentee ballots in Liberal La La Land.....or a court case demanding that the recently dead who died before the actual election day that cast absentee ballots should count....its just to bad that the unborn don't have the same rights as the dead. 
When is the deadline?
state polls are usually more accurate as they will be more recent
FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
What? National polls are taken much more frequently than state polls.
Legionthecat
Double Platinum Catroll
Clinton 386
Trumpf 152
Trumpf 152
right now yes but not when the election ramps up. also a national poll doesn't tell us much given we don't have a national election. but you knew that.
FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
Yeah it does, given that state polls are dependent variables with regards to the national polls. Whoever wins the popular vote is almost certainly going to win the electoral vote, due to the way the FPTP system works. So it's correct in 99% of cases. But "it tells us nothing".
The further out you make your prediction the more impressive it will be if its correct, and the less embarrassing it will be if you are incorrect.
Remember PiMP's prediction about Romney winning Michigan by 10 points the night before the election?
Minister of Truth
Practically Perfect
Fairly sure he made it much further out than the night before. 
Fairly sure he made it much further out than the night before.
He was repeating it the night before.
Exclaiming that the polls were wrong, the poor people moved away or died and only Republicans were left.
Obama did not really save the auto industry, blah blah blah.
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
Tennessee (11)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
Montana (3)
Indiana (11)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
South Carolina (9)
Texas (38)
Georgia (16)
Arizona (11)
Missouri (10)
Utah (6)
Ohio (18)
Iowa (6)
TRUMP 215
Iowa (6)
Minnesota (10)
Virginia (13)
Connecticut (7)
North Carolina (15)
Florida (29)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Pennsylvania (20)
Maine (4)
Michigan (16)
New Jersey (14)
Oregon (7)
Washington (12)
Wisconsin (10)
California (55)
Delaware (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
New York (29)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Colorado (9)
CLINTON 320
My prediction, I might change it, but if I don't and get it correct it will be pretty awesome.
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
Tennessee (11)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
Montana (3)
Indiana (11)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
South Carolina (9)
Texas (38)
Georgia (16)
Arizona (11)
Missouri (10)
Utah (6)
Ohio (18)
Iowa (6)
TRUMP 215
Iowa (6)
Minnesota (10)
Virginia (13)
Connecticut (7)
North Carolina (15)
Florida (29)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Pennsylvania (20)
Maine (4)
Michigan (16)
New Jersey (14)
Oregon (7)
Washington (12)
Wisconsin (10)
California (55)
Delaware (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
New York (29)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Colorado (9)
CLINTON 320
My prediction, I might change it, but if I don't and get it correct it will be pretty awesome.
Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
You can't possibly be right. You forgot to include the District of Columbia in your tally.
Minister of Truth
Practically Perfect
It's all good. DC shouldn't have any electoral votes, anyway, because it's not actually a state.
Oops, add D.C. 3 more for Clinton
D.C. Goes to Clinton 323