538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election

[Walt]

Donald Trump Opens 31 Offices in Michigan​

You really should have read the article before posting the headline.

The beginning of the article, "
Today, Donald Trump’s campaign announced the opening of 31 offices across Michigan by early April, in contrast to the Michigan Democratic Party and the Biden-Harris campaign opening only 30 offices by mid-April.

APRIL FOOLS. Trump is “broke as heck.” Michigan Democrats are the only ones with real campaign infrastructure. "

It was a joke. trump does not have 31 offices in Michigan. He has no ground came in Michigan.

trump's complete lack of a ground game will cost him somewhere between 1 and 5 percent of the vote. That may not be enough to lose the election, but it certainly does not help.

And there is no good reason for it. It is not part of some great strategy. trump is just incompetent, and it is coming out in this way.

 

[Walt]

Dude.

Check the date on that link.

April 1st.

Also, the clown emoji in the headline indicates that this is a joke.

You got suckered by an April Fool's Day Post because you're a fucking fool.

It is sad that trumpers are stuck with jokes to support their joke of a candidate.

 

[martin]

Biden's Lead at 538 up a tic.

The President neutralized Trump's months long lead a few days ago and has remained fractionally ahead since.

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Walt]

I agree it is a fact that every president in US history has won the electoral college vote.

You are wrong. Ford never won an Electoral College vote, and he was definitely President.

 

[Walt]

Electoral College outcomes generated by our forecasting model stretches from 132 to 445 electoral votes for Biden — a testament to how much things could change by November (and how off the polls could be).

That sentence is the most important sentence of predicting this election.

 

[LurchAddams]

538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election

538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election


This is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.

Trump is now favored to win the election in November, with 538’s simulations using polling, economic, and demographic data show a four-point lead over Biden.
In the early afternoon, 538 projected Trump winning 50 out of 100 times with Biden winning 49 out of 100 times in their simulations. In a 2 pm update, Trump’s lead grew, with the former president winning 52 out of 100 times and Biden winning 48 out of 100 times the simulation was run.

Of 1,000 simulations run, Trump came out on top in 509 of them, while Biden won in 487 of the runs. There was no winner in 4 of the simulations. 538 states that its forecast "is based on a combination of polls and campaign 'fundamentals,' such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to 'call' a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win." As Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk noted, this is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.
https://thepostmillennial.com/538-f...nner-of-2024-election-for-first-time-ever?cfp

Isn't 538 the same organization that forecasted a Hillary Clinton win? Yes, I believe this to be the case:

Nate Silver says conventional wisdom, not data, killed 2016 election forecasts

Don’t blame data analytics for Trump’s unexpected victory, Nate Silver says, blame political reporting’s conventional wisdom.

news.harvard.edu

On Election Day, nearly every public polling firm predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency. The only real debate was by how large a margin. Even leading statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight.com gave Donald Trump a less than 1 in 3 chance of winning.

Silly trumptard!

 

[martin]

Isn't 538 the same organization that forecasted a Hillary Clinton win? Yes, I believe this to be the case:





View attachment 27243

Silly trumptard!

Yes, but every poll had Hillary ahead. Overall, 538 has the best record of any national poll. Disgusting as the Trump "stolen election" shrieking has been, imagine what it would be if Trump had been ahead in the polls on election day like Hillary was instead of behind, and he was behind outside the margin of error. The final 538 poll had Biden up more than 8 points.

 

[LurchAddams]

Yes, but every poll had Hillary ahead. Overall, 538 has the best record of any national poll. Disgusting as the Trump "stolen election" shrieking has been, imagine what it would be if Trump had been ahead in the polls on election day like Hillary was instead of behind, and he was behind outside the margin of error. The final 538 poll had Biden up more than 8 points.

It doesn't matter. Trump claimed the 2016 election was rigged because he lost the popular vote. There's no election Trump will ever be happy with where he doesn't crush the other side.

 

[Yakuda]

You are wrong. Ford never won an Electoral College vote, and he was definitely President.

True but I said won the electoral college vote. He didn't run president.

 

[martin]

Biden still ahead today, even up another tic. Nice that a Trumper started this thread.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society.

abcnews.go.com

 

[An Orange Cat]

Okay... I vaguely remember them saying she'd get around 300 electoral votes but my memory could be faulty.

The polls never showed that. All the polls measured was the popular vote.