538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election

Yakuda said:
I agree it is a fact that every president in US history has won the electoral college vote. I love agreement. Dont you feel warm all over? I mean apart from when you piss yourself.
Click to expand...
Every President didn't.

You better change your pants.
 
Yakuda said:
Which one(s) didnt.
Click to expand...

John Quincy Adams won fewer than 100 electoral votes in the 1824 election; three other candidates won the majority between them with Andrew Jackson winning even more than Adams did, the other two other candidates winning the rest. With no one winning a majority, the election went to the House, which elected Adams.
 
martin said:
John Quincy Adams won fewer than 100 electoral votes in the 1824 election; three other candidates won the majority between them with Andrew Jackson winning even more than Adams did, the other two other candidates winning the rest. With no one winning a majority, the election went to the House, which elected Adams.
Click to expand...
Ironically enough the guy with fewer popular votes.
 
archives said:
Were they?

Guarantee if they could see the way national elections with the electoral college are done they wouldn’t approve, their intent has been bastardized by politicians ever since with bogus arguements and interpretations of Article II
Click to expand...

Poor anchovies,
Try changing it to whatever you want. I'll wait. Until then, blow it out your ass
 
ExpressLane said:
So you are saying 538 was right in its predictions.
Click to expand...
Usually is. Of course a prediction of 89 chances out of a 100 is a bit different from 52 chances out of 100, and June is a bit different from November.
Nevertheless, if this polling continues to election day Biden's chances will be grim. Democrats always do better with the people than they do with the EC so even a small Trump lead in the polls would be a very bad sign if it holds up. No point in sugar coating it.
 
Earl said:
538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election

538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election


This is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.

Trump is now favored to win the election in November, with 538’s simulations using polling, economic, and demographic data show a four-point lead over Biden.
In the early afternoon, 538 projected Trump winning 50 out of 100 times with Biden winning 49 out of 100 times in their simulations. In a 2 pm update, Trump’s lead grew, with the former president winning 52 out of 100 times and Biden winning 48 out of 100 times the simulation was run.

Of 1,000 simulations run, Trump came out on top in 509 of them, while Biden won in 487 of the runs. There was no winner in 4 of the simulations. 538 states that its forecast "is based on a combination of polls and campaign 'fundamentals,' such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to 'call' a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win." As Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk noted, this is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.
https://thepostmillennial.com/538-f...nner-of-2024-election-for-first-time-ever?cfp
Click to expand...

Do NOT get over confident.

The Marxists have a machine that will squeeze every vote out, from legal citizens, illegal aliens via proxy voting, and the usual dead voters.

The vote harvesting apparatus of the democrats is based on early voting - so the democrats know who has not voted well before the election, and can either convince them, or vote in their name.

The Americans tend to shy away from early voting. I oppose it but will do it as long as it is the rule. IF the Marxists are allowed to game the system as they did in 20 and 22, they could still come out on top, regardless of popular support for Trump. The Americans have to be smart and play using the same rules as the democrats - or be prepared to be defrauded out of power again.

And if Biden is put back in office, there will never be another free and fair election. Those are the consequences of screwing this up.

Vote by mail, vote early. If you are in the 19 states that support it, participate in ballot harvesting - the democrats will do it, the Americans must as well.
 
Jarod said:
1) That did not happen.
2) If a lawyer is caught lying in court he would get disbarred.
Click to expand...

If a lawyer is caught lying in court he would get disbarred. IF HE IS A REPUBLICAN.

Jack Smith got caught lying to the Supreme Court and was PROMOTED.

Party matters - pretty much nothing else does.
 
ExpressLane said:
Four states exploited the COVID-19 pandemic to justify ignoring federal and state election laws and unlawfully enacting last-minute changes. The CONSTITUTION which Democrats ignore says ONLY the State legislature has the right to make election law. So I stand by my statement that Democrats bent election laws to get Biden elected.
Click to expand...
Well, then the GOP should have taken those cases to court to get them overturned.

Oh, wait. THEY DID.

And the cases were thrown out as they should have been.
 
Earl said:
538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election

538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election


This is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.

Trump is now favored to win the election in November, with 538’s simulations using polling, economic, and demographic data show a four-point lead over Biden.
In the early afternoon, 538 projected Trump winning 50 out of 100 times with Biden winning 49 out of 100 times in their simulations. In a 2 pm update, Trump’s lead grew, with the former president winning 52 out of 100 times and Biden winning 48 out of 100 times the simulation was run.

Of 1,000 simulations run, Trump came out on top in 509 of them, while Biden won in 487 of the runs. There was no winner in 4 of the simulations. 538 states that its forecast "is based on a combination of polls and campaign 'fundamentals,' such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to 'call' a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win." As Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk noted, this is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.
https://thepostmillennial.com/538-f...nner-of-2024-election-for-first-time-ever?cfp
Click to expand...
How utterly fascinating. You don't quote 538 directly; instead you use a questionable, biased source. Just retrieved from 538 45 seconds ago:

Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast​

Today 538 published our official forecast for the 2024 presidential election. The model builds on our general election polling averages by asking not just what our best guess is about who is leading the presidential race today, but what range of outcomes are possible for the actual election in November. At least once per day, we'll rerun our simulations of the election with the latest data, so bookmark our interactive and check back often.

At launch, our forecast shows President Joe Biden locked in a practically tied race with former President Donald Trump, both in the Electoral College and national popular vote. Specifically, our model reckons Biden has a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election, meaning he wins in slightly more than half of our model's simulations of how the election could unfold. However, Trump still has a 47-in-100 chance, so this election could still very much go either way. The range of realistic* Electoral College outcomes generated by our forecasting model stretches from 132 to 445 electoral votes for Biden — a testament to how much things could change by November (and how off the polls could be).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top